Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Several ENS members from previous runs have also had this. Then it deepens to sub 980 mb at 132 hours. Impressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sfc winds are due south/backed across virtually the entire warm sector from Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sfc winds are due south/backed across virtually the entire warm sector from Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. That's completely expected with the kind of ageostrophic (isallobaric) response you're going to have with such a strong and deepening cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Talk about directional shear with that verbatim and I don't even want to mention what that sfc low/H5 profile mirrors almost exactly in everyway... Also, favorable height falls stretch all the way to the Gulf Coast (even into the Gulf). If I was still in a chat with Fred, which we were when the 00z GFS came out...he probably would've fallen out of his chair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That is quite an impressive solution coming from the Euro, hell it puts us up here into the upper 50s Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Talk about directional shear with that verbatim and I don't even want to mention what that sfc low/H5 profile mirrors almost exactly in everyway... Also, favorable height falls stretch all the way to the Gulf Coast (even into the Gulf). If I was still in a chat with Fred, which we were when the 00z GFS came out...he probably would've fallen out of his chair... I hate getting so detailed at this point, but since you mentioned it, there ~45 degree crossover between 850/500 mb across much of the OV/mid south at 00z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That warm sector is absolutely gigantic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Virtually all of the 00z GFS ensembles going knucklebusters yet again, with some of them stronger than the GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So possibly in what the Euro is showing, we would get initial development east of a line from Shreveport, LA to Little Rock, AR to Cape Girardeau, MO in the early-to-mid afternoon on Friday, probably in the form of supercells perhaps eventually congealing into an MLCS. By the time 6 PM rolls around the supercells/MLCS would be perhaps from Monroe, LA to Grenada, MS to Lexington, KY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So possibly in what the Euro is showing, we would get initial development east of a line from Shreveport, LA to Little Rock, AR to Cape Girardeau, MO in the early-to-mid afternoon on Friday, probably in the form of supercells perhaps eventually congealing into an MLCS. By the time 6 PM rolls around the supercells/MLCS would be perhaps from Monroe, LA to Grenada, MS to Lexington, KY? Way too early to get into specifics like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Way too early to get into specifics like this. Still, it's an interesting setup and it's interesting that the models seem to be holding onto it. I'm looking forward to the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Still, it's an interesting setup and it's interesting that the models seem to be holding onto it. I'm looking forward to the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook. Oh of course, I agree this is quite an interesting setup with a fairly high ceiling, if all the ingredients come together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I posted this on another forum; so, it briefly references a discussion that didn't take place here, but it still fully explains the point.... The Canadian and UKMET are ominously similar to the GFS/Euro blended solution. The GFS ensembles continue to lock on. The NAM at 84 hours is digging the second jet streak into the West Coast at the same angle and intensity. Even the NOGAPS, but it's faster. Like I said before, this is a case where wave #1's energy helps carve out the larger-scale longwave trough that both shortwaves "drive through". Wave #1's height falls just so happened to come onshore in time to be sampled by the 00Z soundings this evening. Now, all of a sudden, everything has converged on one common solution. I'll say it again.... we still have time for "escape routes" to be activated out of this caliber of a risk.... but things like this aren't just model "flukes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Predictability still too low for SPC: IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PAC JET MAX MOVING INTO GREAT BASIN REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAY-4/1ST-2ND AMPLIFICATION OF WRN-CONUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS AMONGST MREF MEMBERS...AND BETWEEN OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/UKMET/ECMWF...RESULT IN GREAT VARIATION OF TIMING/DEPTH/TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND OF RELATED BOUNDARIES. THESE DISCREPANCIES SPREAD APART EVEN MORE DAY-5/2ND-3RD. POLEWARD EXTENT OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN ALSO IS IN QUESTION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK. SOME SVR IS LIKELY DURING DAY-4/DAY-5 TIME FRAME...GENERALLY FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. ATTM...HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC AREA OF 30% UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't even... You don't even what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Predictability still too low for SPC: IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PAC JET MAX MOVING INTO GREAT BASIN REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAY-4/1ST-2ND AMPLIFICATION OF WRN-CONUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL YIELD SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS AMONGST MREF MEMBERS...AND BETWEEN OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/UKMET/ECMWF...RESULT IN GREAT VARIATION OF TIMING/DEPTH/TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND OF RELATED BOUNDARIES. THESE DISCREPANCIES SPREAD APART EVEN MORE DAY-5/2ND-3RD. POLEWARD EXTENT OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN ALSO IS IN QUESTION FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK. SOME SVR IS LIKELY DURING DAY-4/DAY-5 TIME FRAME...GENERALLY FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. ATTM...HOWEVER...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC AREA OF 30% UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. Yet, if you were to take over 95% of the 00Z guidance tonight for 120 hours out, and print out each image individually on projector transparency sheets, they would overlap almost perfectly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am a bit surprised by the lack of an outlook myself, all the models show a significant potential in the day 4-5 range down South at least with some extending up into the OV region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The 12z Euro seems to hold onto its strong solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Starting to really look like another active tornado/severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 As far as I can tell, the 12z GFS ensembles are still showing pretty strong for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Starting to really look like another active tornado/severe weather season. The switch back to a La Nina global state was very poor timing (or good timing if you are a storm chaser). Pay attention this spring (like last spring) for MJO waves, AAM orbits and when the final warming occurs in the stratosphere. If they tend to produce El Nino-like characteristics on the flow, they will produce a lull in activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 As far as I can tell, the 12z GFS ensembles are still showing pretty strong for Friday. Still a fair amount of spread especially in terms of timing (a number of them are slower than the op) but most have a pretty strong system. And then there's member P004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The 18z GFS op is both stronger and slower than the 12z for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't even... you don't what? There is a big difference between looking at the models and taking worst case scenario and hyping it and actually delineating probs for severe DMC, especially in this synoptic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 you don't what? There is a big difference between looking at the models and taking worst case scenario and hyping it and actually delineating probs for severe DMC, especially in this synoptic scenario. My mistake for not going more in depth, but I thought the reasons they specified for not issuing an outlook were questionable at best... i) The point that Fred mentioned stuck out most. ii) Virtually all of the models showed very little trouble with moisture advection (even quite far north), and they continue to do so. iii) The 00z suite of models all came out as the data from the first mid/upper jet streak digging on the west coast was being processed, leading to higher confidence on how the second trough would evolve. iv) The first system it appears, especially now looking at the models, but also evident last night, will not affect the Gulf in a negative way with FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My mistake for not going more in depth, but I thought the reasons they specified for not issuing an outlook were questionable at best... i) The point that Fred mentioned stuck out most. ii) Virtually all of the models showed very little trouble with moisture advection (even quite far north), and they continue to do so. iii) The 00z suite of models all came out as the data from the first mid/upper jet streak digging on the west coast was being processed, leading to higher confidence on how the second trough would evolve. iv) The first system it appears, especially now looking at the models, but also evident last night, will not affect the Gulf in a negative way with FROPA. There is plenty of time to get the word out should this event unfold as some guidance progs it. But it isn't as simple as looking at MREF/ECENS and noting they all look similar. If they simply did that, they would bust a ton of events since data limitations only allow us to see so "much" w.r.t. the atmosphere. No different than looking at the 16 day GEFS and noting certain patterns it suggests may develop...just because the mean shows us something doesn't mean it will verify! Also worth noting that this setup is partially dependent upon the lead anomaly rapidly deepening, otherwise you get a rather junky warm sector with straight hodos. If you look closer not every ensemble member suggests such a scenario (i.e., a rapidly deepening cyclone ejecting through the OV) even if nearly all prog a negative height anomaly tracking through the OV/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 There is plenty of time to get the word out should this event unfold as some guidance progs it. But it isn't as simple as looking at MREF/ECENS and noting they all look similar. If they simply did that, they would bust a ton of events since data limitations only allow us to see so "much" w.r.t. the atmosphere. No different than looking at the 16 day GEFS and noting certain patterns it suggests may develop...just because the mean shows us something doesn't mean it will verify! Also worth noting that this setup is partially dependent upon the lead anomaly rapidly deepening, otherwise you get a rather junky warm sector with straight hodos. If you look closer not every ensemble member suggests such a scenario even if nearly all prog a negative height anomaly tracking through the OV/SE. I wasn't just looking at those models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I wasn't just looking at those models... What else were you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What else were you looking at? Virtually every other model including the NOGAPS and the DGX, which have proven exceedingly bad at predicting such scenarios, and even they have relatively impressive verbatims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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