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Severe Potential March 2nd/3rd: OV, TN Valley, Mid-South, Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas


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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 58

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

TORNADO WATCH 58 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC005-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-041-043-047-059-061-065-071-

077-079-093-095-115-117-123-135-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-177-

030200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

IN

. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK

CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR

DELAWARE DUBOIS FAYETTE

FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK

HARRISON HENRY JACKSON

JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE

MADISON OHIO ORANGE

PERRY RANDOLPH RIPLEY

RUSH SCOTT SHELBY

SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON

WAYNE

KYC001-003-005-009-011-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-

049-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-

099-103-109-111-113-117-123-125-135-137-141-147-151-155-161-163-

165-167-169-171-173-179-181-183-185-187-191-197-199-201-203-205-

207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-239-030200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

KY

. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON

BARREN BATH BOONE

BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN

BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER

CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY

CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND

EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE

FLEMING FRANKLIN GALLATIN

GARRARD GRANT GRAYSON

GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN

HARRISON HART HENRY

JACKSON JEFFERSON JESSAMINE

KENTON LARUE LAUREL

LEWIS LINCOLN LOGAN

MADISON MARION MASON

MCCREARY MEADE MENIFEE

MERCER METCALF MONROE

MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS

OHIO OLDHAM OWEN

PENDLETON POWELL PULASKI

ROBERTSON ROCKCASTLE ROWAN

RUSSELL SCOTT SHELBY

SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR

TRIMBLE WARREN WASHINGTON

WAYNE WOODFORD

OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061-

065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-135-141-145-149-159-

165-030200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

OH

. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AUGLAIZE BROWN

BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK

CLERMONT CLINTON DARKE

DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE

FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON

HARDIN HIGHLAND HOCKING

LICKING LOGAN MADISON

MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY

PICKAWAY PIKE PREBLE

ROSS SCIOTO SHELBY

UNION WARREN

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...LMK...JKL...

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

	  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
	  CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
	  SOUTHWEST OHIO

  EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
  PM EST.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
  DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.  FOR
  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

  DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
  EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
  STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


  ...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate
Note:  See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
  SEL8

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

	  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
	  CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
	  SOUTHWEST OHIO

  EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
  PM EST.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  NUMEROUS TORNADOES
  INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
  WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
  HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
  DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.  FOR
  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

  DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
  EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
  STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


  ...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate

  SEL8

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

	  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
	  CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
	  SOUTHWEST OHIO

  EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
  PM EST.

  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

  DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
  DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.  FOR
  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

  DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
  EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
  STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


  ...MEAD
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
  WOUS64 KWNS 021800
  WOU8

  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 58
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

  TORNADO WATCH 58 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR THE
   FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

  INC005-013-019-025-029-031-035-037-041-043-047-059-061-065-071-
  077-079-093-095-115-117-123-135-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-177-
  030200-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

  IN
  .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

  BARTHOLOMEW		  BROWN			   CLARK			  
  CRAWFORD			 DEARBORN		    DECATUR			
  DELAWARE			 DUBOIS			  FAYETTE			
  FLOYD			    FRANKLIN		    HANCOCK			
  HARRISON			 HENRY			   JACKSON			
  JEFFERSON		    JENNINGS		    LAWRENCE		   
  MADISON			  OHIO			    ORANGE			 
  PERRY			    RANDOLPH		    RIPLEY			 
  RUSH				 SCOTT			   SHELBY			 
  SWITZERLAND		  UNION			   WASHINGTON		 
  WAYNE			   


  KYC001-003-005-009-011-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-
  049-053-057-061-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-
  099-103-109-111-113-117-123-125-135-137-141-147-151-155-161-163-
  165-167-169-171-173-179-181-183-185-187-191-197-199-201-203-205-
  207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-231-239-030200-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

  KY
  .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

  ADAIR			    ALLEN			   ANDERSON		   
  BARREN			   BATH			    BOONE			  
  BOURBON			  BOYLE			   BRACKEN			
  BRECKINRIDGE		 BULLITT			 BUTLER			 
  CAMPBELL			 CARROLL			 CASEY			  
  CLARK			    CLINTON			 CUMBERLAND		 
  EDMONSON			 ESTILL			  FAYETTE			
  FLEMING			  FRANKLIN		    GALLATIN		   
  GARRARD			  GRANT			   GRAYSON			
  GREEN			    HANCOCK			 HARDIN			 
  HARRISON			 HART			    HENRY			  
  JACKSON			  JEFFERSON		   JESSAMINE		  
  KENTON			   LARUE			   LAUREL			 
  LEWIS			    LINCOLN			 LOGAN			  
  MADISON			  MARION			  MASON			  
  MCCREARY			 MEADE			   MENIFEE			
  MERCER			   METCALF			 MONROE			 
  MONTGOMERY		   NELSON			  NICHOLAS		   
  OHIO				 OLDHAM			  OWEN			   
  PENDLETON		    POWELL			  PULASKI			
  ROBERTSON		    ROCKCASTLE		  ROWAN			  
  RUSSELL			  SCOTT			   SHELBY			 
  SIMPSON			  SPENCER			 TAYLOR			 
  TRIMBLE			  WARREN			  WASHINGTON		 
  WAYNE			    WOODFORD		   


  OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061-
  065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-135-141-145-149-159-
  165-030200-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0058.120302T1805Z-120303T0200Z/

  OH
  .    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

  ADAMS			    AUGLAIZE		    BROWN			  
  BUTLER			   CHAMPAIGN		   CLARK			  
  CLERMONT			 CLINTON			 DARKE			  
  DELAWARE			 FAIRFIELD		   FAYETTE			
  FRANKLIN			 GREENE			  HAMILTON		   
  HARDIN			   HIGHLAND		    HOCKING			
  LICKING			  LOGAN			   MADISON			
  MERCER			   MIAMI			   MONTGOMERY		 
  PICKAWAY			 PIKE			    PREBLE			 
  ROSS				 SCIOTO			  SHELBY			 
  UNION			    WARREN			 


  ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...LMK...JKL...



Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High High
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
High Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
  SAW8
  WW 58 TORNADO IN KY OH 021805Z - 030200Z
  AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
  25NNE DAY/DAYTON OH/ - 30SE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /3S ROD - 25SE BWG/
  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
  MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

  LAT...LON 40228205 36658413 36658793 40228602

  THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
  FOR WOU8.

Watch 58 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

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High resolution mesoscale models exist mainly for nowcasting/short term and can help bring attention to areas of future development.

Guess I could have worded that better.

No doubt Meso discussions help out big time in short range forecasting. I think the poster was referring to models predicting individual storms popping up on simulated radars. Those things are pretty useless and are rarely accurate.

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Ugly storm just east of Norris City, IL. Headed for the northern part of Evansville, IN

I've been watching this one closesly, from KPAH at 5-6k feet the gtg winds have consistently been 100-140 kts. However, the scans from KVWX have just shown some relatively weak rotation. It could produce a very strong tornado at literally any time.

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Southern IN into southwestern OH appears to be the greatest concern for significant/violent tornadoes going forward. This area is closer to the surface low and has access to the backed surface flow. I'm more skeptical of areas further south, say southern KY into TN, because the surface flow is already quite veered.

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