Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 this set up could have good ratios and good snow growth. Right now my first call is 12-18 for the CON area. ALEET ALEET! WOOF WOF! Wow, I'm not quite that gung ho, I'd be cautious going much more than 8-12 even that is pushing it IMO. Been burned too many times this year. But I could see it being possible if we do have good ratios and snow growth. Like you say though 1st call, still time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Was amazing coming south yesterday. Winter wonderland to nothing within about 25-30 miles of Plymouth NH. Good information.....think this will be a good one for you guys. Yeah...I just got home from CON. There is little snow until exit 18. I still have 3" here thanks to the progged 40s failing today...only hit 36F. I love this area for holding the cold and snow...even in craptastic winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'd take the risk of mixing and take the juicier solutions. I'd much rather have 1.0 qpf and get 5" of snow/sleet to zr/ra then to have .4 sheared out qpf all snow with it falling during the daytime. Agreed. I'm willing to chance it I need this storm...lol...sanity depends on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 BOX has a decent write-up that basically says they are about as confident as you can be 48 hours out that there will be a WWA for most/all of the region...and says there is a chance for a WSW...esp. north of the pike. Kevin will like how they factored the gfs into their forecast the least. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WARM THE MID LEVELS. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST MODEL CHANGING MOST LOCATIONS OVER TO RAIN EVEN INTO SOUTHERN NH. WHILE THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...IT SEEMS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. WE PRETTY MUCH BLENDED THE NAM/GGEM/ECMWF TO DERIVE OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS RESULTS IN A THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCING TEMPORARILY NEAR THE MA TURNPIKE LATE WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS JUST OUR BEST SHOT...IT COULD END UP 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 at what layer in the atmosphere? BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 BOX has a decent write-up that basically says they are about as confident as you can be 48 hours out that there will be a WWA for most/all of the region...and says there is a chance for a WSW...esp. north of the pike. Kevin will like how they factored the gfs into their forecast the least. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WARM THE MID LEVELS. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST MODEL CHANGING MOST LOCATIONS OVER TO RAIN EVEN INTO SOUTHERN NH. WHILE THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT...IT SEEMS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. WE PRETTY MUCH BLENDED THE NAM/GGEM/ECMWF TO DERIVE OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS RESULTS IN A THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ADVANCING TEMPORARILY NEAR THE MA TURNPIKE LATE WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS JUST OUR BEST SHOT...IT COULD END UP 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT Any good met discounts the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is looking nice for the nrn areas north of the Pike like the ORH hills into NE MA and up to Dendrite and maybe Dryslot. For now, I like those overall areas. Lots of good signs for decent snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 at what layer in the atmosphere? He's probably referring to when I said NW CT never gets above 32F and took it as everyone away from the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is looking nice for the nrn areas north of the Pike like the ORH hills into NE MA and up to Dendrite and maybe Dryslot. For now, I like those overall areas. Lots of good signs for decent snow there. Agree. Can probably still snag a few/several front end inches though wed pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is looking nice for the nrn areas north of the Pike like the ORH hills into NE MA and up to Dendrite and maybe Dryslot. For now, I like those overall areas. Lots of good signs for decent snow there. What are we looking at for timing up here Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Agree. Can probably still snag a few/several front end inches though wed pm I hope, but don't have confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hope Ray gets 10" or 4.9" 5-9" would not help him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What are we looking at for timing up here Scott? I think the peak of the event occurs right as your flight is about to leave from BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is looking nice for the nrn areas north of the Pike like the ORH hills into NE MA and up to Dendrite and maybe Dryslot. For now, I like those overall areas. Lots of good signs for decent snow there. Including SNH ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is looking nice for the nrn areas north of the Pike like the ORH hills into NE MA and up to Dendrite and maybe Dryslot. For now, I like those overall areas. Lots of good signs for decent snow there. How much for Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 only on some fairly crude soundings. if i get a chc i'll take a look. that's an interesting thought. would seem to be a pretty big difference though. good question. Yeah it got me wondering when I saw how cold the NAM was at 850 only to see on soundings that that was my coldest level at 63hr from the sfc to 600mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Including SNH ? Dendrite is in NH, so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Logan is right on the water. It'd be ripping but the surface would be above freezing most likely. I don't think that's all that relevant. If we get an easterly inflow it will torch the bl many miles inland. This type of system if it pans out as progged tends to give you nice nne drain keeping it as cold at BOS as it is at BED or at least close. when I was complaining to my partner that I was going to miss this one, that is exactly what he said. But you know, for a snowstorm it is all about the "now", not the "then". I will be hard to watch from 8000 miles away. On the other hand I am grateful for what our business gives us so I can't complain too much. Maybe the patter will continue....I'm home for a week on March 10. I think only Jerry truly understands me lol, right fella? Boy do I ever...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 this set up could have good ratios and good snow growth. Right now my first call is 12-18 for the CON area. ALEET ALEET! WOOF WOF! Nice... setting the bar high. I usually take the other approach and go low and hope to be surprised. Right now I'm thinking 3-5" is possible up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Congrats to all and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 From Matt Noyes (via Twitter): "Will get more out on this soon, but essentially at least a 4"-6" snowfall is likely Central/Southern NewEng Wed eve/night" Then... "Beyond Wed PM's 4-6" more snow is likely Thu but exact additional amounts TBD. More explanation on this to come soon." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't think that's all that relevant. If we get an easterly inflow it will torch the bl many miles inland. This type of system if it pans out as progged tends to give you nice nne drain keeping it as cold at BOS as it is at BED or at least close. Yeah if we do get that NNE flow you will be ok at KBOS. As I said, it'll be snowing for sure as the WAA punch stays south of you guys...but the antecedant airmass isn't overly cold, which makes it close right at KBOS I think..could be a 32-33F and ripping situation, which in that case would most certainly accumulate everywhere with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Congrats to all and enjoy Wow. OKX on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nice... setting the bar high. I usually take the other approach and go low and hope to be surprised. Right now I'm thinking 3-5" is possible up here. Yeah, for us set the bar pretty low. It'll take some northward trends to get the lift thats progged for central and southern NH up into our neck of the woods. Just talked with my VTrans cooridinator and we agreed on the middle road right now. 6+" in southern VT zones and 3-6" in the North country. We want to see what the Euro does at 0z and 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS still pretty warm and less juiced. That map from whdh is pretty accurate taking the gfs verbatim for part one only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS still pretty warm and less juiced. That map from whdh is pretty accurate taking the gfs verbatim for part one only. Will there even be a part 2 on the GFS? Look at that warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Will there even be a part 2 on the GFS? Look at that warm push. For CNE/NNE it looks decent but nothing like the nam. Borderline in the route 2 region. Let's hope the nam is more right then the gfs but I doubt it...euro was similar to this gfs depiction as far as moisture but it was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Including SNH ? Yeah I would think you are in a decent spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS gets the line pretty far north and less precip. Almost looks like 3 smaller parcels Funky looking, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is a decent WAA thump, but a disaster otherwise for SNE. It does drop another couple of inches north of the Pike and west near the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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