ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well I come back and see the Euro has trended much juicier with the front end...GFS still furthest north but seemed to tick south a touch at 18z. I'm not surprised at the more robust omega showing up now as its tough to get nothing but ugly light precip on a strong system running into a decent area of high pressure...I think the question is now if the models continue to inch north or if even if they do...do they start "seeing" the cold high pressure as we get closer? A lot of times those things happen when we have a 1035 high in Quebec...they'll under estimate the airmass itself a bit until we are closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Will, would that high keep us "safe"? And is suppression totally off the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well I come back and see the Euro has trended much juicier with the front end...GFS still furthest north but seemed to tick south a touch at 18z. I'm not surprised at the more robust omega showing up now as its tough to get nothing but ugly light precip on a strong system running into a decent area of high pressure...I think the question is now if the models continue to inch north or if even if they do...do they start "seeing" the cold high pressure as we get closer? A lot of times those things happen when we have a 1035 high in Quebec...they'll under estimate the airmass itself a bit until we are closer. Kind of my thinking . Hopefully colder wins out for all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Might make the 2-4" line come closer to BOS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nice map Ed. I like 4-5" here for now on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Maybe tack on 1-3" on Thursday if it verifies like the euro and we get a few decent bands moving through. Nam would add on like 3-6+" on Thursday morning and gfs would be too warm for anything on Thursday and we would probably even get some PL/RA problems Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Will, would that high keep us "safe"? And is suppression totally off the table? I've never seen you so desperate for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Suppression is probably the least of the issues right now. Funny how that changed in 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Will, would that high keep us "safe"? And is suppression totally off the table? Yeah I think suppression is pretty much not going to happen at this point if you are talking about the storm basically whiffing us. The high is in a perfect spot to deliver cold to us so I could see the soundings becoming a bit colder as we get within the final 48 hours even if the storm doesn't really trend south itself. I think you'd probably have almost no chance of changing to rain regardless though...if it warmed too much in the MLs, you'd probably be ZR or IP for a time. But the GFS is really the only model that does it...though the others come close to us before collapsing back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Kind of my thinking . Hopefully colder wins out for all.. I actually agree with you about front end thump overperforming. It's a possibility and really wouldn't surprise me to see a 3-6 kind of deal from round 1. I do expect ZR/PL from round 1.5 but I'm not very excited about back-end snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I've never seen you so desperate for a storm. We have all been (well, not PF and MRG) so toyed with since October. This might be it for 2012 We have all seen these go into the crapper in so many ways this wonter. Win one for Bigrombowski! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nice map Ed. I like 4-5" here for now on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Maybe tack on 1-3" on Thursday if it verifies like the euro and we get a few decent bands moving through. Nam would add on like 3-6+" on Thursday morning and gfs would be too warm for anything on Thursday and we would probably even get some PL/RA problems Wednesday night. Thanks Ryan. Yeah, there's definitely room to up these totals if juicier models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Such a balancing act just to get a moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Such a balancing act just to get a moderate event You guys should be fine in terms of temps. Not really much of a question imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah I think suppression is pretty much not going to happen at this point if you are talking about the storm basically whiffing us. The high is in a perfect spot to deliver cold to us so I could see the soundings becoming a bit colder as we get within the final 48 hours even if the storm doesn't really trend south itself. I think you'd probably have almost no chance of changing to rain regardless though...if it warmed too much in the MLs, you'd probably be ZR or IP for a time. But the GFS is really the only model that does it...though the others come close to us before collapsing back SE. I think BOX mentioned they thought the GFS thermal profiles were likely to warm in their morning AFD. I'd imagine they would continue to feel this way. Thinking this should be a solid moderate event here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Even though the flow is like ENE as the front end thump comes in...that is such dry air circulating NE and then ENE in from the gulf of Maine...BOS would probably be fine on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We have all been (well, not PF and MRG) so toyed with since October. This might be it for 2012 We have all seen these go into the crapper in so many ways this wonter. Win one for Bigrombowski! The power of positive thinking and live sacrifices to Ullr FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Still kind of surprised that BOS stations only went 1-3" even for NW areas...but I guess better that then hype it. Plenty of time to increase totals tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The power of positive thinking and live sacrifices to Ullr FTW. 33" of snow for Nov-feb 28 when you average 85+ FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Still kind of surprised that BOS stations only went 1-3" even for NW areas...but I guess better that then hype it. Plenty of time to increase totals tomorrow. I think the timing of this looks good to keep schools from closing on either Wed or Thursday. Better hit the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 33" of snow for Nov-feb 28 when you average 85+ FTL. Awesome skiing day after day FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Even though the flow is like ENE as the front end thump comes in...that is such dry air circulating NE and then ENE in from the gulf of Maine...BOS would probably be fine on that. My concern is the rates. I'm not worried about temps if it's below 1SM or so. Also, I think with a high like that, we'll see some sort of a CF near the city or just east. The NAM and SREFs hinted at that and with the high in that position..I could buy that. I'd like to see the euro maybe even be a hair north and ensure a good WAA thump, despite that causing a change to IP. I just don't see a big thump from the first part of more than 5" or so, especially south of the Pike. I think 2-4 should do it with maybe a spot 5" for the first round and that might be generous for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 HPC's latest take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My concern is the rates. I'm not worried about temps if it's below 1SM or so. Also, I think with a high like that, we'll see some sort of a CF near the city or just east. The NAM and SREFs hinted at that and with the high in that position..I could buy that. I'd like to see the euro maybe even be a hair north and ensure a good WAA thump, despite that causing a change to IP. I just don't see a big thump from the first part of more than 5" or so, especially south of the Pike. I think 2-4 should do it with maybe a spot 5" for the first round and that might be generous for some. Since you are usually right I might as well ask you what you think for here in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All guidance I've seen shows ~1" QPF in my 'hood, so first guess is 8-12" with room to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the timing of this looks good to keep schools from closing on either Wed or Thursday. Better hit the books. I think Thursday will be closed or at least a delay at least esp. if the nam/srefs are right. I'm hoping we pull off the best case scenario and can thump starting at noon Wednesday for a early dismissal/snow day combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 33" of snow for Nov-feb 28 when you average 85+ FTL. 33.75" dude. You forgot the .75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Since you are usually right I might as well ask you what you think for here in GC. You guys look good for at least 3-6" in the first deal. Probably another 1-3" in the second part as well, but that is very dependent on storm location. Any shift north or south will probably have a big impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My concern is the rates. I'm not worried about temps if it's below 1SM or so. Also, I think with a high like that, we'll see some sort of a CF near the city or just east. The NAM and SREFs hinted at that and with the high in that position..I could buy that. I'd like to see the euro maybe even be a hair north and ensure a good WAA thump, despite that causing a change to IP. I just don't see a big thump from the first part of more than 5" or so, especially south of the Pike. I think 2-4 should do it with maybe a spot 5" for the first round and that might be generous for some. Well I agree, I wasn't implying a 6-10 front ender or anything...just saying that if decent omega gets into BOS for a few hours, they'd snow pretty easily I think despite a ENE flow. Dry air advection FTW when you have good omega. FTL when omega is putrid. We'll still have to watch how the high trends...a lot of times they can trend better when they are in the position that this one is...and if the storm itself stays robust...then you end up with a larger clash of airmasses than models first indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think Thursday will be closed or at least a delay at least esp. if the nam/srefs are right. I'm hoping we pull off the best case scenario can thump starting at noon Wednesday for a early dismissal/snow day combo. Nope, schools will remain open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All guidance (with the glaring exception of the Euro) I've seen shows ~1" QPF in my 'hood, so first guess is 8-12" with room to grow. there ... fmop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.