wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 dryslot will be a bigger concern for you, although i'm not sure what side of MKE you are on, obviously W and N are better. Right now I'm right near downtown, live just west of the city. The low, if anything, at 992, is a tad deeper than the NAM and GFS are progging (esp the NAM, with 992.9 at 18z). Also, as I was saying, the 12z GFS has us nowhere near a dryslot, and the NAM doesn't either. I understand it's nowcast time, but those would be huge busts if we get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Right now I'm right near downtown, live just west of the city. The low, if anything, at 992, is a tad deeper than the NAM and GFS are progging (esp the NAM, with 992.9 at 18z). pretty minor differences, everything looks to be on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Anyone know whereabouts the low is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 looking more like all Chicago is going to see out of this is some drizzle and a dryslot. Can't wait for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Skilling just put up a SREF snow accumulation graphic which put Milwaukee and areas just N/W/SW in 10-12". That would be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...INTENSE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME WARMER AIR WILL LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALLOW ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 4 PM ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL...WITH RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME... WOULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. THIS WILL BE A WET HEAVY SNOW. THE MODEL TRACK OF THIS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WIZ051-052-058>060-030030- /O.CON.KMKX.WS.W.0001.120302T2100Z-120303T0600Z/ FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOND DU LAC...SHEBOYGAN...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON 1017 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A BIT LATER BY THE LAKE SHORE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. * IMPACTS...DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. SOME THUNDER SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHICH COULD LEAD TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 careful using that, its 4mb weaker on the mesoanalysis. Sfc obs are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 looking more like all Chicago is going to see out of this is some drizzle and a dryslot. Can't wait for next week. GFS backing off on that warmth next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 GFS backing off on that warmth next week. A bit OT but the NAM also brings in a couple of Inches Tmrw Night/Sunday with the piece of energy rotating down.. Caplan talked about this briefly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 GFS backing off on that warmth next week. just saw that, it's not cold but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 careful using that, its 4mb weaker on the mesoanalysis. Sfc obs are the way to go. How's this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... .A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND NOON. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST...THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AND A RAIN SNOW MIX BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL RATES ONE INCH PER HOUR. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ILZ010>012-030030- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.120302T2100Z-120303T0300Z/ LEE-DE KALB-KANE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. * MAIN IMPACT...THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. * OTHER IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW... THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING. THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 wasn't expecting this.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... .A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AROUND NOON. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST...THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AND A RAIN SNOW MIX BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL RATES ONE INCH PER HOUR. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ILZ010>012-030030- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.120302T2100Z-120303T0300Z/ LEE-DE KALB-KANE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 looking more like all Chicago is going to see out of this is some drizzle and a dryslot. Can't wait for next week. hmmm. looks to me like we will be solidly in the tail of the deformation band. Maybe I'm projecting radar trends wrong. Note: LOT's recent aviation discussion still hints at the possibility of heavy snow, albeit briefly. These spring scenarios are brutal for planning purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 hmmm. looks to me like we will be solidly in the tail of the deformation band. Maybe I'm projecting radar trends wrong. Note: LOT's recent aviation discussion still hints at the possibility of heavy snow, albeit briefly. These spring scenarios are brutal for planning purposes. LOT is leaning that way...I'm totally not seeing it. Either way best case this is a sloppy inch for me. Good luck with your clients, hope they get burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 unrelated but you dudes should dig this http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-756406?hpt=hp_c2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 unrelated but you dudes should dig this http://ireport.cnn.c...56406?hpt=hp_c2 Nice. My neighbor runs the surfing club here in Sheboygan. Spring and Fall are prime time for them to hit the shores of Lake MI. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 LOT is leaning that way...I'm totally not seeing it. Either way best case this is a sloppy inch for me. Good luck with your clients, hope they get burried. O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0007.120302T2100Z-120303T0600Z/ DUPAGE-COOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...CHICAGO 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS DUPAGE AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS COOK COUNTY. ACROSS NORTHERN COOK COUNTY 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO AN INCH OR TWO IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO...AND UNDER AN INCH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. * MAIN IMPACT...THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. * OTHER IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW... THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING. THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm on the far north side and I doubt i see 1/2". sun poking out now as we flirt with the dryslut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1141 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2012 VALID MAR 02/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY... PRELIM PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...AND THE 12Z NAM/GFS FIT IN WELL WITH THE 00Z/06Z MODEL CONSENSUS. ...STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... ...TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING TROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.... PRELIM PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY BECOMES THE DEEPEST WITH THE CYCLONE...WHILE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE WEAKEST. THE NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 12Z RUN INDICATING A SURFACE LOW A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE 12Z GFS...BUT STRONGER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COMPARED TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THE 00Z CMC...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE 00Z UKMET BOTH LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN REGARDS TO THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THE 12Z NAM/GFS FIT IN WELL WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THE DECENT CLUSTERING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TIMING OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FRONT...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SHOULD BEST ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT FAVORING TOWARDS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW THAN THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 just saw that, it's not cold but meh. But right after the frontal passage its back to pretty warm. One day stays below 35 here for the whole run. That would be unheard of for early march around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 March 2010 redux. 82 on april 1st for a record - avg high then is 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 36° here with a little rain. Snow cranking in Dubuque with 0.25 mile visibility! Nice map above, BowMe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Knew I could get you posting with that nam map lol.. Good luck in waukegan. Hope you get some t-snow. Nap time. pulled almost an allnighter last night.. going on about 6 hrs sleep since wed am. dam snow tracking is more addictive than almost anything for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Huge flakes pouring down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 looks like the hi-res NMM initialized the band a bit too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Continues to snow high end light to moderate with pretty small flakes. Just measured 1.3 inches. 2-3 inches looks good for a total after another few hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 heights really crashing towards the southeast, if you're to the north, you'll be staying all snow from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 heights really crashing towards the southeast, if you're to the north, you'll be staying all snow from here on out. So which way do you think the band in E Iowa will move from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 looks like the hi-res NMM initialized the band a bit too far west. I noticed that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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