Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 In all honesty the euro had the right idea, but the GFS was kind of a compromise. It was definitely to wet across my area, but the euro virtually had no snow for CT. It was not a great moment for the euro, but I still think it's an overall better model. But once again, it's guidance and you have to sort of blend everything together. All I know is I'm sure glad it's the Euro showing the strong high and confluence and snow scenario on Wed.. and not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 All I know is I'm sure glad it's the Euro showing the strong high and confluence and snow scenario on Wed.. and not the GFS Eh, it matters little at this stage. The 12z euro could come north. I could care less what they show 5 days out in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Eh, it matters little at this stage. The 12z euro could come north. I could care less what they show 5 days out in this pattern. Well in this case it's 4 days..It';s a Wed event or Wed into Wed nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well in this case it's 4 days..It';s a Wed event or Wed into Wed nite 4.5 or whatever. My guess is the euro comes north a bit at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GGEM is very Euro-esque...hard to tell perfectly with those awful black and white maps....but it would look like just about all or mostly snow for most of SNE (prob PVD-HFD and northward)...maybe somebrief mixing up to pike...but its a cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah it worked out last time. Thank you - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GGEM is very Euro-esque...hard to tell perfectly with those awful black and white maps....but it would look like just about all or mostly snow for most of SNE (prob PVD-HFD and northward)...maybe somebrief mixing up to pike...but its a cold look. Yeah I saw that. I'll consider it a semi win if the euro holds serve. It seemed a little south of everything, but I'd rather have subtle shifts south at this point, instead of jumps. I wouldn't be shocked if it did come north a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Thank you - Guess you didn't see the next few posts..the GFS PHAILED Jonathon. Miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GGEM is very Euro-esque...hard to tell perfectly with those awful black and white maps....but it would look like just about all or mostly snow for most of SNE (prob PVD-HFD and northward)...maybe somebrief mixing up to pike...but its a cold look. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Guess you didn't see the next few posts..the GFS PHAILED Jonathon. Miserably I don't really agree with that, but if it makes you feel better...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GGEM is very Euro-esque...hard to tell perfectly with those awful black and white maps....but it would look like just about all or mostly snow for most of SNE (prob PVD-HFD and northward)...maybe somebrief mixing up to pike...but its a cold look. Nice..I didn't even look at 00z ..Did that come south? Euro FTW again hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Hopefully the GEFS are wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Part of me wants to side with the euro, simply with that high forcing the low under SNE. Euro is good with that stuff, but it's still cutting it close, especially for areas south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Hopefully the GEFS are wrong too. How have the EC ens been looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GFS and its ensemble mean for the last couple runs have a distinct difference in handling the main trough...it phases more of the escaping northern stream energy into it early on which basically limits the confluence further east. Scott, if you pull up the Euro ensemble 5h spaghetti chart at 108h and then pull of the 12z GEFS spaghetti chart at 96 hours on WSI and then toggle them...look at how ridiculously different they are with heights in Canada....there was a similar difference at 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The high pressure is in a prime spot for our SWFEs that over achieve...still too early to say much since it could change the orientation...but that 1032-1035mb type high in Quebec is classic for a front end thump...if you get lucky, sometimes it can squeeze the whole thing south enough to where there is never a changeover...but the trough is quite deep out west so we'd probably have to try and play it more like the typical 3-8" front enders that dryslot with some sleet and ZR at the end (drizzle for coast). One thing that interval of time has going in favor of colder scenarios is something we haven't really observed at any time this "cold" season to date; that has to do with blocking. There isn't blocking in the text book synoptic layout. However, there is a transient confluence moving east across Canada in tandem and overtop at similar longitude with respect to the quasi-closed low. It is a propagating quasi Rex couplet. An actual Rex is where you have a mid and upper level anticyclone positioned polarward of a cyclone. This type of configuration in its pure/truer form is usually pretty stable and hard to dismantle. Not sure if this latter tendency should lend any determinism to this, but I am also not certain the Euro's blowing this last needle-threader play out has to mean much for this thing up-coming. Because 1), totally different scenario with this next ordeal that does not test the model the same way ...not even close; also 2), the Euro is allowed to lay an egg from time to time. It's longer term verification is still better than the GS for D4; in this particular synoptic evolution, if we get to D4 successfully, that former notion about R-couplets being fairly robust would make the Euro's D5 depiction the best fit. Eventually the confluence wins. This then all squeezes/opens up said quasi closed low and shears it east - a lot more in the way of BL resistance this time, also a direct result of that confluence, and its resulting +PP anomaly nosing an impressive CAD down into NYS-NE (above right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 One thing that interval of time has going in favor of colder scenarios is something we haven't really observed at any time this "cold" season to date; that has to do with blocking. There isn't blocking in the text book synoptic layout. However, there is a transient confluence moving east across Canada in tandem and overtop at similar longitude with respect to the quasi-closed low. It is a propagating quasi Rex couplet. An actual Rex is where you have a mid and upper level anticyclone positioned polarward of a cyclone. This type of configuration in its pure/truer form is usually pretty stable and hard to dismantle. Not sure if this latter tendency should lend any determinism to this, but I am also not certain the Euro's blowing this last needle-threader play out has to mean much for this thing up-coming. Because 1), totally different scenario with this next ordeal that does not test the model the same way ...not even close; also 2), the Euro is allowed to lay an egg from time to time. It's longer term verification is still better than the GS for D4; in this particular synoptic evolution, if we get to D4 successfully, that former notion about R-couplets being fairly robust would make the Euro's D5 depiction the best fit. Eventually the confluence wins. This then all squeezes/opens up said quasi closed low and shears it east - a lot more in the way of BL resistance this time, also a direct result of that confluence, and its resulting +PP anomaly nosing an impressive CAD down into NYS-NE (above right). I posted before, having a massive 962 in the North Atlantic sitting there and spinning helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 One thing that interval of time has going in favor of colder scenarios is something we haven't really observed at any time this "cold" season to date; that has to do with blocking. There isn't blocking in the text book synoptic layout. However, there is a transient confluence moving east across Canada in tandem and overtop at similar longitude with respect to the quasi-closed low. It is a propagating quasi Rex couplet. An actual Rex is where you have a mid and upper level anticyclone positioned polarward of a cyclone. This type of configuration in its pure/truer form is usually pretty stable and hard to dismantle. Not sure if this latter tendency should lend any determinism to this, but I am also not certain the Euro's blowing this last needle-threader play out has to mean much for this thing up-coming. Because 1), totally different scenario with this next ordeal that does not test the model the same way ...not even close; also 2), the Euro is allowed to lay an egg from time to time. It's longer term verification is still better than the GS for D4; in this particular synoptic evolution, if we get to D4 successfully, that former notion about R-couplets being fairly robust would make the Euro's D5 depiction the best fit. Eventually the confluence wins. This then all squeezes/opens up said quasi closed low and shears it east - a lot more in the way of BL resistance this time, also a direct result of that confluence, and its resulting +PP anomaly nosing an impressive CAD down into NYS-NE (above right). Yeah its interesting when I toggled the EC ensemble spaghetti charts vs the GEFS spaghetti charts just now it was was incredible the difference....where the EC succeeds in this quasi blocking mechanism you describe is where the GFS spectacularly fails...and most of its ensembles. GGEM sided with the Euro and its quite apparent up in the region you pointed out looking at the solutions valid for 18z next Wednesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Let's just hope the Euro doesn't sucker punch us and come north at 12Z. This winter I feel like Greg Brady after he found the Tiki idol on that Hawaii vacation. Please someone lift the curse. LOL I posted before, having a massive 962 in the North Atlantic sitting there and spinning helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 GFS and its ensemble mean for the last couple runs have a distinct difference in handling the main trough...it phases more of the escaping northern stream energy into it early on which basically limits the confluence further east. Scott, if you pull up the Euro ensemble 5h spaghetti chart at 108h and then pull of the 12z GEFS spaghetti chart at 96 hours on WSI and then toggle them...look at how ridiculously different they are with heights in Canada....there was a similar difference at 00z too. Ha, you beat me too it! I was just typing a followup to my annotated chart showing confluence with a post about how the GFS is so flat with the heights ...indicative of almost no ridging couplet --> no confluence, no transient blocking... Yet what is interesting is that it still manages conserve that N stream by taking the S/W core due east after lifting it to the GL. alright - my house is shaking from these wind gusts... woa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ha, you beat me too it! I was just typing a followup to my annotated chart showing confluence with a post about how the GFS is so flat with the heights ...indicative of almost no ridging couplet --> no confluence, no transient blocking... Yet what is interesting is that it still manages conserve that N stream by taking the S/W core due east after lifting it to the GL. alright - my house is shaking from these wind gusts... woa head to the cellar, oh wait, is the noose put away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I posted before, having a massive 962 in the North Atlantic sitting there and spinning helps too. Sure does - absolutely! It's called transitive relationship. By having that feature there, it causes upstream events in Canada to buckle - kind of like mountain ranges. The land initially deforms by tectonic stress, but then you get several parallel cordilleras in rows - each successive cordillera is transitively related to first in the series; they exist because of the first... That same exact logic applies here. By having a deep trough in there, immediately upstream events deform, and then events upstream from those deform and on and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The ggem is beautiful for Wednesday. I can't see preip totals, but looping the maps it snows for 24+ hours N of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah Tip I mentioned that flow across Canada earlier..how it's more west to east and would probably prevent a cutter. Rex-ish looking like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah Will, Euro is definitely further south with that 546 decameter contour. I see that. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The ggem is beautiful for Wednesday. I can't see preip totals, but looping the maps it snows for 24+ hours N of the pike. It actually snows for like 40 hours...because beyond the 120h time frame it snows through 138h. It has that secondary development again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah Will, Euro is definitely further south with that 546 decameter contour. I see that. Interesting. And I think more importantly the way it buckles north fo the lakes...it shows the ability for confluence much better than the GEFS. Hopefully they have the right idea. More entertainment at this juncture than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah its interesting when I toggled the EC ensemble spaghetti charts vs the GEFS spaghetti charts just now it was was incredible the difference....where the EC succeeds in this quasi blocking mechanism you describe is where the GFS spectacularly fails...and most of its ensembles. GGEM sided with the Euro and its quite apparent up in the region you pointed out looking at the solutions valid for 18z next Wednesday.... And ...even with the GFS' paltry comparison up north, it still has some exertion in that it has a warm front having trouble over NJ, with at least some high - albeit much weaker - in the same region of eastern Canada. That GGEM run is also trended more in favor of the Euro - the 00z run was (I think) half way more between the Euro and GFS. But wow - that's a lot of mid level jet energy that needs to get squeezed through there. It's understandable that there is a longer duration characteristic in this.... That could result in a cornucopia of different results ranging from a series of light snow waves ending in more moderate coastal, to an ice storm... Or, gosh forbid suppression and it damps down to one of those deals where SW CT gets 15" of snow while the sun shines in Portsmouth, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It actually snows for like 40 hours...because beyond the 120h time frame it snows through 138h. It has that secondary development again. Seriously starting to think that my flight out of Logan on Thursday is going to get delayed/cancelled. Dammit. This is perfect though. Heavy snow on Wednesday. 70s and golf on Thursday. (Flight status depending) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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