phil882 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What I mean is that we (well at least I ) was worried about this getting shunted more to the ESE with any confluence. Now it's come back north with that low to the northeast, now pushing a bit more to the east and northeast and the Gulf ridge stronger. I know what you mean with little subtle shifts, but the little changes have a big outcome in results. The models have been hinting at this for the last 10 days I believe. Pretty remarkable. Unfortunately, while it's been modeled as a threat, such small changes can have big results in ptype and amounts, so it was hard to get excited far out when those questions needed to be answered. I completely agree, and I think the problem for this event is that we will likely continue see little shifts continue to make a significant impact on the forecast. Unfortunately that likely means that we won't know what is going to occur for sure until the event is right on our doorstep. The shift towards less confluence seems to be the result of the 850 hPa low taking a slightly further north track, which doesn't allow the 850 hPa ridge to build in as effectively beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ugh, way to blow it dude. Trying to keep Ryan focused on his studies. Yes it seems probable there will be school closings and now that you've given him an excuse there'll be no learning. Gee whiz. LOL Senior year in HS= slack city, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 andover....great system Snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 oops....mea culpa! as to the storm tho, i agree with will about the placement of the high. game changer that we have not really had this winter. meso models like the nam may have a better feel for what is setting up. we will see, but for those of us that treat a heavy snowstorm with almost spiritual fervor it is finally something worth following and maybe even....game on! Ugh, way to blow it dude. Trying to keep Ryan focused on his studies. Yes it seems probable there will be school closings and now that you've given him an excuse there'll be no learning. Gee whiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i've read all the posts and i can't tell if it's going to snow or not snow...i am so confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 andover....great system Nice. Ugh, way to blow it dude. Trying to keep Ryan focused on his studies. Yes it seems probable there will be school closings and now that you've given him an excuse there'll be no learning. Gee whiz. It's okay, I made it into college. lol LOL Senior year in HS= slack city, baby. This month is the final stretch. Huge research paper and lots of stuff going on. Once March ends, the year is just about over pretty much. Anyway, back to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 oops....mea culpa! as to the storm tho, i agree with will about the placement of the high. game changer that we have not really had this winter. meso models like the nam may have a better feel for what is setting up. we will see, but for those of us that treat a heavy snowstorm with almost spiritual fervor it is finally something worth following and maybe even....game on! SkiMRG hates snow. He can't understand your logicOnly 2 snow days gor me so far...in October (we got one back)None in my wife's district Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Formatting and spelling on my Nook ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 got that right....but i literally live at the highest point in the town and at least a couple of times i have gotten a sub down at the low point in town, when it was snowing at home but raining at the shop. every foot helps! Snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice. It's okay, I made it into college. lol I think I studied about a total of 10 minutes after I got accepted to Cornell in March of my senior year. You are probably about 70/30 in favor of a snow day I think. The biggest thump of snow may occur before rush hour Thu morning but there's a chance we could be getting like light freezing rain Thu morning as precip lightens and MLs make their furthest push. Then if there is threat of more snow during the day/afternoon they won't want to deal with a potential ugly PM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SkiMRG hates snow. He can't understand your logicOnly 2 snow days gor me so far...in October (we got one back)None in my wife's district If this hits pretty good I'll be at Wawa bright and early Thurs. I'm somewhat conflicted about this as I'm getting used to golfing at least twice a week this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If this hits pretty good I'll be at Wawa bright and early Thurs. I'm somewhat conflicted about this as I'm getting used to golfing at least twice a week this month. Missed ya today. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 got that right....but i literally live at the highest point in the town and at least a couple of times i have gotten a sub down at the low point in town, when it was snowing at home but raining at the shop. every foot helps! Yeah, Andover does have some decent el changes. And you are probably better than Wilmington, where it never snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think I studied about a total of 10 minutes after I got accepted to Cornell in March of my senior year. You are probably about 70/30 in favor of a snow day I think. The biggest thump of snow may occur before rush hour Thu morning but there's a chance we could be getting like light freezing rain Thu morning as precip lightens and MLs make their furthest push. Then if there is threat of more snow during the day/afternoon they won't want to deal with a potential ugly PM commute. LOL, nice. I may have gotten into Cornell, maybe not, but I'm sticking to a small school in New England or NY that I can get some decent $ for. And yeah, I agree. Anyone who asked I told them 50/50, because I didn't want to get hopes up, but I think the odds slightly favor it, especially if part 2 ends up decent like the nam wants to do which could cause issues at some point even if the AM commute is ok. Looks like Wednesday's thump is 21z/00z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 If this hits pretty good I'll be at Wawa bright and early Thurs. I'm somewhat conflicted about this as I'm getting used to golfing at least twice a week this month. If there is no work I will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Missed ya today. Good times. End of the quarter work issues this morning and my wife had a docs appt she didn't tell me about until yesterday. I'm usually good to go with a days notice too, but tough at quarter end (our co yr end is funky, May 31) I'm in Tampa next week, but after that pick a day. Monday is usually the worst day for me (forecast calls etc) but early in the quarter is usually ok. Mid week best. Let's try for one more day mid March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 now, now....let's not wake you know who.... Yeah, Andover does have some decent el changes. And you are probably better than Wilmington, where it never snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Isothermal Tip blue snow inbound Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah, Andover does have some decent el changes. And you are probably better than Wilmington, where it never snows. Can't be talking MA right, must be talking NH??...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What are folks expecting for the Newton area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL Senior year in HS= slack city, baby. Now is a good time to develop good study habits. Once you're a freshman in college there will be so many distractions. First off, there are the freshman olympics and then beer ( sometimes the other way around). Start slacking now and you'll be a slacker for life living in a van down by the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well it's going to be an interesting ride the next 36 hours. I'm expecting to see the guidance come together this evening and overnight. I'll be surprised if we still have the solution camps particularly for event one. Euro is most right, most of the time and the NCEP guidance has had the precip too far north very often this winter. But that doesn't mean it isn't right this time. Should be an interesting set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hey congrats weatherMA. Nice job. Start drinking heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Now is a good time to develop good study habits. Once you're a freshman in college there will be so many distractions. First off, there are the freshman olympics and then beer ( sometimes the other way around). Start slacking now and you'll be a slacker for life living in a van down by the river. Talking from experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs warmed a tick on the front end but spread drastically increased in isotherms and the QPF was bumped up a solid amount...not exactly sure how to interpret that, but it likely means there is more front end thump and also certainly more disagreement on how far north the mid-level warmth makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs warmed a tick on the front end but spread drastically increased in isotherms and the QPF was bumped up a solid amount...not exactly sure how to interpret that, but it likely means there is more front end thump and also certainly more disagreement on how far north the mid-level warmth makes it. The high to the north of Maine got stronger on the mean, which means the thermal gradient likely is tightened...that's why the qpf is probably boosted and the uncertainty in temps is also increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hey congrats weatherMA. Nice job. Start drinking heavily. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think times have changed. I don't remember senior hs year a cakewalk but maybe it was. I do remember sneaking out for half a day during an incredible cold and snow stretch during January 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I completely agree, and I think the problem for this event is that we will likely continue see little shifts continue to make a significant impact on the forecast. Unfortunately that likely means that we won't know what is going to occur for sure until the event is right on our doorstep. The shift towards less confluence seems to be the result of the 850 hPa low taking a slightly further north track, which doesn't allow the 850 hPa ridge to build in as effectively beforehand. Yeah it seems we've been at the crux of these little shifts all season..lol. Frustrating to be so close to the line ans a 30-50 mile shift means so much. I've made it a habit not to get excited this winter until about 48 hrs out, but we all know how the trends have gone. However, I agree with what you are saying. If there is one thing, it's been modeled really well overall. Certainly not like the example you pointed out with the previous storm. Maybe one of these days we'll get a nice bowling ball going from UNV to south of MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Now is a good time to develop good study habits. Once you're a freshman in college there will be so many distractions. First off, there are the freshman olympics and then beer ( sometimes the other way around). Start slacking now and you'll be a slacker for life living in a van down by the river. I'm a junior in college now lol. Trust me, I know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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