wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Does the EURO handle convective elements very well? It doesn't, does it? Probably not, which is a good explanation. As a result, it tends to be very broad brushed, and I know it's been that way with most storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Snow hounds seem to be booking up hotels in northern MI fast, so had to make a decision. Staying at a little lodge in Grayling, only a 3.5 hour drive from home, nestled in woods...rather than staying at some chain hotel in an urban part of town, JUST in case of becoming briefly snowbound, I want to be able to walk into snow-plastered nature easily from where Im staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 My thoughts on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 My thoughts on this storm. I think you are shortchanging much of Southern Wisconsin. You must really be buying into the long range RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 WRF-ARW NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think you are shortchanging much of Southern Wisconsin. You must really be buying into the long range RUC. I suppose you're right, taking a second look at the models, but I would be worried about possible mixing issues in that area. So I'll stay conservative for now in that area. I'll post an update after the 12z GFS posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 few images before I crash, snowfall rate probs off the 21z SREF and the cranking band off the 6z NAM for 3z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think you are shortchanging much of Southern Wisconsin. You must really be buying into the long range RUC. Looks good man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 will mke ever get their short term out so i can jet out of here to get one last am of ice fishing in before things are shot down in far se wi.. not much turtle excitement in here for this. I like madison for the sweet spot and up to the NE. thinking 2-4" here hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 will mke ever get their short term out so i can jet out of here to get one last am of ice fishing in before things are shot down in far se wi.. not much turtle excitement in here for this. I like madison for the sweet spot and up to the NE. thinking 2-4" here hopefully Sounds reasonable. Considering what happened last week i could see this thing ending up a little further nw like that did. That is the way i would go if i had to make a call on any last minute surprises. Euro sucking donkey balls again. Good luck dude. I think you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thanks much, Harry. Def worried about a little shift nw and just a little means pretty much when it comes to change over times here. finally can get out of here now that short term is out.. pretty much knew what it was going to say but I had to weenie out to the afd before leaving. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 539 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 UPDATED TO ADD VERY SHORT TERM...MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS. SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. OTHER MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH WHAT NAM HAD BEEN SHOWING AS AN OUTLIER THAT PAST FEW DAYS...WITH STRENGTHENING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AS UPPER JET INTENSIFIES AND RESULTING RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW. STRONG HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STILL LOOKS THAT EVENING RUSH WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED WITH A QUICK TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. COBB SUPPORTING 1.5 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS STRONG LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE PRODUCE DOUBLE DIGIT OMEGA VALUES INTERSECTING THE PRIME DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. WHILE THE WARNING AREA WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS... MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE THE KETTLE MORAINE REGIONS OF FOND DU LAC/SHEBOYGAN/DODGE/AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS JUMP THE MOST WITH DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE ADDITIVE OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION WHICH COULD RAISE AMOUNTS ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST. THUNDER-SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A PERIOD OF 7C TO 8C LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800 MB AND WETZEL INGREDIENTS PLOTS BRINGING HIGHER VALUES OF NET QPV INTO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AN ADDITIONAL HEADACHE WILL BE NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. NOT MUCH DRIFTING EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVY, WET SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED IN THE EXPECTED HEAVY SNOW BURSTS. SNOW SHUTS DOWN QUICKLY IN THE LATE EVENING WEST AND EARLY OVERNIGHT EAST WITH LOSS OF LIFT...DRYING IN DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SNOW LINGERS IN THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I remember almost the exact storm in March 1998 and almost an identical crappy winter for SEMI. As a youngster coming back from Florida for spring break unsuccessfully getting tail. Similar track that caught Chicago to Traverse City in a very heavy wet snow. Anyone remember this storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Snow hounds seem to be booking up hotels in northern MI fast, so had to make a decision. Staying at a little lodge in Grayling, only a 3.5 hour drive from home, nestled in woods...rather than staying at some chain hotel in an urban part of town, JUST in case of becoming briefly snowbound, I want to be able to walk into snow-plastered nature easily from where Im staying. I hope you get it there. I would really like for you to see a "real snowstorm" I feel your to far south. Think the Heaviest Snows will stay around M-68 (Traverse to Cheboygan) My call: 10 to 18 inches. but the good news I still think Grayling gets at least 7 to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 eventual trowal/defo band as well as dryslot locations are already pretty evident. Anything in the NW camp is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Cedar Rapids up through the usual snow magnet (Dubuque) look pretty good for 3+ inches. Based on everything I'm seeing early this morning I'm still riding my 1-2" call for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Cedar Rapids up through the usual snow magnet (Dubuque) look pretty good for 3+ inches. Based on everything I'm seeing early this morning I'm still riding my 1-2" call for the QCA. Agree on all accounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Is it just me or does the NW part Chicago area under the gun for 6"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Is it just me or does the NW part Chicago area under the gun for 6"+? the far NW portion of the LOT area is under a watch and some of the models show those kind of amounts. that said, radar/sat trends would suggest otherwise and a mostly dryslot scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 the far NW portion of the LOT area is under a watch and some of the models show those kind of amounts. that said, radar/sat trends would suggest otherwise and a mostly dryslot scenario Just seen the RUC. Really taking this thing further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 eventual trowal/defo band as well as dryslot locations are already pretty evident. Anything in the NW camp is looking good. I am wondering if we will be in better shape trailering up to the Cadillac/Gaylord region, rather than having to fight traffic and possible 2" hour rates driving up from south side Chicago with a 3:00 p.m. departure all the way to Crivitz, WI. That might get us into the sweet spot with what fell earlier this week and what looks to fall tonight. As it stands now Crivitz seems to be well northwest of tonight's main band, and we will merely be driving/fighting through it. On the other hand if this NW trend happens, Crivitz region might get nailed . . . will be following trends closely today. Thanks for the thoughts all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Just seen the RUC. Really taking this thing further NW. It fits nicely with radar trends, area in SE WI, especially south of MKE are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 the far NW portion of the LOT area is under a watch and some of the models show those kind of amounts. that said, radar/sat trends would suggest otherwise and a mostly dryslot scenario Yup... not looking good here from what i'm seeing. wagons west/north and warnings gonna go up for Green Bay. So much for ice fishing.. got a call that the ice is very sketchy on the racine county lake we planned on going to. so much for fishing there.. this day is going down the ****ter fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I am wondering if we will be in better shape trailering up to the Cadillac/Gaylord region, rather than having to fight traffic and possible 2" hour rates driving up from south side Chicago with a 3:00 p.m. departure all the way to Crivitz, WI. That might get us into the sweet spot with what fell earlier this week and what looks to fall tonight. As it stands now Crivitz seems to be well northwest of tonight's main band, and we will merely be driving/fighting through it. On the other hand if this NW trend happens, Crivitz region might get nailed . . . will be following trends closely today. Thanks for the thoughts all. Sucks having to drive in snow.. but I think everybody with a sled is going to be gonig nuts in that area of mi.. I would hit ne wi where if you know the area well you will find awesome trails with a lot less traffic I would think plus they look like they could add on a nice chunk of snow. I expect the nam follows suit of the 6Z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Just seen the RUC. Really taking this thing further NW. ARGH! I need to move to the Northwestern UP.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 . I expect the nam follows suit of the 6Z gfs. no sense following it too much now, but an early look says not so fast on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Sucks having to drive in snow.. but I think everybody with a sled is going to be gonig nuts in that area of mi.. I would hit ne wi where if you know the area well you will find awesome trails with a lot less traffic I would think plus they look like they could add on a nice chunk of snow. I expect the nam follows suit of the 6Z gfs. Thanks for the context Bow. Will be posting reports as relevant along the way. 43 up north of MKE could be a wild ride . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Guess GB already expanded headlnes north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 no sense following it too much now, but an early look says not so fast on that. seems the gfs has a better handle on the precip down south by st louis area so i figured nam would follow suit and bump north.. just talking out my pooper so my thoughts pretty much just stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thanks for the context Bow. Will be posting reports as relevant along the way. 43 up north of MKE could be a wild ride . . . snow should be wet and roads warm enough that crews should be effective at keeping major roads clear....unless rates get really out of hand, which i guess is possible north and west of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 nam pretty much holds but that doesn't comfort me a whole lot. A foot+ of fresh snow in MI sounds like heaven but until the groomers can get out and work it along with all the traffic I would be real affraid of moguls and tough going in the heavy wet snow. def going to be a hairy ride up 43 not to mention the nightmare traffic you're going to hit. hopefully the snow holds off and you can make some good time out of chicago to mke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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