POWERSTROKE Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 great job buddy. Site looks good and your forecast for here at Myrtle Beach was dead on. Absolutely beautiful, breezy but great weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Thanks for the plug guys! And now the Euro joins it nearly identical. Back in late April I went with a very active pattern in most of the Southeast thanks to signs of neg. NAO and probably troughing in the Southeast for May. A couple of times ECMWF went with big ridging over the Southeast in its long range but GFS more accurately showed some signs of high lat blocking, which ended up being correct. We did (are) still having a pretty impressive heat dome now, but its brief. The overall flow is very unusual, and double blocking is showing up pretty quickly. This makes about 3 times recently it worked out, each time there was very notable weather, which surely beats the previous few years when most of the Southeast gets under too much ridging and not enough rain. Look how much rain has fallen in May. I know what central to northeast GA is going through, usually that dryness extends more northeast through Upstate SC to my area, but I think Beryl will help out some in the next few days plus the incoming front Tuesday will help with decent convergence, so parts of central and esp. South GA will rack up on rain totals soon. Next few days both major globals show double blocking strongly, which will force a good southerly track to a very impressive storm. It looks like it will develop as it travels through the Southeast, very nice system for early Summer, we don't see this often. I can't remember anything like this recently in this time of year for the Southeast. Hopefully this repetition of high latitude blocking off and on will keep repeating (or show up again) next Winter when we really can use it. I put a full update at my site, in the free section/Public , so if you haven't registered , please do. Occasionally I put in the free section so more can see what I'm doing. keep pattern for winter!!! Ready to get equipment out plowing!! In due time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 keep pattern for winter!!! Ready to get equipment out plowing!! In due time though Thats the luck of timing...too bad we didn't have all these nice big Greenland blocks and western ridging/Southeast troughing during the Winter, but that was always a possibility. Who knew the opposite would last so long last Winter? Anyway, looks like June will start out very active, with some severe likely, and possibly including Tornadoes if GFS is right. It may be "too" suppressed right now , but its basically holding on to the idea, and has good support from GGEM. EMCWF is further north but still would be a moderate event in Southeast, and big even Ohio Valley, MidAtlantic and Northeast. Could be that GFS is over reacting to the big 576 Greenland /West Canada double block....hard to say since we're almost in unchartered waters for early June. Time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Impressive agreement from the 12z GFS ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Thats the luck of timing...too bad we didn't have all these nice big Greenland blocks and western ridging/Southeast troughing during the Winter, but that was always a possibility. Who knew the opposite would last so long last Winter? Anyway, looks like June will start out very active, with some severe likely, and possibly including Tornadoes if GFS is right. It may be "too" suppressed right now , but its basically holding on to the idea, and has good support from GGEM. EMCWF is further north but still would be a moderate event in Southeast, and big even Ohio Valley, MidAtlantic and Northeast. Could be that GFS is over reacting to the big 576 Greenland /West Canada double block....hard to say since we're almost in unchartered waters for early June. Time will tell! Thanks for the update Robert! Nice to see you posting here once and a while. Ya this next week looks like it will be a fun time in weather. Looks like an active pattern setting up for a week or two. Like you said would be nice if we got something like this a couple times this summer then really set in this winter. Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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