Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 QPF is high with the GFS too. -48hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wife. The NAM is bound to screw you over at the 0Z run. The wife screw job is much better. The NAM!!! It's my wife's "time of the month", so part two will not be happening...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Buried :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wish this system took shape quicker than what's being modeled. May still get an inch or two of slop here though before it bolts northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Saukville: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Saukville: LOL. Yeah looks good for southeast Wisconsin, and as Baro mentioned portions of Michigan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wish this system took shape quicker than what's being modeled. May still get an inch or two of slop here though before it bolts northeast. Don't count it out being a bit slower. Keep in mind it was just a couple days ago this was not modeled to explode until it got in the UP. Heck the GFS didn't have it doing anything a couple days ago. 24 hours out is a long time away with at least 4 models run of changes coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18z NAM text extraction is 8.8" for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Don't count it out being a bit slower. Keep in mind it was just a couple days ago this was not modeled to explode until it got in the UP. Heck the GFS didn't have it doing anything a couple days ago. 24 hours out is a long time away with at least 4 models run of changes coming. Good point. If the 18z NAM came to fruition it would end up being a pretty impressive snowstorm in this area. Tonight's runs are gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18z NAM text extraction is 8.8" for ORD the cobb raw data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 If this thing strengthens just a tad earlier and slows down to boot, it could make all the difference in terms of snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 the cobb raw data? i just did the quick extract off wxcaster found here http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Definitely a palm crusher... probably have to replant after this one... concrete mixer over Saukville: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 March 2012: Wisconsin Palmocalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I am so freakin pumped about this storm. Im going to be staying between Gaylord and Grayling. Its only a 4 hour drive if that, and they have 18-24" on the ground currently with a major storm on the way tomorrow night. Will be my best snowstorm experienced since at least Feb 20, 2011....and latest model qpfs are well over 1" and it will probably be a scenic wet snow too. I will be outside all day Sat and Sun soaking up a winter wonderland. Will be pretty amazing that Gaylord may have 30"+ ON THE GROUND while places just to their west at similar latitudes, like Green Bay and Minneapolis, have had LESS than 24" TOTAL SNOWFALL on the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I am so freakin pumped about this storm. Im going to be staying between Gaylord and Grayling. Its only a 4 hour drive if that, and they have 18-24" on the ground currently with a major storm on the way tomorrow night. Will be my best snowstorm experienced since at least Feb 20, 2011....and latest model qpfs are well over 1" and it will probably be a scenic wet snow too. I will be outside all day Sat and Sun soaking up a winter wonderland. Will be pretty amazing that Gaylord may have 30"+ ON THE GROUND while places just to their west at similar latitudes, like Green Bay and Minneapolis, have had LESS than 24" TOTAL SNOWFALL on the season! BTW: I think you should go between Gaylord and Indian River. Grayling might have some mixing issues. Take some photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 BTW: I think you should go between Gaylord and Indian River. Grayling might have some mixing issues. Take some photos Thats something to think about. And you know I will be taking pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 here is my map for midwest weather talk, thundersnow could beef up totals in some areas! more at: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 good map, little light in MI but good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thats something to think about. And you know I will be taking pics! There is a great place in Indian River to stay called Northwood Lodge. I haven't been there in several years now but it was remodeled in the mid-90s. I used to go there every year in the 90s-2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Saukville: Ugh. Those are washingtonia robustas -- not really that cold hardy. I grow trachycarpus fortunei which are much more hardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Sfc low track identical through 12hr on the 0z NAM but WAA is a bit stronger out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Sfc low track identical through 12hr on the 0z NAM but WAA is a bit stronger out ahead of it. much more realistic IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 p large differences with the 500 mb vort by 15 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 less cold sector QPF at 18hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The bullseye area may have no low-level radar since MKX is down. Major bummer. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=79383&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 A little less QPF but still not bad at all Still will end up with ~1" QPF up here this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 984mb near Lansing, MI. Same as the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 New NAM would be good for a 2-4" hit for here and the QC. Precip really explodes after 15z, just as colder air is establishing itself. QPF of around 0.50", but low ratios, warm ground, and probably some early rain mixing in should keep things from getting out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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