beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Virtually every other model including the NOGAPS and the DGX, which have proven exceedingly bad at predicting such scenarios, and even they have relatively impressive verbatims. Was baroclinic_instability talking about models like that? I'm confused. Should we instead look indices like the NAO, AO, and the PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No he was mentioning the ensembles from the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Was baroclinic_instability talking about models like that? I'm confused. Should we instead look indices like the NAO, AO, and the PNA? No he was mentioning the ensembles from the Euro and the GFS. Doesn't matter what models, a lot more goes into these forecasts than NOGAPS/CMC/ECENS/GEFS/"Pick your global model". I am not understating the potential at all (ceiling is high for early March), just it isn't so simple when it actually comes to forecasting and delineating probs as opposed to looking at solutions from the comfort of your home. And yes, teleconnections, discussion with HPC, analogs, climo, etc. are also used in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I understand the outlook, I just question the reasons they mentioned in issuing it, that's all, particularly the more precise reasons outside of the whole model issue (i.e. moisture problems/Gulf FROPA/etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I understand the outlook, I just question the reasons they mentioned in issuing it, that's all, particularly the more precise reasons outside of the whole model issue (i.e. moisture problems/Gulf FROPA/etc.). Most important here...it is worth mentioning that potential does not equate to probability. I think sometimes, with potential major events, the two become clouded since hype and the high ceiling potential make it seem it is a higher probability event. I don't disagree, however, that the potential is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Most important here...it is worth mentioning that potential does not equate to probability. I think sometimes, with potential major events, the two become clouded since hype and the high ceiling potential make it seem it is a higher probability event. I don't disagree, however, that the potential is very high. Fair enough, and they do mention severe is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It'll be interesting to see what happens with the trough ahead of the March 2nd event. The ECMWF and GFS have differed substantially regarding this feature, with the former shearing it out and weakening it much more quickly. Such a scenario would mean the front doesn't get quite to the Gulf Coast, resulting in a quicker moisture recovery for a larger area. This would mean a much broader warm sector for the next system instead of the sharp inverted-V shaped warm sector that typically is a limiting factor in early season severe weather events. http://www.txtornado..._gfs_all_18.htm Looking at the above dprog/dt maps, the GFS has definitely trended weaker with the first wave and more in line with what the ECMWF has shown. This increases the confidence in the broad warm sector scenario. It's pretty much up to the evolution of the main trough itself from here on out, as the thermodynamics will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Most important here...it is worth mentioning that potential does not equate to probability. I think sometimes, with potential major events, the two become clouded since hype and the high ceiling potential make it seem it is a higher probability event. I don't disagree, however, that the potential is very high. Agree, you have to take a step back and look at the situation in simple terms. Snow storms are hard enough to forecast at 90+ hrs out since they are extremely dependent on the track of the surface low and whether the system is neg/pos tilted etc. Convective situations are even more volatile to forecast that far in advance since the position of the 500/700/850 low are even more important to the forecast in conjunction with the track of the sfc low to generate the shear. I would almost say each level 500/700/850 you add to the forecast adds exponentially to the probability of error in the forecast. The ingredients will likely be there but now we have to wait to see if it can all come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Now that we have a significant potential threat centered on the 2/3 of March which may span multiple sub-regions, someone is more than welcome to start a disco thread here in W/F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Now that we have a significant potential threat centered on the 2/3 of March which may span multiple sub-regions, someone is more than welcome to start a disco thread here in W/F. Done: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32986-severe-potential-march-3rd-ov-tn-valley-mid-south-deep-south/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not even a week ago, the Euro was promising a significant thunderstorm event locally for my birthday, and while it still looks like it could happen, it doesn't look to be near MBY. But glass always half full. This could be big... Sure, surface winds look a bit veered, but it is almost 9 days out, it can change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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