Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 OK, here is the seprate thread. First wave which give the Midwest/Plains its snow will gring up GOM moisture with severe possible in TX/AR/LA Tuesday, maybe GA/Carolinas Wednesday. Then since this front only makes it to the northern GOM the pump should be primed for the next Pacific wave- which varies in intensity in the models but most suggest that this one could realy mean business- the Op Euro is pretty scary but an outlier for now in the extreme depth and negative tilt. In any event those of us who are severe hounds will be watching things unfold closerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 OK, here is the seprate thread. First wave which give the Midwest/Plains its snow will gring up GOM moisture with severe possible in TX/AR/LA Tuesday, maybe GA/Carolinas Wednesday. Then since this front only makes it to the northern GOM the pump should be primed for the next Pacific wave- which varies in intensity in the models but most suggest that this one could realy mean business- the Op Euro is pretty scary but an outlier for now in the extreme depth and negative tilt. In any event those of us who are severe hounds will be watching things unfold closerly. Who would the second Pacific wave affect? The Arklatex region or all of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 looks like friday will be worse than wednesday, either way not looking forward to either one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro really loses all traces of a threat for next Friday...although Saturday in the Carolinas looks interesting on it. With that said look at this on the CMC at 144 and 150... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ...and my concern is definitely elevated concerning the Tuesday/Wednesday threat across the Ozarks and Mid South looking at the 12z Euro. 850 temps are above 10 degrees C across virtually the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro really loses all traces of a threat for next Friday...although Saturday in the Carolinas looks interesting on it. If you read between the lines on the 12Z Euro, it is still in the process of coming to the same conclusion with the trough as it did on last night's run.... but for whatever reason... it is substantially slower in doing so. It's a phasing issue. The fact that it STILL pieces together that large trough, with a rapidly deepening surface low, when all the other models are trending stronger with the trough for the Thursday-Friday timeframe... still concerns me significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 If you read between the lines on the 12Z Euro, it is still in the process of coming to the same conclusion with the trough as it did on last night's run.... but for whatever reason... it is substantially slower in doing so. It's a phasing issue. The fact that it STILL pieces together that large trough, with a rapidly deepening surface low, when all the other models are trending stronger with the trough for the Thursday-Friday timeframe... still concerns me significantly. Yeah, that's what I kinda thought as well, it is close to dropping the big trough, but it just happens for the Carolinas. CMC's verbatim would probably be something significant across the Mid South and Lower OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I have greater concerns with the 2nd system late next week. With a potent low-amplitude trough dropping into the Deep South crashing into a warm unstable air-mass across the Mid-South/Dixie Alley tends to lead to trouble across the region. Even so there is increasing concerns with this topic's system, 12Z Euro like Andyhb mentioned has a large warm sector 60 Tds nosing into the Ohio Valley...Soundings show long clockwise curved hodo signatures with SReH ranging from 400-600 M^2/S^2 out ahead of main convective line, which supports discrete activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 As an little sidenote, we're also approaching the 5 year anniversary of the Enterprise, AL/Americus, GA outbreak on March 1st, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Quick look at 18Z GFS sounding for KFFC (only one I have atm). I'm seeing a better hydrolapse, rapid change of moisture with height, than with previous runs which has contributed to better instability shown with SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/KG and LI falling to -4. Wind profiles unidirectional in nature when instability is maximized. With 6KM bulk shear 50-65KTs, and 0-6KM helicity 35-40 M/S or 250-350 M2/S2 which should support severe storms with damaging winds main threat...This will of course change with still 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS ensembles for the Friday/Saturday threat at 156 hrs, several of them going pretty knucklebusters (Keep in mind this is Saturday morning, not at peak heating): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ARKLATEX...ERN OK AND SERN KS TO WRN MID-SOUTH REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MENTIONED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK OVER WRN CONUS...IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO COMPACT MID-UPPER CYCLONE DURING FIRST HALF OF DAY-3 PERIOD...WHILE MOVING ENEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. BY 29/00Z...500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NEB/SD...REACHING IA/MN BORDER REGION BY END OF PERIOD. TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SSW OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTER...AT SOMEWHAT LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN PROGGED BY PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. AT SFC...DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL EJECT NEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SRN MN...BECOMING NEARLY STACKED WITH RESPECT TO MID-UPPER LOW BY END OF PERIOD. ATTACHED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD OUT OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY IN PERIOD...REACHING ERN KS...CENTRAL OK AND PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF W TX BY 29/00Z. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/SRN IL...S-CENTRAL AR AND S-CENTRAL TX BY 29/12Z. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD INFUSE WARM SECTOR TO YIELD DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NRN COAHUILA NNEWD TO SWRN OK. THIS BOUNDARY THEN WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ...PORTIONS ARKLATEX...ERN OK AND SERN KS TO WRN MID-SOUTH REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND NE OF DRYLINE...AS SRN FRINGES OF MOST VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERLAP INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING 60S F. ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE IN 29/00Z-29/06Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW IS FCST TO VEER WITH TIME AHEAD OF COLD FROPA...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. LINEAR AND SUPERCELLULAR MODES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH FULL SPECTRUM OF SVR THREATS...MAINLY IN FORM OF WIND AND TORNADO RISK. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND WITH NEWD EXTENT AS CONVECTIVE REGIME MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER BUOYANCY. FARTHER NE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT...MOVING NEWD OVER OH VALLEY REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN 30-35 KT RANGE...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED HAIL THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AND LOW-TOPPED TSTMS...PERHAPS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ARE POSSIBLE MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON INVOF KS/NEB BORDER...IN ZONE OF STG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. STG COOLING ALOFT...AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE SFC THETAE AIDED BY DIABATIC HEATING...SHOULD WEAKEN CINH AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARY. THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MESOSCALE IN NATURE FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 02/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I started a thread for Tuesday's event in the Central subforum, being that's where the event is located. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 TWC (I know, I know) is actually advertising a severe wx outbreak for my area next saturday in the extended local on the 8's Saturday is actually highlighted in RED with a description at the bottom below the forecast. Ive never seen that on there, especially 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 TWC (I know, I know) is actually advertising a severe wx outbreak for my area next saturday in the extended local on the 8's Saturday is actually highlighted in RED with a description at the bottom below the forecast. Ive never seen that on there, especially 6 days out. I noticed that also. They have a LOT of areas shaded in red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I noticed that also. They have a LOT of areas shaded in red. One thing that will be interesting this spring is to see if the awareness is going to be higher than usual. It does seem that last year's horrendous season has pumped up the urgency with some of the media outlets, so we'll see if that translates to the general public paying more attention. It still boggles my mind that during an April 2011-like event, there are still people that are completely oblivious to what's going on around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 One thing that will be interesting this spring is to see if the awareness is going to be higher than usual. It does seem that last year's horrendous season has pumped up the urgency with some of the media outlets, so we'll see if that translates to the general public paying more attention. It still boggles my mind that during an April 2011-like event, there are still people that are completely oblivious to what's going on around them. Well I just looked again and we are no longer in the red shaded area. I'm anxious to see what this spring and summer brings. I know I shouldn't say that I'm sick of the rain, but I would love it if we would have just one DRY week. My yard is a soppy mess. Remind me of this when I'm begging for rain this summer for my gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z GFS has trended upward with the second system and the GFS ensembles/Euro continue to go knucklebusters with it. CMC has more pronounced shortwave diving out of the broader long wave trough and also looks significant, especially with the sfc cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z GFS has trended upward with the second system and the GFS ensembles/Euro continue to go knucklebusters with it. CMC has more pronounced shortwave diving out of the broader long wave trough and also looks significant, especially with the sfc cyclogenesis. Definitely a growing concern with late next week's potential system. LLJs at 850-925MB are screaming, with hodographs just plain crazy even into the overnight hours...If 0Z models can hold serve to 18Z GFS/GFS ensembles I wouldn't doubt SPC outline a risk in their Day 4-8 outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 00z GFS is just scary for the second storm system... Look at this beast of an Upper Jet at 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Very powerful upper and lower jets indicated at 120 hrs for the affected areas on this evening's GFS with abundant moisture and instability make this a very volatile situation if the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 When you see LI's like this 117 hrs out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Now isn't it possible we could get a lot of crapvection out of this system because of the very strong dynamics and lower level moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0Z GFS continues to show quite an ominous system later this week. Rapidly deepening SLP tracking at 998MB over Kansas to 980MB over Michigan in a 12 hour time span! Instability isn't going to be problem with 60 Tds nosing into S IL and 65+ Tds moving into E AR/ N MS/ and W AL....CAPE shown as 1000+ J/KG with LI's in the -4 to -8 range, keep in mind still 5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Very powerful upper and lower jets indicated at 120 hrs for the affected areas on this evening's GFS with abundant moisture and instability make this a very volatile situation if the model is correct. Lets hope the model is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well, the Euro just went absolutely insane...so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well, the Euro just went absolutely insane...so... It sho did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I was really hoping that we would have a very "uneventful" spring. I really appreciate you guys doing your analysis though. I'll make sure to stay posted and keep my family posted on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 No wedge on the euro either. Lots of times we have a great setup but it gets ruined by NE winds/cad. Temps around 70 the day before and maybe over east ga the day of, but unfortunately the 0z run has it coming in during the morning. Hopefully it speeds up a bit to bring it in during the afternoon. Looking forward to seeing storms, although nothing impressive, when there was some lightning and thunder the other day..I got excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Saturday looks a lot more impressive for NC than Wednesday as far as the severe threat goes. Of course, it's a while away. The threat here last Friday turned into a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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