Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's the same stuff. Some mets looking for any way for me to get screwed with each storm. What is wrong with me expecting 4-7 inches of snow..then ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's the same stuff. Some mets looking for any way for me to get screwed with each storm. What is wrong with me expecting 4-7 inches of snow..then ice? I just apply the 50% kevin rule. If you say you are expecting 4-7 then ice...I know that means you are actually thinking 2-5 with sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This would be amazing. The Maine ski areas will do well. I love winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Preliminary map... Good 1st call map Sam, I am hoping you have to bump some of these numbers up in ensuing model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's the same stuff. Some mets looking for any way for me to get screwed with each storm. What is wrong with me expecting 4-7 inches of snow..then ice? I do think these things can over perform and drop 6", but I think 3-5" is a more tempered outlook for this. I think you're in a great spot for CT and wave 1 for sure, but 6"+ will be really hard south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I just apply the 50% kevin rule. If you say you are expecting 4-7 then ice...I know that means you are actually thinking 2-5 with sleet then rain. classic, close to sig worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's the same stuff. Some mets looking for any way for me to get screwed with each storm. What is wrong with me expecting 4-7 inches of snow..then ice? I'm being real right now. I don't see anything more than 5" for you to be honest. I think 2-4 for now will do it, and that might be a little much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I just apply the 50% kevin rule. If you say you are expecting 4-7 then ice...I know that means you are actually thinking 2-5 with sleet then rain. Why would anyone expect any plain rain here based on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If you go all euro, you could make a case of 4-6" or so, but that's all euro and hoping that it does not move north or weaken. The caveat being that the confluence to our northeast and se ridge are modeled weaker and this moves south. If so, than maybe you'll get towards your 4-7" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 36hrs of snow on the 18z GEFS........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Good 1st call map Sam, I am hoping you have to bump some of these numbers up in ensuing model runs Thanks. I think higher totals will really depend on the upper low (round 2). If it doesn't get sheared out and the vort max tracks say through CT, then definitely some 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If you go all euro, you could make a case of 4-6" or so, but that's all euro and hoping that it does not move north or weaken. The caveat being that the confluence to our northeast and se ridge are modeled weaker and this moves south. If so, than maybe you'll get towards your 4-7" range. Which is what I'm doing..Not using any Amerigarbage. If it fails..it fails..but for now you need to be going 100% Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Which is what I'm doing..Not using any Amerigarbage. If it fails..it fails..but for now you need to be going 100% Euro So If the euro moves a bit north and gives you 3-5" and the GFS is about the same as 18z, do you keep going euro? What if it moves north again and is now the worst run, would you then go American? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Why would anyone expect any plain rain here based on the Euro? i don't know. temps mid 30s might do it with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 After reading this...I'm so confused for my area. GFS would be a few inches to rain back to light snow. NAM would be warning snows. EURO would be high end advisory - warning snows. I'm going 2-5" for Wed Night...potential for a couple inches with Thursday's secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It depends if you're talking 4-7 real inches or 4-7 Kevin inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 i don't know. temps mid 30s might do it with light precip. And when would it get to 35-40 interior elevated SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So If the euro moves a bit north and gives you 3-5" and the GFS is about the same as 18z, do you keep going euro? What if it moves north again and is now the worst run, would you then go American? You guys do this to me all the time to try and piss me off..It's fine ..I get it. You guys don't think I'm getting much snow..and will end up mild and rainy. Personally i am expecting 4-7 inches of snow then some ice..and then back to snow. I would never factor any GFS modelling into any final outcome. The NAM i would under 24 hours. I don't think the Euro moved twds the GFS at all.. Neither does BOX Hopefully you guys are right..and then slap swords and troll me some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 the extreme solutions will come SE that's almost guaranteed. Nice event for all of NNE and CNE, who knows yet on CMA etc. But the NAM and GFS are going to be too warm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 24 hrs from now i think you will be under WSW. that high oozing down from maine wednesday is really what makes this setup much different from the rest of the winter. truth be told, this one is the first in a long time to catch my interest this year up here(andover) . After reading this...I'm so confused for my area. GFS would be a few inches to rain back to light snow. NAM would be warning snows. EURO would be high end advisory - warning snows. I'm going 2-5" for Wed Night...potential for a couple inches with Thursday's secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 You guys do this to me all the time to try and piss me off..It's fine ..I get it. You guys don't think I'm getting much snow..and will end up mild and rainy. Personally i am expecting 4-7 inches of snow then some ice..and then back to snow. I would never factor any GFS modelling into any final outcome. The NAM i would under 24 hours. I don't think the Euro moved twds the GFS at all.. Neither does BOX Hopefully you guys are right..and then slap swords and troll me some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 You guys do this to me all the time to try and piss me off..It's fine ..I get it. You guys don't think I'm getting much snow..and will end up mild and rainy. Personally i am expecting 4-7 inches of snow then some ice..and then back to snow. I would never factor any GFS modelling into any final outcome. The NAM i would under 24 hours. I don't think the Euro moved twds the GFS at all.. Neither does BOX Hopefully you guys are right..and then slap swords and troll me some more My argument was the upper end of the range, that's all. Models compromise all the time. There is almost never a case where the solution is 100% Model X vs Model Y. My guess is the euro comes north again tonight. Would probably mean a better front end thump actually, but also a quicker IP transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Noyes seems to have a pretty good idea on things. You'll hear talk about rain mix for many. I see why - temps marginal. But dewpoints 2b in 10s! That means cooling likely away from shore 1hMatt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Reply Retweet Favorite · Open There will be issues with rain/mix holding amounts down South Coast & near to eastern MA shore, esp S.Shore 1hMatt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Reply Retweet Favorite · Open Questions coming in re: expected amounts for NewEng. Large swath of 3"-6" seems quite likely Wed PM/night. Add'l Thu snow TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My argument was the upper end of the range, that's all. Models compromise all the time. There is almost never a case where the solution is 100% Model X vs Model Y. My guess is the euro comes north again tonight. Would probably mean a better front end thump actually, but also a quicker IP transition. Maybe you will have to settle this with an 8 pass joust, But start right out with the 1.5" round lances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We also don't do this to get you mad. Remember when I told you a few weeks ago you wouldn't even see a half inch in that one storm? Just how I see it. I hope you are right because it means for once...once something went right for us this winter. As of now, I'd like if I were HubbDave on north..probably down to Will for now. I'm not implying rain..just the quick thump and then IP possibly, but I don't think 4" is nuts, so I wouldn't get worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We also don't do this to get you mad. Remember when I told you a few weeks ago you wouldn't even see a half inch in that one storm? Just how I see it. I hope you are right because it means for once...once something went right for us this winter. As of now, I'd like if I were HubbDave on north..probably down to Will for now. I'm not implying rain..just the quick thump and then IP possibly, but I don't think 4" is nuts, so I wouldn't get worked up. I'm not..and really our ideas aren't far off. it's just this silly idea of rain and 35-40 that some are throwing around seems a bit odd. But anyway..enough about my area and more about the entire SNE area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm not..and really our ideas aren't far off. it's just this silly idea of rain and 35-40 that some are throwing around seems a bit odd. But anyway..enough about my area and more about the entire SNE area I don't think you'll hit 40F...but you don't glaze at 35F either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think I kinda agree with Kevin on this one wrt model emphasis Probably too high on his snow wish but 3-5" looks good I hope he gets 7" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm not..and really our ideas aren't far off. it's just this silly idea of rain and 35-40 that some are throwing around seems a bit odd. But anyway..enough about my area and more about the entire SNE area Well if models are right, the skies brighten up possibly Thursday. I mean maybe then you have like 34-35F -RASN, but it's not like a washed away deal. At least it looks like an overall widespread snowfall of some sort for many. Obviously some will get more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 1st call. Basically took the middle road for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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