Substantial tornado event, Tuesday 2/28 into Wednesday 2/29

[JoMo]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1110 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO

THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE

EVENING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY/SHEAR

PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN

BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES

WOULD INCREASE. SEVERE THREAT STILL EXPECTED TO END LATE TONIGHT AS

STORMS SHIFT EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG COLD FRONT. DID

INCREASE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES FURTHER

WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS EVENING AS LOCAL MODEL

DEVELOPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA.

[JoMo]

uhh

[JoMo]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

225 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK...PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED JOULES TO UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES. MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 750 JOULES TO UPWARDS OF 1500 JOULES. COUPLING THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THE PRIMARY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND A FEW RESULTANT TORNADOES. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE MAY BE SUPERCELLS...AND MAY THEREFORE BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. IN SHORT...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

[SouthernNJ]

First TOR up in south central Nebraska. Not sure if this one will verify just yet.

Would have liked to have seen an SVR first.

[SouthernNJ]

I would be more concerned about the storm near Broken Bow NE than

the one near Holdrege at the moment.

[Indystorm]

That Nebraska warning/probable watch is for cells currently forming and moving ne into the region. I am more concerned about late this evening/early overnight for ne OK, NW AR, and sw MO since RUC sig tornado parameter is up to 8 in that region for that time period.

[on_wx]

Jeffrey Gonzalas cam shows a wall cloud near Holdrege, Nebraska on that tornado warned storm.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL

900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

[SouthernNJ]

The storm now to the north of North Platte looks dangerous too.

Good thing it intensified after it passed the city.

[SouthernNJ]

The storm now to the north of North Platte looks dangerous too.

Good thing it intensified after it passed the city.

I can't believe they missed that. Report of tornado from spotters, even

if it is weak, this storm had fairly strong rotation for several scans before

the warning was issued.

[on_wx]

I can't believe they missed that. Report of tornado from spotters, even

if it is weak, this storm had fairly strong rotation for several scans before

the warning was issued.

Are you here to nitpick? You weren't happy with Hastings' tornado warning and now your not happy with this tornado warning.

[gabel23]

TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES

SOUTH OF STAPLETON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

[SouthernNJ]

The tornado-producing storm is now transitioning into more of a damaging

wind threat as it lines up.

[SouthernNJ]

The storms west of Concordia KS look to be getting close to some version

of a warning.

[SouthernNJ]

Concordia storm SVR warned, now turning more toward the right and may require TOR,

based on radar data.

[SmokeEater]

Concordia storm SVR warned, now turning more toward the right and may require TOR,

based on radar data.

It's TOR warned, nice couplet.

[SouthernNJ]

It's TOR warned, nice couplet.

This thing became powerful quickly. It has that minimum precipitation circle

where the tornado vortex signature is. If its occurring, it is likely shrouded

in rain and very dangerous.

[Chicago Storm]

Stapleton, NE tornado...

http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=13192&C=20643&O=2529270&fb_comment_id=fbc_360762890625055_4648330_360775380623806

[SmokeEater]

Strong couplet SW of Belleville, KS.

[baroclinic_instability]

Looking northeast when I was doing the 00z upper air flight. This was on the south end of the line that developed the tornado.

[on_wx]

Looking northeast when I was doing the 00z upper air flight. This was on the south end of the line that developed the tornado.

Great picture!

What is that little building? Looks like an observatory.

[Crazieman]

Watching a new storm already producing a couplet in SW Reno in KS (Due west of me!)

[baroclinic_instability]

Great picture!

What is that little building? Looks like an observatory.

It is actually the old optical theodolite for tracking upper air before we had GPOS. It is called the pibal shelter.

[JoMo]

AT 647 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED PERIODIC BRIEF

TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS 6 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH

HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[Buckeye05]

Moundridge area under the gun now.

[SouthernNJ]

AT 647 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED PERIODIC BRIEF

TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS 6 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH

HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

The Hutchinson storm looks to be re-organizing. They may need to extend the

TOR to the north and east.

[Buckeye05]

Decent couplet near Goessel.

[JoMo]

The Hutchinson storm looks to be re-organizing. They may need to extend the

TOR to the north and east.

They did.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

725 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 718 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF GOESSEL...OR 14 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF MCPHERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

This is new to me:

THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONCE AGAIN

INCREASING!

[JoMo]

From the new Day 1 outlook at 7:00 central:

WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN

NRN AR AND SRN MO...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-3 KM STORM

RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 500 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS SHOULD

SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS SFC

DEWPOINTS IN NRN AR INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR NEAR THE AR-MO STATE-LINE AND

NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AS LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT

SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE AND

PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THIS THREAT MOVING INTO WRN

KY AND SRN IL LATE.

[tornadotony]

From the new Day 1 outlook at 7:00 central:

WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN

NRN AR AND SRN MO...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-3 KM STORM

RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 500 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS SHOULD

SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS SFC

DEWPOINTS IN NRN AR INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S F AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN

ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR NEAR THE AR-MO STATE-LINE AND

NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AS LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT

SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE AND

PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THIS THREAT MOVING INTO WRN

KY AND SRN IL LATE.

Yeah, I'd have gone 10% hatched personally, but that's just me.

That storm N of Wichita is a beast.

[Buckeye05]

Strong rotation very close to Hillsboro.