Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah Tip I mentioned that flow across Canada earlier..how it's more west to east and would probably prevent a cutter. Rex-ish looking like you said. You have to forgive me - I woke up at 11am this morning and started pounding the keyboard ... I am sure that the astute posters have been onto that... But I felt like doing the annotation anyways - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 And I think more importantly the way it buckles north fo the lakes...it shows the ability for confluence much better than the GEFS. Hopefully they have the right idea. More entertainment at this juncture than anything else. I hope it's not the euro bias of digging troughs too much over se Canada. It sometimes loves to do that. But I see what you mean with the buckling aspect. It allows for that trough to dig a little more se and help out with confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 You have to forgive me - I woke up at 11am this morning and started pounding the keyboard ... I am sure that the astute posters have been onto that... But I felt like doing the annotation anyways - Oh no...I didn't mean anything like that..just that I think we are seeing similar things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Sure does - absolutely! It's called transitive relationship. By having that feature there, it causes upstream events in Canada to buckle - kind of like mountain ranges. The land initially deforms by tectonic stress, but then you get several parallel cordilleras in rows - each successive cordillera is transitively related to first in the series; they exist because of the first... That same exact logic applies here. By having a deep trough in there, immediately upstream events deform, and then events upstream from those deform and on and so on. Yeah Tip I mentioned that flow across Canada earlier..how it's more west to east and would probably prevent a cutter. Rex-ish looking like you said. Scooter, is this what you mean? wrt Rex-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 One thing I really like about this ...well, 2 things: First time this season we've seen this sort of thing on the charts. I like uncharted waters because just about ANYTHING has to be better than the completely f* 'ed up road of consistent pitfalls and axle snappers we've come. Staggering persistence that surgically removes snow... I mean, now we're getting wind, rain, thunderstorms, and yes...at least "cold enough" thicknesses, yet this thing about not snowing is getting creepy/eerie. I think though the more important of the two things I like about this is the consistency of the Euro solutions (a notion assisted along by the fore-mentioned stability of Rex and Rex-like configurations). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Scooter, is this what you mean? wrt Rex-ish? Dave - not speaking for Scott, but "Rex-like" refers to just the immediate domain space of the ridging N at same longitude as trough S. This stuff I was discussing about transitive events in the atmosphere is more related to Ginx' point about N Atlantic scenario causing a back-log - so to speak - in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Thanks John (and Scott) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro holds serve at 12z...really impressive CAD on round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Cha- fing ching!!!!...Think we're starting to lock in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Cha- fing ching!!!!...Think we're starting to lock in now Now we're screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Cha- fing ching!!!!...Think we're starting to lock in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's so much colder than the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Isn't that funny ... I mentioned a while ago to Will how the Euro one possible scenario would be to suppress too much ...this Euro run seems like it's trying to go that route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Still has the 2nd round but doesn't quite go as nuts with it maybe an additional 3-6. At this point the worry should be with the initial burst and where it trends as beyond that is more speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ECMWF may miss south. You don't get heavy snow with rising pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ECMWF may miss south. You don't get heavy snow with rising pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Still has the 2nd round but doesn't quite go as nuts with it maybe an additional 3-6. At this point the worry should be with the initial burst and where it trends as beyond that is more speculative. On the phone, but is it really similar? Like I said earlier I'll consider it a win if it holds serve and it sounds like it did. Still lots of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ECMWF may miss south. You don't get heavy snow with rising pressures. Dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Isn't that funny ... I mentioned a while ago to Will how the Euro one possible scenario would be to suppress too much ...this Euro run seems like it's trying to go that route Yeah you don't want it too strung out, but not much we can do. Hopefully the second low would develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well glad I was wrong with the tick north for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I meant south of the north pole. But seriously, it looks like a weakening shunt kind of like 3/9/99 in DC. NH ME may get missed to the south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Dumb Well he has a point. You don't want a strung out crap system but we don't have room to play with. Just might have to deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 On the phone, but is it really similar? Like I said earlier I'll consider it a win if it holds serve and it sounds like it did. Still lots of time left. Its almost identical with round 1...maybe 3 miles north with the sleet line? Its really close. In round 2 it has a slightly little piece of vorticity that runs out ahead of the closed low which limits the development of the 2nd low...its still decent but didn't quite have the bigger qpf. But at this point the details are kind of irrelevant...esp with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Kevin is Amped up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Its almost identical with round 1...maybe 3 miles north with the sleet line? Its really close. In round 2 it has a slightly little piece of vorticity that runs out ahead of the closed low which limits the development of the 2nd low...its still decent but didn't quite have the bigger qpf. But at this point the details are kind of irrelevant...esp with round 2. Cool thanks. I guess we can't really be too excited yet, but at least it kept continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Was the second low in the same spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Was the second low in the same spot? It got shoved a little SE because of that tiny little leading piece of vorticity. It still gives BOS like 0.40" qpf from round 2. But it didn't quite have the qpf bomb that 00z did on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 What a weenie Euro run. Snows for like 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 that didnt take long lol Kevin is Amped up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Cool thanks. I guess we can't really be too excited yet, but at least it kept continuity. Sounds like a man that has been defeated. Man up..get pumped. shotgun a couple brews, play Pantera, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.