weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 33.75" dude. You forgot the .75". Nope, schools will remain open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All guidance I've seen shows ~1" QPF in my 'hood, so first guess is 8-12" with room to grow. Euro was well below an inch of qpf there...but it trended juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You guys look good for at least 3-6" in the first deal. Probably another 1-3" in the second part as well, but that is very dependent on storm location. Any shift north or south will probably have a big impact. Cool, as long as it snows big somewhere between here and Jay Peak it's a win. I'd like to see more from round 2. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm actually seeing a subtle trend, particularly in the NAM ...to emphasize less "2 system" character to the overall period of time. In fact, the NAM's QPF distribution and timing intervals makes it hard to really say this has a "part 1" and "part 2". Looks more like a longer duration Part 1...that may or may not end with some strengthening NE flow as vestigial mid level impulse finally comes through underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the timing of this looks good to keep schools from closing on either Wed or Thursday. Better hit the books slopes. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 outside of the october event, i would think this does have a good chc of being the biggest event of the season for spots like Hubbdave? is 4" on 1/12 your biggest snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Agree with Will on the Model evolution as colder soundings stronger lift wins out. I think it's time for a good thump then hours of lt snow followed by decent. Feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 outside of the october event, i would think this does have a good chc of being the biggest event of the season for spots like Hubbdave? is 4" on 1/12 your biggest snowfall? My biggest event is 1/12 with 4.2"...we got close on 1/21 with another 4"...I think there is a pretty decent chance of breaking that for ORH to Hubbdave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My biggest event is 1/12 with 4.2"...we got close on 1/21 with another 4"...I think there is a pretty decent chance of breaking that for ORH to Hubbdave. Yeah I think so too. Should be doable barring a major shift here in the final 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Agree with Will on the Model evolution as colder soundings stronger lift wins out. I think it's time for a good thump then hours of lt snow followed by decent. Feeling this one. I wont be shocked if we see the models tick more robust with the SW push in the MLs...but then as we get closer they start to reject the ML warming a bit as it runs into that high pressure. Best case scenario is seeing the omega trend better with the SW push but then combine it with a little more dry air advection from ME that the models could be under estimating...perfect for hours of dynamical/evap cooling. It might not work out, but these are the type of setups that you are most likely to get something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I actually agree with you about front end thump overperforming. It's a possibility and really wouldn't surprise me to see a 3-6 kind of deal from round 1. I do expect ZR/PL from round 1.5 but I'm not very excited about back-end snow down here. Yeah I still think round 1 is going to be the big show..and is going to surprise some of the conservatives I've seen on here today. 4-7 seems very legit..Round 2 is the one I'm just not sure on. We know we'll ice around 30 in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 outside of the october event, i would think this does have a good chc of being the biggest event of the season for spots like Hubbdave? is 4" on 1/12 your biggest snowfall? It has been pathetic. The 1/12 event was my second biggest event. Oct 27 (not the big one) was my third largest I still have a couple of patches of frozen stuff left from January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If Don S is right..this is our last snowfall of the season. he is just MORCHING the first half of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah I still think round 1 is going to be the big show..and is going to surprise some of the conservatives I've seen on here today. 4-7 seems very legit..Round 2 is the one I'm just not sure on. We know we'll ice around 30 in the middle Nice and agree but I am pumping round 2 for some decent. Went skiing today, was amazed at the tree damage on the Pike between exit 8/9. Awesome. Pete says hi! You crack us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If Don S is right..this is our last snowfall of the season. he is just MORCHING the first half of March Guidance suggests possible record breaking warmth in my opinion, two snow opportunities first for hill country, but man its going to burn by day 7-10. Enjoy your snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 If Don S is right..this is our last snowfall of the season. he is just MORCHING the first half of March You might be right. Don S seems to be on fire I think we might get a late surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Guidance suggests possible record breaking warmth in my opinion, two snow opportunities first for hill country, but man its going to burn by day 7-10. Enjoy your snow! Two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well I agree, I wasn't implying a 6-10 front ender or anything...just saying that if decent omega gets into BOS for a few hours, they'd snow pretty easily I think despite a ENE flow. Dry air advection FTW when you have good omega. FTL when omega is putrid. We'll still have to watch how the high trends...a lot of times they can trend better when they are in the position that this one is...and if the storm itself stays robust...then you end up with a larger clash of airmasses than models first indicated. For once we have the high which is always a plus in the snow dept. I'm not too worried about the wetbulb potential for here if its a decent Omega thump. The other thing I wonder is the airmass ahead of it. We really lack a good cold airmass unlike our classic SWFE. It's more manufactured cold from wetbulbing. We don't have the good cold dense air to stay firm like we had back in 2007 and 2008 SWFE. Also the airmass coming from the south will have some big warmth with it, so there should be a decent push northeast. I'm just not so sure models will see the cold and trend colder anymore than I'm already thinking. For instance i know the gfs may be a little warm so in my mind, i made an adjustment already. If it trends colder, it's more of a function of the low getting squashed south from confluence most likely. I still wouldn't rule out a tick south but I don't see why it can't come north a tad. I personally hope it's a little north of the euro. That would be a nice advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Suppression is probably the least of the issues right now. Funny how that changed in 36 hrs. Honestly, most of the changes that have occurred in the last 48 hours have been largely small shifts in the track and intensity of the 500 hPa low. Looking at a d(prog)/dt map of the forecast evolution at 500 hPa, its really quite remarkable to see the amount of consistency that we have seen (especially after the last few systems) from 120 hours in. Most of the changes have been more noticeable for our neck of the woods because we are walking the line on a tight temperature gradient, where 50-100 mile shifts in the surface features will cause major changes in the overall precipitation type and amount in given locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Guidance suggests possible record breaking warmth in my opinion, two snow opportunities first for hill country, but man its going to burn by day 7-10. Enjoy your snow! WOW at the 18z gfs, days 8+ are an all out torch. The coldest high temp is in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Honestly, most of the changes that have occurred in the last 48 hours have been largely small shifts in the track and intensity of the 500 hPa low. Looking at a d(prog)/dt map of the forecast evolution at 500 hPa, its really quite remarkable to see the amount of consistency that we have seen (especially after the last few systems) from 120 hours in. Most of the changes have been more noticeable for our neck of the woods because we are walking the line on a tight temperature gradient, where 50-100 mile shifts in the surface features will cause major changes in the overall precipitation type and amount in given locations. What I mean is that we (well at least I ) was worried about this getting shunted more to the ESE with any confluence. Now it's come back north with that low to the northeast, now pushing a bit more to the east and northeast and the Gulf ridge stronger. I know what you mean with little subtle shifts, but the little changes have a big outcome in results. The models have been hinting at this for the last 10 days I believe. Pretty remarkable. Unfortunately, while it's been modeled as a threat, such small changes can have big results in ptype and amounts, so it was hard to get excited far out when those questions needed to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Unfortunately Ray is likely to win our little $20 (board donation) wager because the rules said 5" had to fall in KGAY by midnight on Wednesday. It may happen, but not by midnight. I dunno if Ray got any measurable with the Friday event. My biggest event is 1/12 with 4.2"...we got close on 1/21 with another 4"...I think there is a pretty decent chance of breaking that for ORH to Hubbdave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 merrimack valley down to orh....no school thursday or at least a longer delay. I teach and I can tell they want to use a snow day. Nope, schools will remain open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just got in and had some time to look over some 18z data but anyone concerned for possibly a narrow area of freezing rain with decent ice accretions possible? I know both 18z NAM/GFS bufkit soundings for northern CT do have a period of freezing rain, NAM longer lasting than GFS but it seems like there could be a narrow zone for a potential ice "storm" EDIT: Nevermind...I swore the NAM/GFS had a longer period of ZR here but that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 merrimack valley down to orh....no school thursday or at least a longer delay. I teach and I can tell they want to use a snow day. I would think so...where do you teach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 WOW at the 18z gfs, days 8+ are an all out torch. The coldest high temp is in the upper 40s. Honestly, by that time we are looking at mid March, and if one of these threats works out and delivers 6", I'm sure many would consider that a bookend on this shtty winter and be more than happy to move on to spring and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 WOW at the 18z gfs, days 8+ are an all out torch. The coldest high temp is in the upper 40s. It's far enough out not to worry yet. Sneaky backdoor cold fronts can always save parts of CNE/SNE from catching fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 andover....great system I would think so...where do you teach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 merrimack valley down to orh....no school thursday or at least a longer delay. I teach and I can tell they want to use a snow day. Ugh, way to blow it dude. Trying to keep Ryan focused on his studies. Yes it seems probable there will be school closings and now that you've given him an excuse there'll be no learning. Gee whiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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