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Substantial tornado event, Tuesday 2/28 into Wednesday 2/29

SmokeEater

By SmokeEater,
in Central/Western States

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted

Ok heard from a few people, it's most likely not my moms trailer park, but there's lots of lines down in that area, phones aren't working.

The damage path doesn't start until about 500 yards down the highway from her. I did notice possibly a small couplet going over that area but I didn't take time to compare it to BR and by the time I thought to it was off radarscope already.

I think all is ok. Haven't heard how the rest of Lebanon faired. The boat plant may have been struck I'm not sure, it was also struck by a tornado in November 1995.

Sent from my iPad HD

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Ok heard from a few people, it's most likely not my moms trailer park, but there's lots of lines down in that area, phones aren't working.

The damage path doesn't start until about 500 yards down the highway from her. I did notice possibly a small couplet going over that area but I didn't take time to compare it to BR and by the time I thought to it was off radarscope already.

I think all is ok. Haven't heard how the rest of Lebanon faired. The boat plant may have been struck I'm not sure, it was also struck by a tornado in November 1995.

Sent from my iPad HD

Is that the "tracker" plant?

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

Ok heard from a few people, it's most likely not my moms trailer park, but there's lots of lines down in that area, phones aren't working.

The damage path doesn't start until about 500 yards down the highway from her. I did notice possibly a small couplet going over that area but I didn't take time to compare it to BR and by the time I thought to it was off radarscope already.

I think all is ok. Haven't heard how the rest of Lebanon faired. The boat plant may have been struck I'm not sure, it was also struck by a tornado in November 1995.

Sent from my iPad HD

Great news :weight_lift:

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted
I heard earlier that there were a lot of boats blown around in Lebanon.

I don't know if you remember the storm 11/95 but was a 70 degree day, followed by a tornado and 3" of snow. I was 10 and that got me hooked on the weather. My mom was actually stuck in that storm driving home from work.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

This was definitely a dynamic setup. Springfield released several Mesoscale Convective Discussions tonight:

.DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 1258 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/

DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 5 AM.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE

SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE THREAT

FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK

AREA WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

REFERENCING SPC/S MESOANALYST PAGE...MLCAPE IS NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH

0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 750 M2/S2. GIVEN

925MB WINDS OF 50KT AND 850MB WINDS OF 70KT (AS MEASURED BY THE

04Z SPECIAL KSGF SOUNDING)...THE SRH VALUES PRODUCED ARE LIKELY

REPRESENTATIVE. RUC REPRESENTATION OF LOW LEVEL CAPE ESTIMATES

VALUES ARE 100 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SRH VALUES IN THE

LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED TORNADO RISK WITH THE BOW

ECHO SIGNATURE THAT IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL

MISSOURI AS WELL AS ANY OTHER LINE SEGMENTS THAT BECOME FAVORABLY

ORIENTED WITH THE WEST/SOUTHWEST 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN

AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 0215 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012/

A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO RACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL

MISSOURI AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 5 AM.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE

SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE THREAT

FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN

PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 5 AM.

DIVING INTO VARIOUS MESOSCALE PARAMETERS...SIGNIFICANT O-1KM AND

0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF OVER 800 M2/S2 ARE

AVAILABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. RUC BUFKIT

SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG 925MB

WINDS OF NEAR 50 KTS AND 850MB WINDS OF 60 TO 65KTS...WITH THIS

CONTINUING TO SUPPORT OUR STRONG SRH VALUES. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE

CONTINUES TO SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION.

RUC FORECASTS OF 0-1KM COMPUTED CAPE SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND

500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG

NOSING INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS. THESE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO

SUPPORT OUR ELEVATED TORNADO RISK WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING EAST

NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN

AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THIS

LINE OF STORMS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

Based on current data, it's pretty obvious that this event has both over-performed and managed to become a high-impact event across Northern Kansas and now South Missouri/Northwest Arkansas. I just got back into the house after chasing all of yesterday and last evening in Kansas/Oklahoma, so it's going to be interesting to see what the data looked like yesterday and what we can learn from this on-going event. It's tragic to see that our 2011 trend of tornadoes impacting densely populated areas continues.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

I would also like to add that it might be a smart idea to refrain from trying to make "arm-chair ratings" on this or any other potential tornado. The velocity couplet was not your classic violent looking tornado. It was definitely organized and could have done something between volume scans, but with so many trees located in that part of the world, they may have had something to do with the enhanced damage. We'll see what daylight brings. If it's obvious that this was a violent tornado verses a strong tornado (Violent is EF4-EF5, Strong is EF2-EF3) then I'll gladly take my comments back. Just my two sense before that habit gets going in the coming hours. There is no doubt this was a high-impact tornado in the sense it caused substantial damage in a highly-urbanized area, but we won't know how significant it was until we get some daylight and a storm survey out there. Personally, I bet that survey won't take long to get started since it's likely going to be receiving national attention by this afternoon.

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MrFusion70

MrFusion70

Posted
Posted

That Nebraska warning/probable watch is for cells currently forming and moving ne into the region. I am more concerned about late this evening/early overnight for ne OK, NW AR, and sw MO since RUC sig tornado parameter is up to 8 in that region for that time period.

Looks like you were spot on with this concern Joe!

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