Carvers Gap Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 +1 +1 +1 Everyone should at least acknowledge that it is very unlikely that subfreezing temps will hit non-mtn locations again. Frost free dates in the northern valley are in late April/early May. Odds say that sub 32 temps will occur before spring ends in the valleys. Not sure where you are getting your info from....We are due to hit 37 tomorrow night and this is not a true cold spell. Average lows here are in the upper 30s for early April @ KTRI. Had a freeze in 2002 on May 22nd - after setting setting three record highs in April. Sure, it could not go below freezing again...odds are it will go to 32 or below in eastern valley locations. The pattern has changed. We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Frost free dates in the northern valley are in late April/early May. Odds say that sub 32 temps will occur before spring ends in the valleys. Not sure where you are getting your info from....We are due to hit 37 tomorrow night and this is not a true cold spell. Average lows here are in the upper 30s for early April @ KTRI. Had a freeze in 2002 on May 22nd - after setting setting three record highs in April. Sure, it could not go below freezing again...odds are it will go to 32 or below in eastern valley locations. The pattern has changed. We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out... I'm getting my info from my professor who's concentration is in meteorology. But if you want specifics, he was talking about the Charlotte area. So sorry for being so vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I'm getting my info from my professor who's concentration is in meteorology. But if you want specifics, he was talking about the Charlotte area. So sorry for being so vague. No sweat. Probably should have guessed that was a comment for your region. Sorry if my response was a bit over-the-top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 No sweat. Probably should have guessed that was a comment for your region. Sorry if my response was a bit over-the-top. It's cool. I think everyone, like me, on here is bummed like me that we didn't get a classic winter storm. It kills me that we might have to wait till next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 This morning's GFS and (to some extent) the Euro are again beginning to show some blocking around the April 4th time frame. This does not appear to be a false signal. Looks like a significant cool down is on its way. Summer is out. Spring is back. What will be interesting is to see if this becomes the new pattern. The GFS does not want to budge the Eastern trough(centered just off the coast) once it is in place. I'd be interested in what the mets think at this point. Looks to me that this will play havoc w/ agriculture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 We are at +10.1 at KTRI for March. Mother Nature will balance this out... Puny human, you are thinking in much to short a timeframe. Mother Nature is just beginning to balance out the last ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Puny human, you are thinking in much to short a timeframe. Mother Nature is just beginning to balance out the last ice age. Nice. And so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Just not a big fan for low-mid 80's in March or April,that's too warm and there's plenty of 90's on the way for the summer.Take a cooler break anytime you can get it but try to avoid a killing freeze. MJO forecast now to rebound and go strongly into p8. SOI continues to plummet,90 day average down to 4.65.May get below 0 soon if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Looks like from next Wed on through Easter weekend some of us could have to deal with frost/freeze events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Lots of chatter in the weather world of a potential upcoming pattern change now being shown in the 8-10 day range of the Euro and GFS. I am actually surprised to see the Euro beginning to go the way of the GFS in that time frame. Time will tell, but my guess is that NE TN has not seen its last frost. That is betting w/ the odds for sure as we are not frost free until early May at the lower elevations. But March makes it a tougher guess. Looks to me like this week will be the week that the pattern actually, gasp, changes. BTW, it's pretty easy to say it will get cooler as March was KTRI's warmest on record. If anything, the Tri-Cities after this week appears to return to normal or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Lots of chatter in the weather world of a potential upcoming pattern change now being shown in the 8-10 day range of the Euro and GFS. I am actually surprised to see the Euro beginning to go the way of the GFS in that time frame. Time will tell, but my guess is that NE TN has not seen its last frost. That is betting w/ the odds for sure as we are not frost free until early May at the lower elevations. But March makes it a tougher guess. Looks to me like this week will be the week that the pattern actually, gasp, changes. BTW, it's pretty easy to say it will get cooler as March was KTRI's warmest on record. If anything, the Tri-Cities after this week appears to return to normal or below. Ya i agree. I have been posting on another forum about the changes and people think i am crazy and wishcasting but just looking at the NAO it goes negative for a time and may stay around neutral after that. The MJO looks like it is going through phase 8 and through to phase 1 then may go into the cod. The AO looks like it will go positive and stay around neutral but ya for the upper terrain we have not seen our last freezing temps. Anyway dogwood winter is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Very interesting this GFS run. It has painted a stripe of snow along the mountains for around the 11th about 170 hours out. Could be on to something here in the mountains. It has snowed as late as May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Warm April and May....'cool' June July August ? that would be perfect but doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Nasty 12z Euro run - just nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Nasty 12z Euro run - just nasty. What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 The Euro is crazy! All i can say is Wow if this verifies.It looks like this could be a huge blow to the crops and everything that has bloomed early and came out early. Looks like the whole east coast is just on the freezer box for this time of the year. Still early but Wow that would be some cold front coming through. Maybe two to three day cold snap for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Both the Euro and the GFS has next week very cold with possibly some snow in the high mountains but we will see but one thing it is going to get cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Looks like the models have backed off the cold quite a bit. We may have dodged the bullet per se but we have a frost advisory out for my area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I have noticed that the models have wavered back a little more colder solution right now. I think next week really needs to be paid special attention on just how cold and for how long and possibly some snow for higher elevations Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I have noticed that the models have wavered back a little more colder solution right now. I think next week really needs to be paid special attention on just how cold and for how long and possibly some snow for higher elevations Tuesday night. Seems like the cold for tonight wasn't well modelled - forecast models were a bit too warm. Got a feeling next week is going to be chilly. Freezes above 2,000 ft look likely w/ heavy frost in the valleys on at least two nights. What is most interesting is if this pattern reloads after a warm-up. Bit too far out there in order to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Seems like the cold for tonight wasn't well modelled - forecast models were a bit too warm. Got a feeling next week is going to be chilly. Freezes above 2,000 ft look likely w/ heavy frost in the valleys on at least two nights. What is most interesting is if this pattern reloads after a warm-up. Bit too far out there in order to tell. Ya some good points. Seems like early just this week they were just calling for lows for tonight of like 44 degrees for my area and now we may hit 30 tonight sdn i think your right about next week. Could be as many as two to three nights of frost/freeze events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Well like i had thought we did not have to wait till next week to reach freezing. We actually reached a chilly 28 degrees with a heavy frost. Taking a quick glance at the models and to me the GFS seems to have a better hold on things next week than the Euro. The Euro has been wavering everyday and the GFS has been pretty steady about this cold snap and the intensity but with how cold it got this morning i still think that the models are under doing the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Well like i had thought we did not have to wait till next week to reach freezing. We actually reached a chilly 28 degrees with a heavy frost. Taking a quick glance at the models and to me the GFS seems to have a better hold on things next week than the Euro. The Euro has been wavering everyday and the GFS has been pretty steady about this cold snap and the intensity but with how cold it got this morning i still think that the models are under doing the cold. still hoping it dont get that cold here doesent look all that bad but i bet for many in the mountains it will be very chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 still hoping it dont get that cold here doesent look all that bad but i bet for many in the mountains it will be very chilly Ya i think maybe the Northern GA may see some frost but looks like around I-40 will be the key areas across North Carolina. The NWS is calling for a high Tuesday of 50 and a low of 24 degrees already. Euro and GFS still look cold for the middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Well the models look interesting for next weekend in several different ways. First is we could be dealing with a severe weather event next weekend for the SE. Things look ripe with the two air masses colliding along a cold front but i will leave that discussion up to the severe weather gurus here. Secend is the big shot of cold air that we may get with this cold front. Both the Euro and the GFS are advertising this for the end of the weekend, particularly the 22nd and the 23rd. There looks like the same places that just experienced a frost/freeze could endure another cold spell similar to what we just had. Really to early to tell just how cold yet and also the GFS is showing snow breaking out across the mountains of North Carolina Sunday morning. The teleconnections would go right along with this also during this time frame. The NAO looks to go negative during that time frame and also the AO looks to be going negative at the same time which could really send the East into a cold/cool spell. Also the PNA seems to be going positive in that time fram also so that would help to buckle the jet stream and have a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Also the MJO looks like it be crossing the CAD and coming back into phase 8 which would be indicative of a cool spell in the East but i think the key will be the AO and the NAO if they both go negative at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Well the models look interesting for next weekend in several different ways. First is we could be dealing with a severe weather event next weekend for the SE. Things look ripe with the two air masses colliding along a cold front but i will leave that discussion up to the severe weather gurus here. Secend is the big shot of cold air that we may get with this cold front. Both the Euro and the GFS are advertising this for the end of the weekend, particularly the 22nd and the 23rd. There looks like the same places that just experienced a frost/freeze could endure another cold spell similar to what we just had. Really to early to tell just how cold yet and also the GFS is showing snow breaking out across the mountains of North Carolina Sunday morning. The teleconnections would go right along with this also during this time frame. The NAO looks to go negative during that time frame and also the AO looks to be going negative at the same time which could really send the East into a cold/cool spell. Also the PNA seems to be going positive in that time fram also so that would help to buckle the jet stream and have a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Also the MJO looks like it be crossing the CAD and coming back into phase 8 which would be indicative of a cool spell in the East but i think the key will be the AO and the NAO if they both go negative at the same time. Here's the 6z GFS for day 8: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Fwiw, 6Z GFS per MeteoStar has KATL down to 37F on 4/23. That would be pretty impressive for 4/23. However, keep in mind that the 0z Euro is not as cold (at 850 mb) and that the GFS has a cold bias. Edit: The 12Z Goofy isn't as cold...more like low 40's I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Folks, The 12Z Euro, a somewhat warm biased model, is much colder than its 0Z counterpart and is even colder than the 12Z GFS. It has the 0 C 850 mb line all the way down to S AL and S GA on 4/24! The 0Z Euro was down only to +4 to +7C for the same areas. Most likely, the next run will be warmer. Regardless, this makes things that much more interesting for the 4/23-4 period. By the way, 3/1910 was one of the warmest March's at ATL though not as warm as 3/2012. On 4/25/1910, ATL had one of the most remarkable wx events on record, 1.5" of accumulating snow!! I'm not saying that something like that is even a remote possibility this year. What I am saying is that there is a little precedence for a quick but intense cold snap in late April after a very warm March. The latest ATL 32 F on record is from 4/25/1910. So, a quick bout of 30's at KATL shouldn't be dismissed as at least a nontrivial possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Folks, The 12Z Euro, a somewhat warm biased model, is much colder than its 0Z counterpart and is even colder than the 12Z GFS. It has the 0 C 850 mb line all the way down to S AL and S GA on 4/24! The 0Z Euro was down only to +4 to +7C for the same areas. Most likely, the next run will be warmer. Regardless, this makes things that much more interesting for the 4/23-4 period. By the way, 3/1910 was one of the warmest March's at ATL though not as warm as 3/2012. On 4/25/1910, ATL had one of the most remarkable wx events on record, 1.5" of accumulating snow!! I'm not saying that something like that is even a remote possibility this year. What I am saying is that there is a little precedence for a quick but intense cold snap in late April after a very warm March. The latest ATL 32 F on record is from 4/25/1910. So, a quick bout of 30's at KATL shouldn't be dismissed as at least a nontrivial possibility Glad to see this discussed...noticed the same thing. Had to double check to make sure my computer hadn't cached some old maps. It looks that bad. Holding off putting my maters in the ground. Euro has been hinting at this for a few days. Very dry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Well the 00Z Euro looks very interesting. Looks like a closed low forms at the bottom of the trough and just sits and spins over the Appalachians. That would be very very interesting because the 850 temps are at 0 or below under were the low is and all i can think of at this point is a raging snow storm for late April. It has happened in the mountains. A couple years ago we had several inches of snow i think at the end of April. Well needless to say things look very interesting heading into the weekend and the first of next week. The NAO and AO still look to be heading negative which i think is the key to weather we will see any cold air or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.