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Severe threat Feb 28-Mar 1


Cheeznado

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Per @EastTNWeatherer on twitter:

CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND in DE Kalb County, this will be moving toward Cumberland County in the next 30 minutes!
http://forecast.weat...Tornado+Warning

This is the local NBC affiliate here in Knoxville, which has its 5 PM newscast online http://www.wbir.com/

I'm on the north side of Knoxville, between Powell and Halls Township. Will update if anything comes by.

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TNC035-049-292245-

/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120229T2245Z/

CUMBERLAND TN-FENTRESS TN-

434 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS AND

NORTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 429 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF MONTEREY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF

CROSSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

AT 350 PM CDT...DAMAGE FROM A LIKELY TORNADO WAS REPORTED NORTH OF

SMITHVILLE IN DE KALB COUNTY.

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mcd0189.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0436 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN TN/NORTH GA/WESTERN NC/WESTERN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...

VALID 292236Z - 292330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 48 CONTINUES.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED SHORTLY FOR REMAINING

PORTIONS OF EASTERN TN AS WELL AS FAR NORTH GA INTO WESTERN

NC/PERHAPS SC. AT THE VERY LEAST...A SPATIAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO

WATCH 48 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EASTERN TN.

A MODESTLY BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS

WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE

EASTERN THIRD OF TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPDRAFT

INTENSITIES HAVE TRENDED A BIT DOWNWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND

DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS IS WEAKER /ONLY

SEVERAL HUNDRED J PER KG SBCAPE/...A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY

MOISTURE INFLUX AND PROBABLE DOWNSTREAM/PRE-LINE

DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH A HIGHLY

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TNC035-049-292245-

/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120229T2245Z/

CUMBERLAND TN-FENTRESS TN-

434 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS AND

NORTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CST...

AT 429 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF MONTEREY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF

CROSSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

AT 350 PM CDT...DAMAGE FROM A LIKELY TORNADO WAS REPORTED NORTH OF

SMITHVILLE IN DE KALB COUNTY.

That storm looked great right in that area. I think a little interference with the surrounding storms quickly disrupted inflow after that, but for a time it was a very nice, discrete supercell.

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That storm looked great right in that area. I think a little interference with the surrounding storms quickly disrupted inflow after that, but for a time it was a very nice, discrete supercell.

Strange things almost always seem to happen as storms climb the Cumberland Plateau near Monterey.

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That storm looked great right in that area. I think a little interference with the surrounding storms quickly disrupted inflow after that, but for a time it was a very nice, discrete supercell.

"Great" ?? Not sure how a storm that causes that kind of damage can look great...maybe impressive but thats just me.

Looking for Oconee and Pickens counties to get involved in the next nader watch unfotunately!

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"Great" ?? Not sure how a storm that causes that kind of damage can look great...maybe impressive but thats just me.

Looking for Oconee and Pickens counties to get involved in the next nader watch unfotunately!

Was I rooting for the storm, or damage, injuries, etc.?

Radar presentation was great, as in excellent structure for a discrete storm separating itself from the line.

If we want to play with semantics, impressive has meanings that don't apply so well to damaging storms either.

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Was I rooting for the storm, or damage, injuries, etc.?

Radar presentation was great, as in excellent structure for a discrete storm separating itself from the line.

If we want to play with semantics, impressive has meanings that don't apply so well to damaging storms either.

Strongly agree. At the risk of going OT and testing weather-side rules, I dare say there are enough folks on here misrepresenting their own level of "concern" and "fear" over radar images they're actually greatly excited by that we need not attack someone like yourself for a more honest approach.

NW AL cell looking less impressive over the last 10-15 minutes.

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NW AL cell looking less impressive over the last 10-15 minutes.

I'm loving the dual-pol equipped sites. You can see a nice a nice ZDR column in western Walker County. This is the southwestern flank of the storm, and indicating that we're still getting nice inflow and regeneration of the updraft in that location.

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You can see the strongest low level reflectivity is north and northwest of Jasper, AL. But aloft (~ 13000 ft) the ZDR column is suggesting liquid drops (updraft) to the southwest.

When the environment supports it, we'll be able to see separate updrafts within an area of precip before storm splitting occurs. This won't happen in every case, but I've already seen a few good examples.

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1 fatality confirmed in DeKalb County, TN as a result of a house collapsing on a man. This storm was TOR warned and likely had a tornado down at the time.

At the time it looked fairly certain there was something on the ground around Smithville. I agree that this was most likely the result of a tornado.

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Heads up. New tornado watch issued not too long ago:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

635 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH GEORGIA

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM

UNTIL 100 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS...INCLUDING SOME

EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS

EWD/ESEWD FROM AL/TN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY

IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...BUT A GRADUAL

INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EARLY TONIGHT WILL TEND TO

OFFSET THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONG

DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF

WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT

A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A

TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED STORMS.

ww0053_radar_big.gif

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