Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Models are all advertising a destructive day around SNE tomorrow. Winds should gust 50+ for all sites and the Cape, islands, Eastern mass and the hills could gust 55-60. Suspect we'll see upgrade to HWW at some point for most. Wiz is charging up the ham battery as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Image is the 12z NAM valid 18z Saturday. Overlaid are the 850 winds in knots & 1000-850 lapse rates. Soundings from both the GFS and NAM have shown near dry-adiabatic profiles to 850mb (some hours and locales more like 800 mb), at times Saturday. Notice the NAM showing the better than 9C/km low-level lapse rates across a big chunk of SNE early tomorrow afternoon. As today/tonight's system bombs out northeast of Maine the backside jet really rips across all of NYS (tonight) and over New England on Saturday. While the core of strongest winds (65 to 75 knots at 850) happen during the morning hours and then shift offshore, lapse rates are deeper during the midday and afternoon period and winds aloft are still quite strong - 45 to 55 knots at 850. Closer examination of the soundings show mean winds in the BL across a lot of SNE in the 35-45 knot range. Past experience would suggest that's good for a lot of 40 to 50 mph gusts alone. But throughout just about all of the region - and for most of the day - winds atop the mixing layer are frequently in the range of 50 to 60 knots. Down on the Cape and out on ACK, mean winds are closer to 50 knots in the morning with winds atop the BL at times peaking closer to 65 knots. MOS is even showing most of the region with sustained 20 to 30 knots of wind Sat - for MOS, that's a red flag. I could see two pulses to this event - one during the 7-10AM period Sat morning (more so in E & SE areas) then again from midday through mid-afternoon for the entire area. Without foliage or precipitation falling, there shouldn't be widespread CTBlizz devastation, but probably enough tree/limb damage to cause some isolated to scattered power outages etc. Event should be good for a lot of Ginx tree top gusts and plenty of 50+ mph reports across SNE. Wiz get the ham ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This is an awesome post and a great way to start a thread. Hopefully this works out as modelled. Winds like that are impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Image is the 12z NAM valid 18z Saturday. Overlaid are the 850 winds in knots & 1000-850 lapse rates. Soundings from both the GFS and NAM have shown near dry-adiabatic profiles to 850mb (some hours and locales more like 800 mb), at times Saturday. Notice the NAM showing the better than 9C/km low-level lapse rates across a big chunk of SNE early tomorrow afternoon. As today/tonight's system bombs out northeast of Maine the backside jet really rips across all of NYS (tonight) and over New England on Saturday. While the core of strongest winds (65 to 75 knots at 850) happen during the morning hours and then shift offshore, lapse rates are deeper during the midday and afternoon period and winds aloft are still quite strong - 45 to 55 knots at 850. Closer examination of the soundings show mean winds in the BL across a lot of SNE in the 35-45 knot range. Past experience would suggest that's good for a lot of 40 to 50 mph gusts alone. But throughout just about all of the region - and for most of the day - winds atop the mixing layer are frequently in the range of 50 to 60 knots. Down on the Cape and out on ACK, mean winds are closer to 50 knots in the morning with winds atop the BL at times peaking closer to 65 knots. MOS is even showing most of the region with sustained 20 to 30 knots of wind Sat - for MOS, that's a red flag. I could see two pulses to this event - one during the 7-10AM period Sat morning (more so in E & SE areas) then again from midday through mid-afternoon for the entire area. Without foliage or precipitation falling, there shouldn't be widespread CTBlizz devastation, but probably enough tree/limb damage to cause some isolated to scattered power outages etc. Event should be good for a lot of Ginx tree top gusts and plenty of 50+ mph reports across SNE. Wiz get the ham ready. Nice post, explains a lot, thanks. Nice to have interesting weather again to discuss. I will keep an eye peeled on the tree tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 That's a nice product. I was thinking about that two part wind deal as well. I wouldn't be shocked of BOS pulled a G48kt or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 okx just upgraded to a HWW for SE CT zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 okx just upgraded to a HWW for SE CT zone. Yeah I wonder why just se CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice write up, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah I wonder why just se CT? That is kind of strange. That one county landlocked on 3 sides by advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 okx just upgraded to a HWW for SE CT zone. surprised they didn't issue it tomorrow night, j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah I wonder why just se CT? not sure. they went with one on LI as well...but left out the S / W CT zones. i didn't read the product but saw the headline. maybe better mixing over LI with the sound and then SE CT slightly closer to the llj over SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 May have been, but when threads get merged it defualts to the 1st post created, and that was Kevs. I could just delete his post and that would make it all better. I'm surprised you didn't do it ..you must deete a good 1/4 of all my posts..between you and Dendrite. At any rate...looks like damaging gusts tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah I wonder why just se CT? Sort of like when they added a snow advisory this morning in S Ct after the snow was over and there was 3-5 OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 looks like BOX going with HWW for much of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 I don't see it updated yet on the Box website..Where did you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I don't see it updated yet on the Box website..Where did you see it? few different spots...don't think it includes Tolland county...just windham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 HWW here URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 412 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 CTZ004-MAZ004>007-012>019-026-RIZ001>004-250515- /O.UPG.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.120225T1100Z-120226T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0002.120225T0900Z-120226T0000Z/ WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA- EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BARRE... FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER... MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON... QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...AYER...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK 412 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARDS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS REACHING THEIR STRONGEST VALUES. WIND WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EASILY BLOW ABOUT LIGHTER ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS. THESE STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO KNOCK DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN ALSO MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 few different spots...don't think it includes Tolland county...just windham LOL..that makes sense...their warning/advisory systems have become a comeplete joke..to the point that tv mets won't even use them anymore. So when BDl is ripping gusts to 55+ tomorrow morning and they upgrade to HWW..it'll look like they verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Sort of like when they added a snow advisory this morning in S Ct after the snow was over and there was 3-5 OTG they did that with the Oct storm too-WSWarning was up after it was largely over...they got owned in that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Big wind tmorrow...I love win except not when I'm working bc when th wind is blowing it blows against me and when I be walking that makes it harder to walk so it increases the walking time I hhave to walk to work and tomorrow I have to leave no later than 712 bc I want to be there when I get there to do. What I have to do. Its always very interesting like if a poll falls down what a poop and that would suck...do I have work or not? No I don't if I don't if they dthe on't have power and tha happens a lot when. Thee wind blows and at least in summer wind is warm bc its sumer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Not too impressed with the winds so far...my peak gust in the past couple of hours has been 0.7mph. I guess the real winds will pickup after midnight based on the isobars on the map: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks on par for big winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks on par for big winds. Down here local met said 18 hours of winds 50-60 that has to be the longest duration we've had in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Downgraded to a WA from HWW, PHAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 No downgrade here--I had an advisory the whole time. It is a little breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 BIg bust here...almost nothing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Highest ASOS gusts so far I can find are BOS, MVY, and ORH gusting to 44mph and ACK gusting to 45mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Maybe it's needs a little cooking, but meh on the winds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The atmosphere needs to cook. Getting stronger gusts now, but the winds at 850 are a bit less. Still around 50-55kts or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 We've had some ery strong bursts. My anememoter's siting didn't record them well (it shows a high of 22mph), but listening/watching the trees, I know it as higher. Relatively calm for about the last hour. 31.8/23, sn-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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