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Severe threat Feb 28-Mar 1


Cheeznado

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AP news alert just hit the iphone, 10 killed in IL town of Harrisburg from storms... Expect a md for central TN shortly, and watch, sig tor values of 2 fixed layer, 3 effective with dp surging into the 60's.

Edit: KSDK picking up on it, 100 injured, between 250-300 structures damaged or destroyed.

http://www.ksdk.com/...isburg-Illinois

I have a brother in-law that is a cop in Harrisburg. He says there is major damage in town and they are a lot of people trapped in their homes

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Big watch just issued for KY/TN, even a few VA counties, in effect till 8pm CST.

ww0048_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 48

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1135 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY

TENNESSEE

FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL

800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON

KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS /INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS/ OVER CNTRL KY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WATCH AREA...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING

FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE MID

MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL

LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF

GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-

AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/

AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.

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Big watch just issued for KY/TN, even a few VA counties, in effect till 8pm CST.

ww0048_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 48

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1135 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY

TENNESSEE

FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL

800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON

KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS /INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS/ OVER CNTRL KY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WATCH AREA...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING

FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE MID

MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL

LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF

GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-

AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/

AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.

Yeah, seems to be just shy of PDS criteria. Probs for tornadoes are 80/60

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TNC125-291800-

/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120229T1800Z/

MONTGOMERY TN-

1145 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL

NOON CST...

AT 1142 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ERIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55

MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CLARKSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

post-5832-0-88808100-1330537728.jpg

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I am surprised no one has mentioned the Special Weather Statement that GSP put out. I rarely see GSP put out statements like this concerning severe weather.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

136 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-

068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010100-

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-

IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-

CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-

TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-

CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-

BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-

RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-

EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-

GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-

GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-

LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...

HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...

SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...

HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...

HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...

CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...

RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...

ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...

GREENWOOD

136 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH

CAROLINA..UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA..AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS

EASTERN TENNESSEE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STORMS REACHING

THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS

A GOOD CHANCE THAT SEVERAL OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO

PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE

INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND. THERE

WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUCH

THAT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE RARE

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN WINTER...THE WEATHER

SITUATION THIS EVENING IS MUCH MORE LIKE SPRINGTIME...SO A FEW

TORNADOES SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE

DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA...REACHING NORTHEAST

GEORGIA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. IF THESE STORMS

DEVELOP...THEY WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPSTATE LATE THIS

EVENING...AND TOWARD THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW SUPERCELL

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT

FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

IT IS UNCERTAIN IF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVER

THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT THERE IS

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN

THOSE AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LATER DEVELOPMENTS...SUCH AS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE

BECOMES UNSTABLE AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR...WILL DETERMINE IF

ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MONITOR THE FORECAST

LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE GOING TO BED TONIGHT...TO

SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE DEVELOPING. TORNADOES CAN BE MOST

DANGEROUS LATE AT NIGHT WHEN PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING AND DO NOT HAVE A

WAY OF RECEIVING WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MOORE

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Not really impressed right now with this crap moving through Nashville.

I'd blame CNN. They've been calling for tornadoes of death and doom all afternoon -- even at times saying more deaths will happen today. They even have that little hurricane tracker window on the screen tracking radar.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0223 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...NWRN NC...FAR NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292023Z - 292130Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 22Z ACROSS WRN VA...NWRN

NC...FAR NERN TN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD

OF ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER KY/TN/WV...WITH THE SVR THREAT

SPREADING EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE MARGINAL

INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR

DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND

LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES

..COHEN.. 02/29/2012

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...

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Harrisburg IL was an EF4, the pic of the cash store in a shopping complex was impressive to say the least, structure had steal supports ad those were basically collapsed. Large steal beam just dropped in places, violent tornado.

Anyone noticing this line maybe taking on a more discrete appearance as it moves into E TN, can count 3 or 4 cells not nearly as embedded compared to an hour ago.

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Harrisburg IL was an EF4, the pic of the cash store in a shopping complex was impressive to say the least, structure had steal supports ad those were basically collapsed. Large steal beam just dropped in places, violent tornado.

Anyone noticing this line maybe taking on a more discrete appearance as it moves into E TN, can count 3 or 4 cells not nearly as embedded compared to an hour ago.

That's a really nice environment in TN right now.

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