Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's interesting but I hope we are all just taking it in stride right now. Oh yea but you got to like the trend and its also a much less complicated setup. Just hoping some baby vort max flying out of Toronto guys butt does not screw the pooch at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I wonder how it will screw it up this time. Meteorologically speaking I could see it getting too sheared out and turn into a disorganized 1-3" event with sleet and then the leftover vortmax doesn't produce anything except upslope snow for powderfreak because it tracks north of us. I hope I'm not jinxing it, but I feel like the screw potential in this is a little less overall, but the sheared out look is probably a concern. I'd almost want to get the second storm cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Plus you want the good dynamics to help out coastal areas other wise 0.25" in 6 hrs is probably relegated to the high interior and maybe ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 We'll probably get a few inches, anyway....sticking with my 2-5" potential for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 18z GFS is still warmer than other guidance but it definitely cooled a good amount...it now gives some front end advisory snows (esp pike northward) before the flip. Def a trend toward the EC/GGEM/Ukie. can you get off the euro for a minute and let me know if your coming back to Moneyball baseball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Usually 0.5" in 6hrs maybe even 0.4" is a good sign for strong lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I hope I'm not jinxing it, but I feel like the screw potential in this is a little less overall, but the sheared out look is probably a concern. I'd almost want to get the second storm cranking. Yeah I think the worry would be having the front running stuff get sheared a bit so that by the time the MLs warm, you only get an inch or 2 of junk...and then round 2 never really materializes. Or its disorganized the whole way even if you stay cold enough in the MLs. Its still possible this cranks enough to endup looking like the 12z GFS solutions...but just from a purely synoptic standpoint with the confluence being where it is, you'd like to favor the colder envelope of solutions. There will still be a heck ofa ML push from the southwest, so I do feel like there should be a good slug of precip with all that isentropic glide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Only 96 more hours to screw this up. This futility has gotten to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Usually 0.5" in 6hrs maybe even 0.4" is a good sign for strong lift. In the 700mb RH/omega map I posted the GFS parks the best lift right over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I think the worry would be having the front running stuff get sheared a bit so that by the time the MLs warm, you only get an inch or 2 of junk...and then round 2 never really materializes. Or its disorganized the whole way even if you stay cold enough in the MLs. Its still possible this cranks enough to endup looking like the 12z GFS solutions...but just from a purely synoptic standpoint with the confluence being where it is, you'd like to favor the colder envelope of solutions. There will still be a heck ofa ML push from the southwest, so I do feel like there should be a good slug of precip with all that isentropic glide. Exactly why the screw potential is relatively low here. We have a very good high for once, not only supplying cold, but thatresultant isentropic lift should give us a decent little event, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I think the worry would be having the front running stuff get sheared a bit so that by the time the MLs warm, you only get an inch or 2 of junk...and then round 2 never really materializes. Or its disorganized the whole way even if you stay cold enough in the MLs. Its still possible this cranks enough to endup looking like the 12z GFS solutions...but just from a purely synoptic standpoint with the confluence being where it is, you'd like to favor the colder envelope of solutions. There will still be a heck ofa ML push from the southwest, so I do feel like there should be a good slug of precip with all that isentropic glide. Yeah case and point the other day. We knew the euro was probably to dry with that theta-e push. I didn't think the models were too paltry with the front end stuff, so that's good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Exactly why the screw potential is relatively low here. We have a very good high for once, not only supplying cold, but thatresultant isentropic lift should give us a decent little event, anyway. Yeah you want good temp gradients in SWFEs to produce the better results as the lift is usually more intense when you are running a 60-70 knot LLJ into a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Exactly why the screw potential is relatively low here. We have a very good high for once, not only supplying cold, but thatresultant isentropic lift should give us a decent little event, anyway. Exacty. Have a good high and fun can happen. Don't forget highs enhance fronto genesis and therefore precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 We'll probably get a few inches, anyway....sticking with my 2-5" potential for now. Good call. I remember '07-08 and that was the generic range for SWFE. Potential to bust low or high. I'd stick with that for now and temper enthusiasm somewhat. Congrats! And thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I wonder how it will screw it up this time. Meteorologically speaking I could see it getting too sheared out and turn into a disorganized 1-3" event with sleet and then the leftover vortmax doesn't produce anything except upslope snow for powderfreak because it tracks north of us. That scenario has my vote right now, as most likely to screw us. But this looks pretty good to me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 That scenario has my vote right now, as most likely to screw us. But this looks pretty good to me right now Yeah I was going to say the vortmax leftover is too weak and fails to produce anything at all...but I figured it wouldbe even worse if we missed out on good potential and then have to have powderfreak tell us all how good the event is less than a week after they get 4 feet of upslope snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I was going to say the vortmax leftover is too weak and fails to produce anything at all...but I figured it wouldbe even worse if we missed out on good potential and then have to have powderfreak tell us all how good the event is less than a week after they get 4 feet of upslope snow. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I think the worry would be having the front running stuff get sheared a bit so that by the time the MLs warm, you only get an inch or 2 of junk...and then round 2 never really materializes. Or its disorganized the whole way even if you stay cold enough in the MLs. Its still possible this cranks enough to endup looking like the 12z GFS solutions...but just from a purely synoptic standpoint with the confluence being where it is, you'd like to favor the colder envelope of solutions. There will still be a heck ofa ML push from the southwest, so I do feel like there should be a good slug of precip with all that isentropic glide. You can see the impulse over the NE Pacific on water vapor loops. Pretty impressive jet streak diving SSE up there. I tell what would be an impressive thing is if that comes in more intense than the assimilation sounding. I don't think the Canadian part of this is going anywhere, so if a strong entity comes in to the South, it would be pretty dramatic later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GEFS also trended toward Euro and company...overall I think today's trends were very nice. Hopefully we can hold serve or better until tomorrow night when it starts to really become a serious threat if it is still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GEFS also trended toward Euro and company...overall I think today's trends were very nice. Hopefully we can hold serve or better until tomorrow night when it starts to really become a serious threat if it is still looking good. It's a very serious threat now..It's not like we see one model showing it..Every model has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 t's a very serious threat now..It's not like we see one model showing it..Every model has it Well I think there is no doubt that a storm of some kind impacts the northeast...but the question is whether its a significant snow event or not...we could still get mostly rain or maybe it turns into a sheared mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well I think there is no doubt that a storm of some kind impacts the northeast...but the question is whether its a significant snow event or not...we could still get mostly rain or maybe it turns into a sheared mess. Whats the best potential Will, whats the best we can get out of a system, or systems like this? It'd be nice to fire up the snow blower even once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 GEFS also trended toward Euro and company...overall I think today's trends were very nice. Hopefully we can hold serve or better until tomorrow night when it starts to really become a serious threat if it is still looking good. You first started this last week...(or was it longer than that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Whats the best potential Will, whats the best we can get out of a system, or systems like this? It'd be nice to fire up the snow blower even once this winter. Ask Scooter what the worst case would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's a very serious threat now..It's not like we see one model showing it..Every model has it At 96+ hrs out, nothing is really serious in terms of snow. Just be glad a storm is modeled and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 You first started this last week...(or was it longer than that?) This has been the most consistent modeled storm all winter. Pretty remarkable actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 This has been the most consistent modeled storm all winter. Pretty remarkable actually. You guys keyed in on this so long ago...amazing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 At 96+ hrs out, nothing is really serious in terms of snow. Just be glad a storm is modeled and go from there. 96 hours is time to start honing in on final solutions..We are in the Euro's wheelhouse now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 HE had on his Norweigen snowflake sweater..and this bonnet like hat with a pom pom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Whats the best potential Will, whats the best we can get out of a system, or systems like this? It'd be nice to fire up the snow blower even once this winter. Well if everything breaks right, I suppose a Euro type solution last night that gave a solid 10-15" to a large chunk of the region....but that is if everything goes right which is very unlikely. But while its not exactly saying a whole lot, this has a chance to be the biggest event of the winter (sans October)...but lets wat and see if its still viable at this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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