Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Severe Potential March 2nd/3rd: OV, TN Valley, Mid-South, Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1002 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 021602Z - 021730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55

CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. AREAS

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL

NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE ST. LOUIS MO

AREA INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA BETWEEN NOW AND 19-21Z...AN AREA OF

ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT

TO ITS EAST MAY BECOME OF FOCUS FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MATTOON/CHARLESTON

AND TERRE HAUTE AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING

NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER

DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...INCLUDING LARGE

CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS... WILL SUPPORT INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR

PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO A

CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

1013 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC071-089-TNC051-103-021630-

/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120302T1630Z/

JACKSON AL-MADISON AL-FRANKLIN TN-LINCOLN TN-

1013 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CST FOR

SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN MADISON

AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 1012 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOORES MILL ROAD AND EAKIN ROAD...JUST EAST

OF THE MERIDIANVILLE AIRPORT MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A

TORNADO EMERGENCY...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW

MARKET...PLEVNA...ELORA...PRINCETON...FRANCISCO...LARKIN...

HUNTLAND...BEANS CREEK AND ESTILLFORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND

AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO

THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

1018 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC071-TNC051-021645-

/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120302T1645Z/

JACKSON AL-FRANKLIN TN-

1018 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CST FOR SOUTHERN

FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 1017 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANCISCO...OR

ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN LIMESTONE AND

MADISON COUNTIES. ANOTHER TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM IS

FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND...SO BE ALERT FOR FOLLOWING TORNADO

WARNINGS THIS MORNING.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

JERICHO...COWAN...SHERWOOD...SEWANEE AND ST. ANDREWS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Intersection of Charlie Patterson Road and Walker Lane in Madison County, AL. Reports of multiple homes damaged/destroyed with potential injuries. Per Madison County Police/Fire scanner.

Quite a bit of damage around Tom Taylor and Charlie Patterson too. Some cars involved.

Is that the area of that High School? Spotter reporting a farmhouse and barn completely destroyed in the area of Buckhorn High School I think it is, with damage to the south side of the school.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1132 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

VAC167-191-021700-

/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120302T1700Z/

RUSSELL VA-WASHINGTON VA-

1132 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FOR WASHINGTON

AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 1127 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BENHAMS...OR 8

MILES NORTH OF BRISTOL VA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

ABINGDON...HANSONVILLE...HILANDER PARK...HOLSTON...LINDELL...

EMORY-MEADOW VIEW...GLADE SPRING AND KONNAROCK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1030 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TN ACROSS MUCH OF

KY...SRN INDIANA AND SWRN OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL MS AND AL...NRN GA

NWD INTO IL...IND...OH...WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY

EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS

NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE MS...TN AND OH

VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. STRONG WIND SHEAR WITH THIS TROUGH WILL

OVERSPREAD A LARGE AND EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE

WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM S CNTRL IL NEWD ACROSS INDIANA AND

EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER MI TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL

SWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A WARM FRONT

LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR

WILL EXIST E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL RAPIDLY REPLACE COOL SURFACE

AIR NOW OVER PORTIONS OF IND...KY AND OH.

*** OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TODAY

OVER A LARGE AREA ***

...SRN IL...IND...OH...KY...NRN TN...

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER IL AND SERN MO NEAR THE LOW

AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT HAS

RAPIDLY LIFTED NWD OVER THIS AREA...REPLACING COOL AIR WITH WARM AND

UNSTABLE AIR. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR EWD INTO OH LATER TODAY.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND

DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR THE LOW TRACK...AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTICITY

CENTER AND NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL

REMAIN STRONG...AS WILL FORCING. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN MO/IL

SHOULD THRIVE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS A WIDE AND DESTABILIZING WARM

SECTOR. THIS SHOULD FAVOR LONG LIVED AND FAST MOVING TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO

WANE LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE MDT RISK AREA AS

LOW LEVELS COOL.

...ERN TN...MS/AL/GA...

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NRN AL MOVING INTO

ERN TN AND PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NWRN GA. THESE CELLS FORMED IN AN

AREA OF WARM ADVECTION...AND THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY

UNCAPPED. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORMS SHOULD BE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON...ALONG AND EVEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LA INTO MS

AND AGAIN AL AND TN. DEEP LIFT WILL EASILY SUSTAIN STORMS IN A VERY

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 03/02/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (11:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The rapid deepening of the low is probably a more significant factor than many other variables under consideration.

I agree completely! The geostrophic surface wind is out of the southwest and almost completely parallel with the 850 mb winds. The massive 0-1 km helicity and southeast surface wind's we're seeing today is almost entirely due to isallobaric winds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up here in Goodlettsville. just north of Nashville, with a panoramic view to the north and west from my office. Overcast skies gave way around 9:30 to partly cloudy, now cloud heights seem to be rising. And they are moving fast-- seems like winds have shifted from SW to more southerly? Sun shining through. Got that classic creepy look that makes folks in this part of the country very uneasy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...