beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Following up this thread: http://www.americanw...her-discussion/ Right now, a large trough is progged to move into the central plains on Friday, with deep moisture return all the way up to the Ohio Valley, creating the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Friday is March 2nd... I'd probably change the title to March 2nd/3rd considering this will probably last at least into the morning hours of Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 For Friday at 6 am CST, 00z NAM seems to favor both a strong and more progressive solution (compared to, say, the 18z GFS op) at the end of its run, with a 996 mb low pressure system where OK/AR/MO/KS almost meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z GFS op seems to be a good bit weaker and more progressive than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z GFS op seems to be a good bit weaker and more progressive than the 18z. The northward extent of this is in question depending how the system evolves but in my opinion, almost any evolution would carry a risk of some severe roughly OH River/southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 00z GFS op seems to be a good bit weaker and more progressive than the 18z. It's actually not much weaker at all, comparing the two, and is well stronger than 12z. For one, look at these LI's... The upper jet it digs into the west coast is also much stronger this run, which makes the eventual outcome with the mid/upper trough's profile a bit questionable. Also, my concern is steadily increasing across the Carolinas, Virginia and GA for Saturday morning/afternoon, with 60s dews and sfc pressure falls 1008 or lower across the area and this type of LLJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Edit: I'd add the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas to the title considering what I'm seeing on the 00z GFS for the time period I just mentioned... Hodo near Richmond, VA at 108: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thanks, as always, andyhb. Now let's see what the Euro and the ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro...scary...again...it also goes nuts over the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic the next day. Another massive warm sector: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Who used the word monster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You two are going back and forth with using "scary" and "nuts" and posting hodigraphs of Richmond where there is 0 CAPE at 7 am pretty much conveys the message to me you are insinuating this is going to be a svr wx outbreak. If you want me to I can post some wicked hodigraphs/LI's and CAPE images from east Texas for 0z Wed...doesn't mean there are going to be any storms there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You two are going back and forth with using "scary" and "nuts" and posting hodigraphs of Richmond where there is 0 CAPE at 7 am pretty much conveys the message to me you are insinuating this is going to be a svr wx outbreak I didn't just look at the hodographs for that, otherwise I wouldn't have posted it... If you want me to I can post some wicked hodigraphs/LI's and CAPE images from east Texas for 0z Wed...doesn't mean there are going to be any storms there. I'm not even gonna try to retort to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I didn't just look at the hodographs for that, otherwise I wouldn't have posted it... Exactly my point! You posted a hodigraph with some shear w/o even looking to see if there is any energy or lift in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Exactly my point! You posted a hodigraph with some shear w/o even looking to see if there is any energy or lift in the vicinity. No, I did look...what are you trying to do here? There's 60s dews over the area and 65+ just off the coast/on the coast. If you get those coming inland, and given the strength of the SLP that wouldn't surprise me, you'll have energy/lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No, I did look...what are you trying to do here? The CAPE is like 7 J/Kg and the CIN is 138 J/Kg for Richmond...just saying if there are storms there...at this point in the game it's not going to be anything spectacularly severe. Any why are we talking about this at 100+ hrs? It's like you two are making a mountain out of a mole hill hyping this thing up. Everything graphic you have posted proves the opposite of what you are trying to convey that it's going to be a "danger" situation unfolding. The 0z run of the GFS is worse than the 12z. It stacked the system. Not trying to be a jerk. Just that your dialog between the two of you conveys the situation is becoming graver. When in fact it's going the opposite direction. As Baro said in the other thread, there is potential but it's not there yet. This last run just took a crap And the fact why are we microanalysis a svr wx potential 90+ hrs out is a mystery to me. PS where are you going to get the lift from when the cold front is forecasted to be 150 miles west and where is all that energy going to come from when it's pretty much dark and 7 am? C'mon. You're not going to pull any energy out of that skew T profile. The fact that you're even arguing these facts at 100+ hrs is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The CAPE is like 7 J/Kg and the CIN is 138 J/Kg for Richmond...just saying if there are storms there...at this point in the game it's not going to be anything spectacularly severe. Any why are we talking about this at 100+ hrs? It's like you two are making a mountain out of a mole hill hyping this thing up. Everything graphic you have posted proves the opposite of what you are trying to convey that it's going to be a "danger" situation unfolding. The 0z run of the GFS is worse than the 12z. It stacked the system. Not trying to be a jerk. Just that your dialog between the two of you conveys the situation is becoming graver. When in fact it's going the opposite direction. As Baro said in the other thread, there is potential but it's not there yet. This last run just took a crap And the fact why are we microanalysis a svr wx potential 90+ hrs out is a mystery to me. I'm in the position to disagree with posts like this... If you want me to I can post some wicked hodigraphs/LI's and CAPE images from east Texas for 0z Wed...doesn't mean there are going to be any storms there. And the last run did not take a crap, at least not for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You two are going back and forth with using "scary" and "nuts" and posting hodigraphs of Richmond where there is 0 CAPE at 7 am pretty much conveys the message to me you are insinuating this is going to be a svr wx outbreak. If you want me to I can post some wicked hodigraphs/LI's and CAPE images from east Texas for 0z Wed...doesn't mean there are going to be any storms there. Exactly my point! You posted a hodigraph with some shear w/o even looking to see if there is any energy or lift in the vicinity. hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 hodograph. Thanks Not in my spell check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Oy vey, but I guess I'm that second person being talked about. Maybe I should bow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 PS where are you going to get the lift from when the cold front is forecasted to be 150 miles west and where is all that energy going to come from when it's pretty much dark and 7 am? C'mon. You're not going to pull any energy out of that skew T profile. The fact that you're even arguing these facts at 100+ hrs is ridiculous. Look at the Euro. You should know that the GFS is notorious for underdoing instability/moisture values. You don't need the front to be right on top of you to have lift... Time of day doesn't matter either...like seriously... But, I'm gonna stop now, because I have had enough of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Definitely doesn't look better for Friday on the 0z than the 12z. It shifted the forcing east of the best CAPE and vertically stacked the system. The wind profiles are pretty much unidirectional every where on the 0z. What more do you want? Time of day doesn't matter??? If you want a decent storm when you don't have much shear. You're missing a different key ingredient in each of your arguments. Euro's pretty much the same unidirectional profile too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Definitely doesn't look better for Friday on the 0z than the 12z. It shifted the forcing east of the best CAPE and vertically stacked the system. The wind profiles are pretty much unidirectional every where on the 0z. What more do you want? Time of day doesn't matter??? If you want a decent storm when you don't have much shear. You're missing a different key ingredient in each of your arguments. Euro's pretty much the same unidirectional profile too. This is true. I did notice looking at the different levels that though there was strong speed shear, the directional shear was weak or even non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Moderately high potential if the synoptic pattern worked out ideally, not necessarily a high probability. Over-hyping any event is not what we strive for in meteorology. Please keep the discussion to meteorology from here on out. As for April 27th, please no comparisons to that. Not even remotely close in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Look at the Euro. You should know that the GFS is notorious for underdoing instability/moisture values. You don't need the front to be right on top of you to have lift... Time of day doesn't matter either...like seriously... But, I'm gonna stop now, because I have had enough of this. My point proven...you're grasping at straws here. You are rationalizing why there will be svr storms when the environment current being forecasted doesn't favor that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is WSW at H5, SW at H7, SSW at H85 and S at the surface at 93 hrs across much of the warm sector...unless I'm blind or something in which case I rest my case. In early season svr threats, I tend to look at the setups that have adequate thermodynamics and then move on from there, and this one certainly appears to have that, so I apologize if I came across too strongly in my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is WSW at H5, SW at H7, SSW at H85 and S at the the surface at 93 hrs across much of the warm sector...unless I'm blind or something in which case I rest my case. I do remember seeing that too, and if I recall correctly, east of the plains that is sufficient directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is WSW at H5, SW at H7, SSW at H85 and S at the the surface at 93 hrs across much of the warm sector...unless I'm blind or something in which case I rest my case. In early season svr threats, I tend to look at the setups that have adequate thermodynamics and then move on from there, and this one certainly appears to have that, so I apologize if I came across too strongly in my concern. Where is that profile located I am going to guess the lift is forecasted to be east of that profile...Secondly, you can have all the thermodynamics you want but you need lift over them. East Texas tomorrow is a perfect example of what you're trying to imply for Friday. I saw you imply the same thing for AR a few days back in another thread and the results are the same as I expect for this Friday where the best dynamics are to the west of the lift...if the solution from the 0z models were to verify. I agree with you lots of great ingredients thermodynamically there but they are not coming together with the dynamics...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Where is that profile located...Secondly, you can have all the thermodynamics you want but you need lift over them. East Texas tomorrow is a perfect example of what you're trying to imply for Friday. I saw you imply the same thing for AR a few days back in another thread and the results are the same as I expect for this Friday...if the solution from the 0z models were to verify. I agree with you lots of great ingredients thermodynamically there but they are not coming together...yet. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ...and my concern is definitely elevated concerning the Tuesday/Wednesday threat across the Ozarks and Mid South looking at the 12z Euro. 850 temps are above 10 degrees C across virtually the entire area. Same comments about warm sector and 850 temps....slight risk for tomorrow while best dynamics are behind in east TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Same comments about warm sector and 850 temps....slight risk for tomorrow while best dynamics are behind in east TX That was before the shift westward, at the time there was a 30% probability over this area and the most favorable dynamics for sfc based convection were progged to be somewhere in the Ozarks/Mid South. I was using the 850 temps to give an outline over the size of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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