Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Was just thinking, to the north of this storm track there is snow cover and colder air. Storm last week did not have that to work with, but this one does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Will lake enhancement be a factor on the cold side of the storm? Typically, with the track that is being indicated, it would, and with such a deep system, winds will be a factor. delta T's look like crap and favorable trajectory is fleeting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Was just thinking, to the north of this storm track there is snow cover and colder air. Storm last week did not have that to work with, but this one does... won't matter, we're not talking about an entrenched cold airmass sitting over snow, this will snow over someone because the low will rapidly deepen and crash 850s enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Alek pwning the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Alek pwning the weenies Yeah, I just asked about lake enhancement; nothing weenieish about asking. I figure without lake enhancement this will be a good, but not great storm. Still have to enjoy March winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This one has the ability to surprise a few folks, if it does produce how some models say it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This one has the ability to surprise a few folks, if it does produce how some models say it could. yep, a strong spring low will have no problem laying a stripe of cement. Extreme NW Illinois NE to Northern Lower MI looks good with amounts increasing as you head northeast along that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 12z Euro stronger with more cold sector QPF across southern WI/northern IL. Sfc low at 992mb in sw MI at 36hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 12z Euro stronger with more cold sector QPF across southern WI/northern IL. Sfc low at 992mb in sw MI at 36hr. looking good for Geos north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Last couple storms had a definite NW trend within the last 24 hours or so of being modeled. I would not be surprised if it happens here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Very pleased with the latest developments. Hope it comes close to verifying. Over 4" will be the biggest storm of the year. And yes, have to admit, the way this is coming together so quickly, I was also wondering if we might just end up with a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Very pleased with the latest developments. Hope it comes close to verifying. Over 4" will be the biggest storm of the year. And yes, have to admit, the way this is coming together so quickly, I was also wondering if we might just end up with a NW trend. wow, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 eastern iowa crew will like the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 eastern iowa crew will like the 18z nam not as much as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Holy moly This the stuff you dream of as a weenie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 not as much as you will. all rain IMBY until the very end, decent out towards Geos and RFD EDIT: looks like .25 or so of wintery stuff IMBY, but i'll have to check the soundings later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Holy moly This the stuff you dream of as a weenie.. Holy cow. This storm is really surprising me! What is that, 984mb over Lansing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Holy cow. This storm is really surprising me! What is that, 984mb over Lansing? soundings will be interesting up your way and just west, it's definitely still a 95% rain event for Chicago but the potential remains for a thin stripe of heavy snow not too far north given the rapid strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS shows a little bit of snow just before sunrise too with a weak little wave, 0.5-1". It's already taking shape in western IA. Perhaps if that actually does lay down some snow it'll keep surface temps down for the main event 6 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I lived in Lancaster, PA. I have lived in Muskegon for three years. In those three years, we've had the hottest summer on record and the second warmest winter on record. lol Definitely picked the wrong time to move here.... Don't look now but that 18Z NAM is a PORN run for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Don't look now but that 18Z NAM is a PORN run for you! lol! For sure! On top of that, just as I was looking at the maps, my wife is sitting here in bed poking me for "not paying attention to her"!!! Uh oh...do I pay attention to the NAM or my wife.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 thicknesses crash ridiculously hard between 27-33 hrs over NE Illinois and extreme SE WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 H7 low stronger and goes right over chi metro, comparing to 12z NAM for same timeframe. also switch to all snow between 21-0z on this run looking at soundings, low level winds also pick up after this time (925mb winds pushing 50kts) cranking at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 lol! For sure! On top of that, just as I was looking at the maps, my wife is sitting here in bed poking me for "not paying attention to her"!!! Uh oh...do I pay attention to the NAM or my wife.......... Wife. The NAM is bound to screw you over at the 0Z run. The wife screw job is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wife. The NAM is bound to screw you over at the 0Z run. The wife screw job is much better. i really think the low is going to go far enough west that even areas like muskegon/cadillac/alpena don't get much in the way of snow. Seems like everytime in the past several years when the models start a last jog NW they don't go far enough and we end up with a storm 50-100 miles left of the forecasted track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 317 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BRIEF RIDGING THIS EVENING THEN UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND AN INITIAL WAVE HEADS TOWARDS CWA. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH MAIN SURFACE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE VICINITY SRN MO LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE KICKS IN AFTER 6Z. AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN A TENTH...LOOKS MIXY. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN WI INCREASING. FAVORABLE TRACK OF KEY UPPER AIR PARAMETERS AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION OF LOW ARE MAIN WORRISOME ISSUES. CONCERN IS INCREASING THAT OUR CURRENT AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ARE UNDERDONE BUT THERMAL PROFILE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WILL KEY EVENTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS THERE. 984-987 MILLIBAR LOW IN SW LOWER MI BY 00Z SATURDAY. SWEET TRACK FOR SRN WI SNOWSTORM. AGAIN MUCH CONCERN ABOUT THERMAL PROFILE IN THE SOUTHEAST. 12Z GFS BUFKIT MKE AND 12Z ECMWF SOUNDING SUGGESTS A QUICKER CHANGEOVER...AND THE PROFILE APPEARS TO BETTER REFLECT THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS THAN DOES THE MOS TEMP TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WITH RAPID DEEPENING AND POTENTIAL FOR COLLAPSING PROFILE THAT OFTEN GOES WITH THESE TYPE OF DEEPENING SYSTEMS. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH TRACKING 700 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW RIGHT ACROSS SRN WI WITH 850 MILLIBAR LOW TRACKING RIGHT NEAR CHICAGO AND INTENSIFYING INTO SW LOWER MI...VERY IMPRESSIVE TRACKS. DECENT 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. TOOK AN AVERAGE OF QPF AMOUNTS...BUT CERTAINLY NOT RULING OUT HIGHER NUMBERS GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM. THE CRITICAL WINDOW WILL BE 18-00Z AS THIS IS THE TIME THE LOW RAMPS UP AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENS. PLACED THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM JANESVILLE UP TO SHEBOYGAN FOR NOW CONSIDERING SOME OF THE LIQUID WILL FALL AS RAIN TO THE EAST...BUT EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMING IN AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND MKE AND POINTS SOUTH TO THE BORDER...SO FOR NOW ANYWAYS...HAVE SKEWED SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER THERE. BUT CONCERN IS HIGH THAT THESE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD BE TOO LOW IF THE COLD AIR WRAPS IN QUICKER EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS WETZEL INGREDIENT PLOTS SUGGEST SOME OVERLAP OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH PVU AND RESULTING IN HIGH VALUES OF QPV. AT THIS TIME THE SIGNAL IS AT HIGHER LEVELS...AOA 600 MILLIBARS. WON/T MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LOT **REGARDING ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FRI AFTERNOON-EARLY EVE** AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE DYNAMIC SPRING SEASON SYSTEMS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO A SUB 990 MB LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. A TROWAL LIKE STRUCTURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WI WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT WILL BE THIS AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THIS TROWAL FEATURE. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF MY CWA INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. OVERALL...THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EVEN EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOW AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDES WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUFFER SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS EVEN SUGGEST THE SOME ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. I AM CONCERNED THAT WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITHIN A FEW HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT IS QUIET POSSIBLE IF THESE INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN EVENT IN LATER MODEL RUNS THAT AN ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. I DO NOT HAVE ANY PLANS FOR HEADLINES AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT CHANGE OVER TIME...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE LARGE CONSEQUENCES ON THE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW THAT FALL. HOWEVER...I WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH AN SPS THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 i really think the low is going to go far enough west that even areas like muskegon/cadillac/alpena don't get much in the way of snow. Seems like everytime in the past several years when the models start a last jog NW they don't go far enough and we end up with a storm 50-100 miles left of the forecasted track. I would love a solid NW trend personally as it would mean a decent chance of t-storms into my area. Yeah rapid developing systems like this do seem to have that NW trend (as we have seen in the past couple storms). Winds in our area could be quite impressive on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 And the 18Z GFS almost just as impressive as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 If the 18z GFS/RGEM/NAM verified would be a possible blizzard across certain portions of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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