GaWx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Well the 00Z Euro looks very interesting. Looks like a closed low forms at the bottom of the trough and just sits and spins over the Appalachians. That would be very very interesting because the 850 temps are at 0 or below under were the low is and all i can think of at this point is a raging snow storm for late April. It has happened in the mountains. A couple years ago we had several inches of snow i think at the end of April. Well needless to say things look very interesting heading into the weekend and the first of next week. The NAO and AO still look to be heading negative which i think is the key to weather we will see any cold air or not. Folks, Amazingly, this 0Z Euro run has an upper level low producing accumulating snow for parts of WNC and ETN that is somewhat similar to the incredible 4/25/1910 accumulating snow mentioned in my prior post. 3/1910 was also a very warm March fwiw. Odds are still low but this run is quite interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Folks, Amazingly, this 0Z Euro run has an upper level low producing accumulating snow for parts of WNC and ETN that is somewhat similar to the incredible 4/25/1910 accumulating snow mentioned in my prior post. 3/1910 was also a very warm March fwiw. Odds are still low but this run is quite interesting to say the least. The Miami Discussion is all over the GFS for next weekend. Bringing a so called strong front through. Pretty much unheard of this time of year. Will see. Probably be a shower by the time the front gets to Miami. The long range models are also showing that a few of the storms could even be strong Saturday night into Sunday morning over the County Warning Area...due to the cold air aloft and the middle to upper level energy moving through the area. So South Florida residents and visitors need to continue to monitor the latest forecast from the Miami National weather office through the week on the possibility of strong storms for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 12z GFS gradually coming around to this morning's EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If 12z through 144 is any indication...Mitchell, Beech or Pisgah may be the place to go this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Advance look for Fall/Winter 2012/2013 still looks below normal. For subscribers to Weatherbell, Joe Bastardi has be presenting some good research on this recently. I will try to post some public access images later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Advance look for Fall/Winter 2012/2013 still looks below normal. For subscribers to Weatherbell, Joe Bastardi has be presenting some good research on this recently. I will try to post some public access images later. Although nothing comes close to guaranteeing cold, a weak El Nino would give the best chance at a really cold winter of all of the ENSO phases based on pretty extensive historic data. A weak El Nino getting established this fall/winter combined with a DJF +PDO, -NAO, and -AO would likely mean jackpot. JB has been noting some cold seasonal model predictions, which I have no choice but to take with a grain. Regardless, I'm hoping for a weak El Nino, which is a distinct possiblity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Folks, Amazingly, this 0Z Euro run has an upper level low producing accumulating snow for parts of WNC and ETN that is somewhat similar to the incredible 4/25/1910 accumulating snow mentioned in my prior post. 3/1910 was also a very warm March fwiw. Odds are still low but this run is quite interesting to say the least. Appalachian snow and unseasonable cold on the way for the SE US next week? Folks, The 12Z Mon. Euro is, once again, a very cold run for this time of year with the 0C 850 line again getting down into S GA (4/23 and 4/24) similar to yesterday's quite cold 12Z run. Per this run, the entire period of next Sun.-Wed (4/22-5) is looking quite chilly for late April. If that's not enough about which to get excited, the model has accumulating snow for WNC and ETN on 4/22-3, very similar to the 0Z Euro's snow! Could we really be facing at least a weak analog of the incredible 4/25/1910 SE US snow and record cold that followed a very warm March of 1910? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Appalachian snow and unseasonable cold on the way for the SE US next week? Folks, The 12Z Mon. Euro is, once again, a very cold run for this time of year with the 0C 850 line again getting down into S GA (4/23 and 4/24) similar to yesterday's quite cold run. Per this run, the entire period of next Sun.-Wed (4/22-5) is looking quite chilly for late April. If that's not enough about which to get excited, the model has accumulating snow for WNC and ETN on 4/22-3, very similar to the 0Z Euro's snow! Could we really be facing at least a weak analog of the incredible 4/25/1910 SE US snow and record cold that followed a very warm March of 1910? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available. A little rain followed by some cooler weather sure would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Folks, Amazingly, this 0Z Euro run has an upper level low producing accumulating snow for parts of WNC and ETN that is somewhat similar to the incredible 4/25/1910 accumulating snow mentioned in my prior post. 3/1910 was also a very warm March fwiw. Odds are still low but this run is quite interesting to say the least. Ya this has been very interesting to say the least. I think it was several years ago. Maybe 6 to 8 years when we had a snow had the end of April. We had rain turning to heavy wet snow, thundersnow if i remember right. Had a couple quick inches and wow everybody was caught off guard. Mt Pisgah had like 20 some inches. The inns workers got stranded up there because they had to close the parkway. Still early but the Euro has been showing this for a day or two and it is not out in fantasy land. The 850 are dang cold to and that trough would just be amazing this time of the year. The Teleconnections still seem to be going toward this being a favorable event with both the NAO and AO going negative and that is unheard of this year. Keeps us up to date Larry and others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Foothills has a great write-up on WxSouth...I have to admit I'm pretty excited as it's a pretty rare event possible. But I'm kind of used to this nice weather, and the suck factor may approach a category 5 for those not wanting cold weather in late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Anyone staying up late for the 0Z Doc? It almost feels like a midwinter party atmosphere when a big winter storm is threatening! The excitement is downright contagious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Anyone staying up late for the 0Z Doc? It almost feels like a midwinter party atmosphere when a big winter storm is threatening! The excitement is downright contagious. I was just thinking the same thing! Heck i was excited last night when i saw this. This would be epic to say the least if this was to verify.I will be up to catch no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro heading the way of the GFS. Stays to low and does not pull in any cold air at all. Might be too much blocking for the low to steer north. Still to early to right anything off but maybe lots of rain for people who need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I truly wish one of these two models would be a leader and not a follower and stay that way until the event gets here. Yesterday it was the GFS following the Euro, now apparently it's the total opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 GSP's take on the weekend from last night: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT 0230 EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF ITS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BOTH MODELS PROGRESS THEIR LOWS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...WITH THE GFS LOW MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST INITIALLY FAVORED THE GFS SOLUTION...AS THE ECMWF WAS NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS UPPER SYSTEM...BUT THEIR DAY 7 SURFACE SYSTEM POSITION RESEMBLES THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST... AND A COLD FRONT IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND CROSSES OUR ARE DURING THE DAY....BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE FRONT OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY...WITH ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING WEST OVER OUR AREA. THAT SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL FORCING...COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE SYSTEM LIFTS NE UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING NW FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN ITS WAKE...IN VERY LOW ECWMF THICKNESS VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH ABNORMAL THICKNESS VALUES...JUST A COLD RAIN WILL BE CARRIED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TO BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY... AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Yep, the Tue Doc runs decided to completely abandon the prior three runs' quite cold for late April as well as the prior two runs with a WNC/ETN Appalachian snowstorm scenario for within the 4/22-5 period and instead gravitate to the Goofy idea. Will 0Z Doc bring it back? I seriously doubt it, but we'll know within 9 hours. Otherwise, NEXT! Well, next may have to wait quite a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well talk about wild swings! Both the GFS and the Euro has the low more north especially the Euro which puts the high terrain of the Appalachian mountains in danger per se of seeing some snow and maybe a lot of it. Still very early and as has been the case we have been going back and fourth on this for the last 5 days or so. The NAO and the AO still looks to go negative. The AO really may take a short plunge during this time frame. Again just one model run but just show the volatility of the models right now. I really do not think we will have a clear grasp on this untill Friday maybe Friday night just because of the cutoff low and the way the jet may behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Appalachian snow and unseasonable cold on the way for the SE US next week? Folks, The 12Z Mon. Euro is, once again, a very cold run for this time of year with the 0C 850 line again getting down into S GA (4/23 and 4/24) similar to yesterday's quite cold 12Z run. Per this run, the entire period of next Sun.-Wed (4/22-5) is looking quite chilly for late April. If that's not enough about which to get excited, the model has accumulating snow for WNC and ETN on 4/22-3, very similar to the 0Z Euro's snow! Could we really be facing at least a weak analog of the incredible 4/25/1910 SE US snow and record cold that followed a very warm March of 1910? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available. Folks, yep, as mentioned by Met1985 and Candy, it's baaaaaack! The 0Z Wed Euro, indeed, brought back the big Appalachian snow for the third time in the last five and the big cold snap for the fourth run of the last six after a two run break. What is the expression, a watched Doc never produces snow? I was fast asleep during its release. Moreover, this run has, by far, the heaviest snowfall of any run to date on 4/23-24. It puts down nearly 2" at GSP and Knoxville, an amazing ~6" at Asheville, and an historic near 12-14" at Johnson City, TN!! Please stay tuned to this BB for more updates as they become available! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tully Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I came to see when we're going to get any severe weather, and ther eis talk about snow in the mountains. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Again this thing has gone the complete opposite way further south then looks like the low reforms in the Northeast. Also looks like it has cut the amount of rain down a lot for the Southeast right now. The latest models almost have the low tracking almost in the gulf. The latest run of NAO and AO have backed off a lot for going negative. There may be a brief time they both go negative then that's it. Should have known not to believe it since this whole flipping winter they have barely been neutral. Also this is just one run again this thing is behaving wildly on the models and even right now i rally will not believe what they are spitting out until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 OK, who stayed up and watched the Doc release lol? Well, no SE snow again, but at least 0Z Euro is bringing back the cold shot to some extent with the 0C 850 line down to Columbus, GA, on 4/23 and Charleston, SC, on 4/24. We'll see. So this makes 5 of the last 8 Euro runs with the SE cold and 3 of last 7 with sig. WNC/ETN accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'd really rather it didn't get cold again. All it will do at this point is kill plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'd really rather it didn't get cold again. All it will do at this point is kill plants. Even if the cold Euro runs were to verify, it wouldn't be cold enough to kill plants. This would be more like lows in the upper 30's to low 40's at the coldest for most nonmountain areas. More like refreshingly chilly rather than damaging cold. I'd love to see it, but have a lot of doubt and am not betting on it since the Euro is still largely on its own. Regardless, the cold 4/25/1910 analog tells me not to dismiss the Euro quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well, I'm content to watch you being content...and enjoy my cad day...but, you knew the pattern would have to flip. It can't be all record heat, all the time And a nice record cold and snow in late April would fit the needed balance nicely! Here's hoping, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well, I'm content to watch you being content...and enjoy my cad day...but, you knew the pattern would have to flip. It can't be all record heat, all the time And a nice record cold and snow in late April would fit the needed balance nicely! Here's hoping, lol. T Folks, Well, the 12Z Thu Doc is another without the accumulating Appalachian snow (now only 3 of the last 8 Euro runs have had snow). However, It still is pretty cold (6 of last 9 Euro runs cold and 2 in a row) with the 0Z 850 line still down to Columbus, GA and continues to be colder than the comparable GFS. So, this is good for helping Tony and other chill lovers be content. However, Lookout, look out and Brick, don't throw a brick at Doc lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well, I'm glad the Doc wants things to be interesting. Checked Meteostar for FFC, and Goofy just puts the 850's at 3, and the temps closer to the ground around 40. Not much apprehension there for the asparagus, peach trees, and berries I've got little shoots on. Got to get some threats for low 30's to get the fear juices going. At least I was smart enough not to put out tomato plants, unlike my local truck farmer who has a bizzillion out. And I can cover my plants if it gets true cold. It's hard to cover a bizzillion tomato plants! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well the Euro makes another big jump on the 23th with the 850 temp at 0 degree all the way down to Northern Alabama, Georgia, and all of North Carolina and Tennessee are below the 850 0 degree line. I still think that there is a possibility for some high elevation Appalachian snow for Monday sometime. Again as i have said there is still a lot of uncertainty with this low. I will not lock onto anything until tomorrow night but this has turned out to be pretty fun tracking and could be a real drought buster. Also thanks Larry for the updated just reiterating what you had said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I'd imagine even folks in the mountains don't want to see snow this time of year. It seems we might be quiet as far as severe weather goes this spring, too, especially compared to last year. We had numerous tornadoes in the country by this time last spring, and have had only a couple of outbreaks so far this spring. I guess we still have a little bit of April and May to go, though, but it seems the weather the last few years has been all or nothing, from one extreme to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 SOI goes below 0(-0.26)today,been two years since the last time(late April 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 SOI goes below 0(-0.26)today,been two years since the last time(late April 2010). Just to clarify, he's talking about the 90 day averaged SOI, which is pretty significant and is a sign of a possible El Nino starting sometime within 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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