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Severe threat Feb 28-Mar 1


Cheeznado

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Saturday looks a lot more impressive for NC than Wednesday as far as the severe threat goes. Of course, it's a while away. The threat here last Friday turned into a dud.

I agree, last Friday was nothing around here. We barley got any rain from the "storms". I hope Wednesday and Saturday feature something in the way severe thunderstorms.

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Saturday looks a lot more impressive for NC than Wednesday as far as the severe threat goes. Of course, it's a while away. The threat here last Friday turned into a dud.

Not everywhere though. I have to go up on my roof and repair some singles and a soffett that pulled loose.

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Surprised no one is talking about the potential significant severe weather later this week. The 12z Euro was disgusting as well as the 18z gfs after it backed off a little on the 12z run.

It's in W/F:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32986-severe-potential-march-2nd3rd-ov-tn-valley-mid-south-deep-south/page__pid__1411456

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Surprised no one is talking about the potential significant severe weather later this week. The 12z Euro was disgusting as well as the 18z gfs after it backed off a little on the 12z run.

there's a thread in the main wx page for this event since it is probable to span 2-3 regional zones. Makes it a bit more consolidated when talking about the grand scheme.

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Latest thinking out of FFC:

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTH

GEORGIA.

INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS

FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO THE STATE...WITH THE BEST COLOCATED CAPE AND

0-3KM SHEAR NEAR 500 J/KG AND 65-70KTS...RESPECTIVELY. HAVE

CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER WEDNESDAY...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL

SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED

OUT.

THE THREAT DIMINISHES INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT

CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISH

THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM.

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The SPC just upgraded today's outlook with a hatched moderate area for basically the whole state of TN and bordering county in the surrounding states.

Just saw the update out of SPC to mod. risk. Wasn't really expecting that today, but storms really going at it this AM, didn't seem to quiet down overnight. If we get some sun over northern Ala/Ga it could be a rough afternoon.

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Media reporting a tornado on the ground with the cell south of Louisville, KY. Storms are definitely not calming down during the AM hours this go round. Looks also like they're trying to go more discrete the last hour or so.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

1006 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC093-123-179-291530-

/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120229T1530Z/

LARUE KY-NELSON KY-HARDIN KY-

1006 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST FOR EASTERN

HARDIN...WESTERN NELSON AND NORTHERN LARUE COUNTIES...

AT 1005 AM EST...THE MEDIA REPORTED A TORNADO ON HODGENSVILLE ROAD

IN LARUE COUNTY AROUND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROANOKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45

MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

ELIZABETHTOWN...

NELSONVILLE AND BOSTON...

BALLTOWN...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

1009 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC093-123-179-291530-

/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120229T1530Z/

LARUE KY-NELSON KY-HARDIN KY-

1009 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST FOR EASTERN

HARDIN...WESTERN NELSON AND NORTHERN LARUE COUNTIES...

AT 1005 AM EST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR ROANOKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

NELSONVILLE AND BOSTON...

BALLTOWN...

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Something to watch for us folks on the other side of the mountains, per the SPC:

"THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR MCS LATER THIS AFTN AND TNGT.

PART OF THE THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E TO VICINITY OF WARM FRONT IN SRN VA/NC...

POSING AN OVERNIGHT SVR RISK/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADOES/ IN THAT REGION."

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Something to watch for us folks on the other side of the mountains, per the SPC:

"THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR MCS LATER THIS AFTN AND TNGT.

PART OF THE THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E TO VICINITY OF WARM FRONT IN SRN VA/NC...

POSING AN OVERNIGHT SVR RISK/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADOES/ IN THAT REGION."

The bad part is it would be overnight when people are asleep.

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I think NWS Louisville is more relevant to the Lake/OV side, but that's just me.

Prob. right, but I still got college football on the mind (Kentucky = SEC) :) Anyway, saw this update on the region home page:

DAMAGING TORNADO MOVING INTO LARUE COUNTY

A TORNADO HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES NEAR GLENDALE (HARDIN COUNTY) AND ALONG HODGENVILLE ROAD (KY 210) NORTHWEST OF HODGENVILLE. A FACTORY WAS BADLY DAMAGED AS WELL. LARUE COUNTY AND WESTERN NELSON COUNTY ARE IN GREAT DANGER -- ALL RESIDENTS OF LARUE COUNTY AND WESTERN NELSON COUNTY MUST BE IN SHELTER NOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND BOSTON...BALLTOWN...AND NELSONVILLE.

Sounds pretty serious.

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AP news alert just hit the iphone, 10 killed in IL town of Harrisburg from storms... Expect a md for central TN shortly, and watch, sig tor values of 2 fixed layer, 3 effective with dp surging into the 60's.

Edit: KSDK picking up on it, 100 injured, between 250-300 structures damaged or destroyed.

http://www.ksdk.com/...isburg-Illinois

Edit 2: Another AP news alert, total revised down to 6 fatalities in southern IL.

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