hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Precip just started here and it is snow. With the temp at 32 all night the ground is cold enough for the snow to stick. The band of good precip on radar doesn't look to go much nw of CR. I hope it doesn't sag southeast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Precip just started here and it is snow. With the temp at 32 all night the ground is cold enough for the snow to stick. The band of good precip on radar doesn't look to go much nw of CR. I hope it doesn't sag southeast at all. I think you're good to go for a period of heavy snow once the band really organizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Precip just started here and it is snow. With the temp at 32 all night the ground is cold enough for the snow to stick. The band of good precip on radar doesn't look to go much nw of CR. I hope it doesn't sag southeast at all. I'm glad you may get to enjoy some good snow! You've had quite a poor winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 RUC show 850mb winds of 60-70kts right overhead this evening for several hours. The 10m winds are 50-55kts as well. It looks like the only things to prevent this from being a truly siginificant (non-convective) high wind storm is the inversion in place and the time of day. Otherwise, the setup is perfect for several hours of 45-60 MPH wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yup... not looking good here from what i'm seeing. wagons west/north and warnings gonna go up for Green Bay. So much for ice fishing.. got a call that the ice is very sketchy on the racine county lake we planned on going to. so much for fishing there.. this day is going down the ****ter fast. What you have to remember is there will be an easterly component to the movement of the snow band once it organizes better. Many of the NW models had the heaviest band affecting C Iowa, and it looks to be a bit east of there. I don't think the NAM has a bad handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think I am going to end up in no mans land. With the models trending NW, any snow potential is diminishing wheras I am too far north to catch the severe threat. Looks like a rainstorm with maybe a boom here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think I am going to end up in no mans land. With the models trending NW, any snow potential is diminishing wheras I am too far north to catch the severe threat. Looks like a rainstorm with maybe a boom here or there. you're still good for a brief period of snow as the tail end of the trowal rotates through, nothing wild but it could dump for a short period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 will mke ever get their short term out so i can jet out of here to get one last am of ice fishing in before things are shot down in far se wi.. not much turtle excitement in here for this. I like madison for the sweet spot and up to the NE. thinking 2-4" here hopefully I'm excited, just couldn't stay up late tracking this since my students have to defend their projects to me all day. I might miss most of the storm doing that. 6z GFS sure likes us for the sweet spot, almost 1" liquid. HRRR gets us into the main band around 3 pm, though the best stuff is still around MKE. First snow band entering the western part of the county, down to 33 °F so things should start as snow in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What you have to remember is there will be an easterly component to the movement of the snow band once it organizes better. Many of the NW models had the heaviest band affecting C Iowa, and it looks to be a bit east of there. I don't think the NAM has a bad handle on it. I so hope you're right! Usually when the NAM is stubborn like this, it's on to something and often ends up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Snow has picked up here. The flakes are not big, but they are pouring down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 nice f-gen band looks to setup from Ottumwa arcing NE towards Sheboygan...this is my best guess for respectable totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Im going with Indian River,MI as the jackpot for this storm. Final call: 18" Gaylord 15" T.City 12" Petoskey 14" Alpena 11" St.Ignace 10" Grayling 8" Cheyboygan 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Anyone, Heading to NW Mich this evening. Any chance APX upgrades to Bliz Warning sometime overnight? Per Gaylord site: **WEATHER ALERT** Heavy Snow with Near Whiteout Conditions Tonight EDIT: Ignored. NICE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 HRRR totals through 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 nice f-gen band looks to setup from Ottumwa arcing NE towards Sheboygan...this is my best guess for respectable totals I tend to agree. Given the trend for storms to nudge NW ever so slightly, I think this is a good call. HRRR seems to agree. Would be delighted to see 6-8" here in Sheboygan. Convective elements would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I tend to agree. Given the trend for storms to nudge NW ever so slightly, I think this is a good call. HRRR seems to agree. Would be delighted to see 6-8" here in Sheboygan. Convective elements would be icing on the cake. It really isn't a trend NW at this point, this has been the general best guess area for days with minor wobbles a few NAM runs otherwise doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It really isn't a trend NW at this point, this has been the general best guess area for days with minor wobbles a few NAM runs otherwise doesn't mean much. It's been a tad south of Sheboygan (the best guess area) the last day or so (even with the other models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Josh is going to be in about as good as they come if everthing goes as modeled. Good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It really isn't a trend NW at this point, this has been the general best guess area for days with minor wobbles a few NAM runs otherwise doesn't mean much. imo, it's ever so slight. Most of the model data has kept the best qpf numbers about 30 miles south of my area. I don't think the global models are trending NW but the short range models seem to be hinting that the best qpf numbers could shift ever so slightly to the NW. The was also the case with last weeks storm. Either way, things are looking on track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yeah, that band from east of Ottumwa to Iowa City looks pretty heavy. That won't make it this far nw, but there is still some nice expansion of solid returns back through Cedar Rapids. The 12z NAM and GFS both have about 0.4" qpf here so there is a real shot at 3 inches of snow if that pans out. The only disappointment is the flakes are pretty small. I was hoping for another late season large flake storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The GFS definitely seems to indicate that dry area between the rain/snow bands in S Wisconsin/E Iowa and the rain/tstorms south of Chicago will fill in, resulting in over 0.5" QPF in SE Wisconsin. I'll trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Snow flakes (huge at times) all morning here, but nothing is adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Bring it on-hope the HRRR verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The only disappointment is the flakes are pretty small. I was hoping for another late season large flake storm. should improve as thermals improve through the late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Anyone know whereabouts the low is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Iowa City reporting light snow at 36/31 gives me a decent amount of confidence. Won't take long for our temps to get to that point once the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Anyone know whereabouts the low is located? Just east of St Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Anyone know whereabouts the low is located? 992mb just east of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Iowa City reporting light snow at 36/31 gives me a decent amount of confidence. Won't take long for our temps to get to that point once the precip starts. Iowa City was 36 degrees when the heavy band moved in and it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Iowa City reporting light snow at 36/31 gives me a decent amount of confidence. Won't take long for our temps to get to that point once the precip starts. dryslot will be a bigger concern for you, although i'm not sure what side of MKE you are on, obviously W and N are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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