TheWeatherPimp Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 00z NAM continues to develop impressive instability tomorrow afternoon & evening. Will be interested to see if storms can redevelop or if subsidence kills off the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 00z NAM continues to develop impressive instability tomorrow afternoon & evening. Will be interested to see if storms can redevelop or if subsidence kills off the potential. Looks like it has a slightly more pronounced 2nd surface pressure trough late in the day which might provide the lift. Assuming that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ..OH AND TN VALLEYS/MID MS VALLEY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY TODAY AS A 80-95 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SW IND SWWD INTO ECNTRL AR. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMAIN BACK TO THE WEST FROM NEAR THE MS RIVER IN FAR SRN IL SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX. SFC HEATING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM OH SWWD INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1200 TO 1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID 60S F IN THE TN VALLEY. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER A LARGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ALONG A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE MOIST AXIS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 400 TO 500 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS IN THE LINE AND WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN KY SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES COULD ALSO EXIST. THE STRONGER CORES COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. THE GREATEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDER AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPER WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 A little surprised to see the 10% tor. Setup looked mainly unidirectional but I haven't been paying as much attention lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Pretty psyched to see the 5% in my neck of the woods. First chance of the season for severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 We're getting hit pretty nicely here at VU. More than I thought we'd get for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 the red areas are regions in this subforum ACUS11 KWNS 290649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290649 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-EAST CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL AND ERN AR...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN-NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 290649Z - 290745Z NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...WITH INITIAL TORNADO WATCH TO BE COORDINATED SOON WITH WFOS FROM ERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND AND WRN KY. POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE FARTHER S WILL BE MONITORED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN AR TO WRN TN/NWRN MS. ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. THESE THREATS ARE ATTENDANT TO A FAST MOVING /ENE AT 50+ KT/ QLCS WHICH AT 0630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO /LACLEDE COUNTY/ INTO EAST CENTRAL OK /PITTSBURG COUNTY/. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MORE DISCRETE STORMS...WHILE A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO PERSISTED ON THE NRN END MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SRN MO. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS UNDERGOING DESTABILIZATION AS PW VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCH...NOW OVER ERN AR...SPREAD NNEWD CONTRIBUTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. 60-70 KT SWLY 850-700 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ENEWD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Big time couplet in IL with a tornado on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 TOG heading directly at Evansville, IN. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 504 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... EAST CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 530 AM CST. * AT 501 AM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ELDORADO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MOUNT VERNON...RIDGWAY...JUNCTION...OMAHA AND NEW HAVEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Big time couplet in IL with a tornado on the ground. Yeah there was one on the ground there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Another strong couplet heading for Beau in Metropolis, and Paducah, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Another strong couplet heading for Beau in Metropolis, and Paducah, KY. Looks to head right for Metropolis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Major damage in Harrisburg, IL. Apartment building reported destroyed with numerous entrapments, per PD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Another strong couplet heading for Beau in Metropolis, and Paducah, KY. He's got the bank vault, he's ok. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Very strong couplet, heading right for Metropolis, at only 411 feet AGL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Very strong couplet, heading right for Metropolis, at only 411 feet AGL. I hope Beau is staying safe and can give us a report later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I hope Beau is staying safe and can give us a report later. Couplet is completely gone now, I think he'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Actually maybe its not done. Power flashes with low hanging clouds reported in McCracken County near the Metropolis Airport. A mobile home reported destroyed somewhere in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 531 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHERN VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... NORTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 600 AM CST. * AT 529 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 6 MILES NORTH OF UNIONTOWN...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT VERNON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A LARGE TORNADO IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...MELODY HILL...NEWBURGH...CHANDLER AND KASSON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Couplet strengthening now, hook south of Evansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 90 kt couplet at 1500 feet AGL. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 559 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... EAST CENTRAL VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHERN WARRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 630 AM CST. * AT 557 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR NEWBURGH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A LARGE TORNADO IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... CHANDLER...BOONVILLE...DALE...SANTA CLAUS...TENNYSON...CHRISNEY AND GENTRYVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Widespread damage in the city of Newburgh, IN, numerous mutual aid coming in for people trapped. Here was the couplet at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 628 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 645 AM CST. * AT 625 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR GRANDVIEW...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKPORT. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN SPENCER COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 641 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0640 AM TORNADO MADISONVILLE 37.34N 87.51W 02/29/2012 HOPKINS KY TRAINED SPOTTER TORNADO ON THE GROUND REPORTED AT EXIT 44 ALONG THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 645 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 KYC107-149-177-291300- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/ MCLEAN KY-MUHLENBERG KY-HOPKINS KY- 645 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HOPKINS AND SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 AM CST... AT 640 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO CROSSING THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY AT EXIT 44. BLOWN TRANSFORMERS WERE ALSO BEING REPORTED. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I-65 corridor south from Louisville metro area including southern IN has 700 low level helicity and dews in 60-64 range and will be prime for tornadoes this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Spotter reports tornado on the ground in Hopkins County, KY, with significant damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Moderate Risk out, 15% hatched tornado, 45% wind. KY/TN/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Strong couplet near Rockport, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I can mention that Beau Dodson is busily working his weather facebook page this morning and reports that some of his family had damage west of the Metropolis airport but they are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.