CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Certainly an ominous image from the HRRR (13Z in case you were wondering). The moisture feed off the Gulf is impressive, warm temperatures, dew points in the low to mid 60s, and a fair amount of shear. I know many are concerned about folks in Kentucky and Tennessee (completely agree with that!) but don't fall asleep for those in Alabama... STP values already up to 5 near Alabama and Mississippi border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Developing supercells beginning to take shape approaching the PDS area. If I had to guess, I would say the storm south of St. Louis moving into Illinois could eventually be one of the first major players of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 That's the new 1.33km NAM Nest mainly for Fire weather or other emergency operations Is it available on a link somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Gradient winds here are sustained in the 20s and 30s - I have had a 52 and 54 mph gust in the last 30 minutes. Just from winds ahead of the front and the deepening low. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Is it available on a link somewhere? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Wow... Already lots of reports of damage and it's only noon. Please be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Hm. I'm really concerned that there is not a watch out yet for areas of Central KY and extreme Southern IN. Hopefully SPC issues that really soon. Sunshine breaking through the clouds here in Louisville. Destabilization should be commencing rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Damage from Athens, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Heads up, Beau.. moving your way. * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 1130 AM CST. * AT 1103 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELLSINORE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep..../mmbpll/firewx/ Yeah thats it, sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Hm. I'm really concerned that there is not a watch out yet for areas of Central KY and extreme Southern IN. Hopefully SPC issues that really soon. Sunshine breaking through the clouds here in Louisville. Destabilization should be commencing rapidly. I'd be more concerned that Cantore is in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN IND...NERN KY...MUCH OF OH AND ADJACENT WEST VIRGINIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021630Z - 021800Z A WATCH IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ONE PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE...MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ADVECTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 03/02/2012 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It looks like several models are keying in on a major supercell in central Kentucky later...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1126 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL NOON CST. * AT 1120 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR GREENVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS ROTATION SOUTHEAST OF GREENVILLE MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MARBLE HILL...GRASSY...LEOPOLD AND ZALMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Chattanooga under the gun shortly, couplet ramping up, and the storm has turned right, moving directly at the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Arrived in Seymour, IN. Clouds yet to lift here. Crunching data to see where I'm headed from here. Low level clouds moving out of the south at a brisk pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It looks like several models are keying in on a major supercell in central Kentucky later...? Where in central KY? link/image? On phone right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MOC017-021800- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120302T1800Z/ BOLLINGER MO- 1136 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL NOON CST... AT 1135 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF GRASSY...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ADVANCE...NEAR ZALMA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. MORE THAN LIKELY YOU WILL NOT SEE THIS TORNADO UNTIL IT IS UPON YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Certainly an ominous image from the HRRR (13Z in case you were wondering). The moisture feed off the Gulf is impressive, warm temperatures, dew points in the low to mid 60s, and a fair amount of shear. I know many are concerned about folks in Kentucky and Tennessee (completely agree with that!) but don't fall asleep for those in Alabama... STP values already up to 5 near Alabama and Mississippi border. That is one ugly image for those in Alabama, they have seen that all too many times in the last couple of years. Temps up to 76 already in Birmingham. Hope james Spann got some rest last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Chattanooga cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 100 kts G2G at 3500 feet AGL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 100 kts G2G at 3500 feet AGL. Very strong couplet, going to cross I-75 very soon and pass very close to Cleveland TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Very strong couplet, going to cross I-75 very soon and pass very close to Cleveland TN Looks to be passing over Harrison Bay atm....very residential area on the other side of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 up to 117kts gtg* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA...FAR SWRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56... VALID 021746Z - 021815Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 56 CONTINUES. RADAR IMAGERY FROM 1740Z SHOWS ONGOING SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS MIDDLE TN ATTM...WITH TORNADOES REPORTED IN THE PAST HR. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KTS...INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE THE AIR MASS IS RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING AOA 60 DEG F...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AS THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES FURTHER...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS SHOULD EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING TSTMS. FARTHER S...TSTMS HAVE MOVED NEWD OUT OF NRN AL...WITH SCT CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY...WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED. A NE-SW ORIENTED COULD BAND /NOTED ON VISIBLE/...PRESUMABLY CO-LOCATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CINH IS WEAK TO NIL. BOTH 14Z WRF-HRRR AND 12Z WRF-NMM SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...REDEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER 21Z. ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1250 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... POLK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 115 PM EST * AT 1244 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR OOTELWAH...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... CLEVELAND...BENTON...CHARLESTON...MCDONALD...WATERVILLE... HOPEWELL...TASSO...CALHOUN AND DENTVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1151 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ILC055-065-165-021800- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120302T1800Z/ SALINE IL-FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL- 1151 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL NOON CST... A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS JUST BEEN REPORTED AT 1149 AM BOUNCING UP AND DOWN NEAR THOMPSONVILLE. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. AT 1143 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THOMPSONVILLE...OR 5 MILES EAST OF WEST FRANKFORT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND A FUNNEL CLOUD AS IT PASSED OVER WEST FRANKFORT. THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE COUNTY LINE OF HAMILTON AND SALINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I wouldn't be observing models anymore at this point. This is nowcasting from here on out. High resolution mesoscale models exist mainly for nowcasting/short term and can help bring attention to areas of future development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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