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Severe Potential March 2nd/3rd: OV, TN Valley, Mid-South, Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas


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The overcast deck is breaking and quite a bit of sunshine is starting to filter in now across the Nashville area.

same up here in Evansville, as of 8:45am temp was 62 and dew point was 59 .......amazing since i woke up that 5:30 and the dew point was 33.

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TNE, just had to point out, 850 mb vorticity is not convective energy. The yellow and orange areas are maxima of positive vorticity at the 850 mb level of the atmosphere. Vorticity refers to rotation and positive vorticity is counterclockwise rotation. That's why the most notable 850 mb vort max is in the 850 mb low center northeast of Lake Huron in the images you posted. Vorticity maxima at the lower and mid levels can obviously aid in forcing upward motion, but it is not convective energy, or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), which refers to the amount of instability present in the atmosphere. You most certainly do not need instability to have vorticity.

Thanks but it is my fault for not explaining what i mean by convective energy. Why would I use the 850 vorticity map to show 'convective energy"? Convective energy in the way I am using it refers to the area most likely to see storm development and instability. The area I decided to use is in the warm sector and along the cold front, which is depicted on the 850 vorticity maps I posted. The first reference is to the "convective energy" moving from AL to Cape Hatteras, and the other reference (shown using the 12z NAM) is of the "convective energy" moving from AL to NJ. Both of these references based on the 850 vorticity map is occurring along the cold front and in the warm sector. I used the 850 vorticity because it helps depict the area where storm development is likely to occur given a sufficient warm sector (or potential instability) and a sufficient cold front (lift)...thus I termed the 850mb vorticity as "convective energy."

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First "catch" of the day is here... here we go

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH

MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

CAPSHAW.

HARVEST.

MERIDIANVILLE.

HAZEL GREEN.

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TOR watch box just issued for E TN and far N. AL & GA including the currently warned cell.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 56

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

930 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TORNADO WATCH 56 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC001-003-007-011-013-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-065-087-

103-105-107-115-121-127-129-133-137-141-143-145-151-153-159-175-

177-185-022100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0056.120302T1530Z-120302T2100Z/

TN

. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE

BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON

CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND

DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN

GRUNDY HAMILTON JACKSON

LINCOLN LOUDON MARION

MCMINN MEIGS MOORE

MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT

PUTNAM RHEA ROANE

SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH

VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE

$$

AL

. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEKALB JACKSON LAWRENCE

LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL

MORGAN

GA

. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE

WALKER WHITFIELD

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Homes already damaged with that TOG.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR NORTHERN

MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 925 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARVEST...OR ABOUT 9

MILES NORTH OF MADISON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 925 AM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF LIMESTONE COUNTY REPORTED

TORNADO DAMAGE TO HOUSES BETWEEN ATHENS AND EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

HIGH SCHOOL.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA

WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600

PM CST.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE

GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS

NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500

J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600

M2/S2. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN

MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE

OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

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large tornado on the ground moving into Jackson County. This will pass extremely close to Hytop site.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

1002 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC071-089-TNC051-103-021615-

/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120302T1615Z/

JACKSON AL-MADISON AL-FRANKLIN TN-LINCOLN TN-

1002 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CST FOR

SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN MADISON

AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 1002 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEVNA...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOORES

MILL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

LARKIN...FRANCISCO...HUNTLAND...BEANS CREEK...ESTILLFORK...MAXWELL

AND HYTOP.

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MEG:

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HELPED TO MIX OUT

SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE

TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS

APPROACHING 50 MPH...AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE OVER CENTRAL

ARKANSAS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING...THE CAP

CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL EASE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION

JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY A ROW OR TWO COUNTIES EAST

OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS IS STILL HIGHLY

UNCERTAIN. QUITE FRANKLY...IT MAY BE ONE OR TWO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS

OR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. WHILE STILL ELEVATED...STORMS HAVE BEGUN

TO FIRE TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

WITH TOWERING CU NOW EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

WINDS HAVE VEERED SOUTHWEST AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE VEERING

THROUGH THE DAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS EXIST...DESPITE THE

UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG

INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ALSO SHOW RATHER HIGH

LCL/S GIVEN THE MIXING AND RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES. THUS...STILL

THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE

JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THEY STILL ARE

NOT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE MAIN

THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL DUE

TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN VERY DRY AIR WITH THE MID LEVEL

DRY SLOT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...THUS IT IS

IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE

DAY.

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AT 1005 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MERIDIANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS

IS A TORNADO EMGERGENCY FOR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY AND THE

MERIDIANVILLE AREA. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

1010 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1010 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR FRANCISCO...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A

HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF IN THE

PATH OF THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

JERICHO.

COWAN.

SHERWOOD.

ST. ANDREWS.

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