CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It got shoved a little SE because of that tiny little leading piece of vorticity. It still gives BOS like 0.40" qpf from round 2. But it didn't quite have the qpf bomb that 00z did on that. By a miracle a somehow guessed the password to the energycast site lol. I see whats going in now. I still think the risk for this is not to cut west but might be a sheared out mess....either overhead or south of us. It's both good and bad for obvious reasons. At this point 2" is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Sounds like a man that has been defeated. Man up..get pumped. shotgun a couple brews, play Pantera, Nobody is yet but interest is there. Lets get this to look like that in 24-36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Is that 3/3-3/4 system still there by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Nobody is yet but interest is there. Lets get this to look like that in 24-36 hrs. Down to 102 hours left in the period, another nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Uhh it's precarious. The way to another futility episode would be if it gets suppressed too much probably. Hope that doesn't happen, but just saying.... Cha- fing ching!!!!...Think we're starting to lock in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Down to 102 hours left in the period, another nice run. Yep another 8 more runs to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like round 1 is 3-5" and round 2 is 3-5" as well. Man, if only. Also, timing is sweet for a daytime event verbatim. Round 1 weds afternoon, round 2 thurs afternoon-night. But of course it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Kind of liking the ensemble right now for union CT on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro ensembles are almost identical to 00z which is just a whisker more amped than the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro ensembles are almost identical to 00z which is just a whisker more amped than the OP runs. A little spread but it's still kind of organized for 114 hrs or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Canaduan ensemble was a little warm but shared the euro idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Kind of liking the ensemble right now for union CT on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Anyone with qpf...does the Euro still give most of SNE 12-15 inches from the dual events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Anyone with qpf...does the Euro still give most of SNE 12-15 inches from the dual events? No, round two is not as robust as the 00z run...its probably 6-10" combined. Maybe a spot higher amount....but the qpf is pretty irrelevant at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 No, round two is not as robust as the 00z run...its probably 6-10" combined. Maybe a spot higher amount....but the qpf is pretty irrelevant at this point. Is there a chance this could turn into a significant icing event for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 In NYC. Euro ftw...lock it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Is there a chance this could turn into a significant icing event for some? It could end up with some decent icing if MLs trend a bit warmer...but its not like we're talking Dec '08 or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Is there a chance this could turn into a significant icing event for some? It's on the table as an option, sure... There are 3 scenarios with this, barring nothing happening at all ( haha). Assuming we avoid the seasonal persistence of "nothing" (isn't the persistence of nothing, something in its self? fascinating...). Anyway, those would be: 1) couple waves of low pressure get ejected out of the deep layer vortex ball over the GL... They snow light to moderate across a 24 hour period; then as what is ever left of the shredded main trough comes through, it may spin up a bit of coastal.. In this scenario, we'd be talking mainly snow with some ice/PL where the transition is. 2) the high/CAD from the N is shallower; this would provide your icing scenario as it would allow more warm push in critical thickness levels just off the deck. Even in this, the latter period(s) would trend more white as the core of trough remnant pass through. 3) the high/CAD are too strong in which case only light snow occurs NE of ALB-PVD and with some moderate intervals down by your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 By the way...the last few cycles of the NAM is better for relaying into the ECM than the GFS solution aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GEFS is a toaster bath but as Tip would say the other globals have a "wintry appeal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GEFS is a toaster bath but as Tip would say the other globals have a "wintry appeal" Well the last time the GFS/GEFS were against all the other models at 108h out it did't work out so well for them (2/19 non-phasing storm)....so I guess we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well the last time the GFS/GEFS were against all the other models at 108h out it did't work out so well for them (2/19 non-phasing storm)....so I guess we have that going for us. Indeed. I actually think this has some decent potential especially with a back side inverted trough kind of deal to keep the snow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 By the way...the last few cycles of the NAM is better for relaying into the ECM than the GFS solution aloft. Yep its the handleing of the 50/50 low. EC GGEM UKMET slower more amplified hence stronger high. GFS flatter more progressive hence weaker high. NAM clearly favors the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ens look very nice, great CAD on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Wow...EURO is a really nice hit. BTW...good vibes today. I just got home from work and was greeted with an acceptance letter from Suffolk Law. 99.9 percent sure I'm going there. Cue the lawyer jokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Wow...EURO is a really nice hit. BTW...good vibes today. I just got home from work and was greeted with an acceptance letter from Suffolk Law. 99.9 percent sure I'm going there. Cue the lawyer jokes congrats bro, good luck! Why does a lawyer take Viagra?, It makes them taller, the little pricks.Feeling this one for some reason, GGEM AND EURO looking similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 congrats bro, good luck! Thanks! Now let's just keep the good vibes and positivity going through late week. Haha...good one. What's a lawyer's best form of contraception? His personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Frank should post here instead of reading anonomously..this disco he basically lifted from the board lol WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WINTERY WEATHER. THE TIMING/DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THERMAL PROFILES/PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE FIRST ROUND APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GGEM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S DEPICTION OF A COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER NOW WITH A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO IRON THINGS OUT...BUT AT THIS POINT LEANING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE COLDER GGEM/ECMWF. WHILE WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT THE GFS/S WARMER SOLUTION...THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS SOMETHING WE REALLY HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THAT WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. AGAIN THOUGH ITS STILL 4 DAYS OUT IN THE FUTURE...SO THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BASICALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Frank should post here instead of reading anonomously..this disco he basically lifted from the board lol WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WINTERY WEATHER. THE TIMING/DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THERMAL PROFILES/PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE FIRST ROUND APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GGEM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S DEPICTION OF A COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLIER NOW WITH A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO IRON THINGS OUT...BUT AT THIS POINT LEANING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE COLDER GGEM/ECMWF. WHILE WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT THE GFS/S WARMER SOLUTION...THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS SOMETHING WE REALLY HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THAT WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. AGAIN THOUGH ITS STILL 4 DAYS OUT IN THE FUTURE...SO THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BASICALLY...WE NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. Frank is one of the good ones there...he's got an account here, but just doesn't post often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Wow...EURO is a really nice hit. BTW...good vibes today. I just got home from work and was greeted with an acceptance letter from Suffolk Law. 99.9 percent sure I'm going there. Cue the lawyer jokes Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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