Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 upton dropped their snow accums inland from 4-6" to almost nothing Yep, two hour period of snow then rain for the duration of the event, looks spot on for the coast down here, but I would think between the rte 15 and I84 corridor could at least get an inch or two, still a long ways out, see if things keep trending north, Scooter said there was room for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Feeling a little more confident although I'm not going all in until I see 90% snow probs at this time tomorrow. lol MAZ003-272100- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENFIELD...LEVERETT...NORTHFIELD... ORANGE...WHATELY 116 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Much better, was reading yesterdays and it was light accum possible,moderate accum, and light possible for each respective period. Definitely heading in the right direction anyways. Also you were able to experience that snowstorm up in Montreal so that's nice but nothing like a good dump at home. when I was complaining to my partner that I was going to miss this one, that is exactly what he said. But you know, for a snowstorm it is all about the "now", not the "then". I will be hard to watch from 8000 miles away. On the other hand I am grateful for what our business gives us so I can't complain too much. Maybe the patter will continue....I'm home for a week on March 10. I think only Jerry truly understands me lol, right fella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 upton dropped their snow accums inland from 4-6" to almost nothing You're not kidding. Here is some reasoning from the new discussion: WEDNESDAY`S EVENT...MODEL GUIDANCE HERE APPEARS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THAT DOES NOT FAVOR SNOW FOR THE OKX CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND WHILE PCPN STARTS AS SNOW...WARM NOSE ALOFT SUGGESTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...KEPT SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS DEW POINTS WHICH RESULTS IN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TAILORED AMOUNTS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 3 INCHES IN ORANGE COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH...BUT WANT TO AVOID FORECAST FLIP-FLOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 At least it's progress seems to stop and head back south and east after it gets toward the MA/NH border. Do you think it's something that's going to continue to creep north with future runs? Wouldn't the artic high kind of help keep it from coming much further or is that just more toward the surface? That's more of an 850mb and lower deal. Eventually heights crash and everyone flips back to some snow, but there's quite a warm punch that gets into C MA around 750-800mb after the initial thump so there will be a zone of some steady sleet north of the 850mb 0C line. I'm not worried about mixing yet in our neck of the woods, but I suppose there's still time for it to trend warmer. I'm content with where the American models are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I can't believe I didn't notice that while typing it. I think most knew what I meant I did notice, But figured someone else would comment...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Trends all day have been awesome for the pike north, killer run for ne mass nh and sw maine! Hopefully things keep trending better and better for that area Yeah as much as it pains me to say it, SnowNH's area is looking real good in this Ray's area too back towards Will. But man the 18z NAM is a weenie run for CNE/NNE... widespread 6-12" with locally higher in SNH, and northern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not sure if it was posted but the EC ens were a little warmer/north of the op. The 0.50" line gets up to about BML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah as much as it pains me to say it, SnowNH's area is looking real good in this Ray's area too back towards Will. But man the 18z NAM is a weenie run for CNE/NNE... widespread 6-12" with locally higher in SNH, and northern MA. Like Scooter has said, the battle is taking place right over sne's head, how quickly things change! Wording from okx is completely different than yesterday, predicting a low of 38 here tom night and high of 46 on Thursday, very warm. This is great news for ski country, hopefully you guys can pile it up for another couple weeks, then enjoy some classis spring skiing well into april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not sure if it was posted but the EC ens were a little warmer/north of the op. The 0.50" line gets up to about BML. good to know. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 upton dropped their snow accums inland from 4-6" to almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's a nice run for NNE, good mid level frontogenesis like Dendrite said. The euro hinted at it too. That's my weenie band that I mentioned yesterday, hoping it would keep the echoes redeveloping overhead. You bastards took it..lol. Anyways for SNE, the NAM and SREFs have a weenie spot over NE MA. Some of it may be CF related, but it's also some enhanced 850 winds perhaps along with isentropic lift. A shortwave does come along to enhance the lift too, by 09z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's more of an 850mb and lower deal. Eventually heights crash and everyone flips back to some snow, but there's quite a warm punch that gets into C MA around 750-800mb after the initial thump so there will be a zone of some steady sleet north of the 850mb 0C line. I'm not worried about mixing yet in our neck of the woods, but I suppose there's still time for it to trend warmer. I'm content with where the American models are right now. Basically right now it puts us in a pretty sweet spot, but if it gets much further north I'll have to worry about a bit of sleet taint. Living on the edge but if that's the case we could be looking at a decent deformation band around here I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's more of an 850mb and lower deal. Eventually heights crash and everyone flips back to some snow, but there's quite a warm punch that gets into C MA around 750-800mb after the initial thump so there will be a zone of some steady sleet north of the 850mb 0C line. I'm not worried about mixing yet in our neck of the woods, but I suppose there's still time for it to trend warmer. I'm content with where the American models are right now. Yeah it looks like all models, UKMET, GGEM, NAM, GFS, no idea on ECM though, get warm air at H85 up to at least the Pike. I'm sure there's probably a sneaky warm layer that goes a bit further north than the H85 layer. You're area should get smoked pretty good over a 36 hour period. I really don't see how you could get less than 6" out of this, and could probably do a foot if it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not sure if it was posted but the EC ens were a little warmer/north of the op. The 0.50" line gets up to about BML. What do you use for the Euro/ens? If you don't mind me asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What I'm wondering....is why OKX had a snowfall map out this morning already. I bet BOX will wait until at least tomorrow midday...maybe tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I did notice, But figured someone else would comment...lol No quote altering needed on that one I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not sure if it was posted but the EC ens were a little warmer/north of the op. The 0.50" line gets up to about BML. Sweet. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 good to know. thanks. It's still fairly cold though. Can you see temps at any levels between 850-700 on the Euro? I wonder if the lower resolution GFS simply isn't able to see the deeper CAD below the warm nose. I'm curious if the northern extent of the 800 or 750 0C are closer between the 2 models versus H85... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ptype issues aside..it seems like most areas away from the coast are never getting above 32 in this. i don't know how much icing can happen in late feb /early March..but should be enough to put a nice glaze on everything before we switch back to snow. i'm really looking forward to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Matt Noyes seems to be gung ho for about half a foot in most of SNE. Bouchard is nada for most of ESNE all of wednesday/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What do you use for the Euro/ens? If you don't mind me asking. We have a private vendor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah it looks like all models, UKMET, GGEM, NAM, GFS, no idea on ECM though, get warm air at H85 up to at least the Pike. I'm sure there's probably a sneaky warm layer that goes a bit further north than the H85 layer. You're area should get smoked pretty good over a 36 hour period. I really don't see how you could get less than 6" out of this, and could probably do a foot if it all works out. this set up could have good ratios and good snow growth. Right now my first call is 12-18 for the CON area. ALEET ALEET! WOOF WOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'd take the risk of mixing and take the juicier solutions. I'd much rather have 1.0 qpf and get 5" of snow/sleet to zr/ra then to have .4 sheared out qpf all snow with it falling during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What I'm wondering....is why OKX had a snowfall map out this morning already. I bet BOX will wait until at least tomorrow midday...maybe tomorrow night. Gray usually waits until they hoist advisories/watches to put one out unless it's not going to need one like tonight's map they put out for the snow showers. Not sure if that's what most offices do or just theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's still fairly cold though. Can you see temps at any levels between 850-700 on the Euro? I wonder if the lower resolution GFS simply isn't able to see the deeper CAD below the warm nose. I'm curious if the northern extent of the 800 or 750 0C are closer between the 2 models versus H85... only on some fairly crude soundings. if i get a chc i'll take a look. that's an interesting thought. would seem to be a pretty big difference though. good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not sure if it was posted but the EC ens were a little warmer/north of the op. The 0.50" line gets up to about BML. Was amazing coming south yesterday. Winter wonderland to nothing within about 25-30 miles of Plymouth NH. Good information.....think this will be a good one for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 this set up could have good ratios and good snow growth. Right now my first call is 12-18 for the CON area. ALEET ALEET! WOOF WOF! Eh. We'll see. There is a relatively warm layer aloft...we'll have to wait and see where the best lift is in the column. I could see the part 2 snows trending toward higher ratios, but it's too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ptype issues aside..it seems like most areas away from the coast are never getting above 32 in this. i don't know how much icing can happen in late feb /early March..but should be enough to put a nice glaze on everything before we switch back to snow. i'm really looking forward to this at what layer in the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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