weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I like how the EC is earlier with that thump on Wednesday....as long as it is robust enough I would like it to be a 1pm to 8pm type of thing. Nam waited until around 21z and so did the gfs I think so Kev can use that to satisfy his snow starting late in the day fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 63 days until mosquito season They will probably be out by like March 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The sref plume feature is pretty cool...for ORH there is a high cluster around 10" which is pretty impressive but its the srefs. There are still a few members less then 4" though. BOS is a a lot more clustered with several members at 10-12" but several more in the 0-2" range. Pretty cool tool though. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/eplumes/index.php?PRM=Total-SNO&NNC=&SID=ORH&INC=ALL&RT=09&max=&min= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 15z SREFs are rolling out now. Looking at 850s. Thru 51h they have cooled from the 9z runs thru 57h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So it's pretty much American vs. Foreign models for round 2. GFS and NAM are much more amplified, with the vort max tracking south of New England. Whereas the foreign models shear it out further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NCEP has no preference up here says everything is comparable. Euro everywhere else in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 15z SREFs are rolling out now. Looking at 850s. Thru 51h they have cooled from the 9z runs thru 57h. By 60h, any gain at 850 is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Srefs look like they get the 0C 850 to the pike or slightly north of it with it getting to the NY/MA/VT border with the surge of WAA aloft at hrs 63-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Always enjoy these forecast .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 at this rate maybe the primary will end up over International Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Always enjoy these forecast .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Wednesday Night...Snow. Heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 80 percent. Thursday...Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. Me too, but it still feels like an eternity until it begins with the way this winter has been What does heavy snow accumulation stand for in numerical terms? Any idea, I'd think like 3-5 or maybe 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nam looks about the same, maybe a hair slower, looks like it continues to delay precip until 21z to 00z from west to east, much slower than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nam looks about the same, maybe a hair slower, looks like it continues to delay precip until 21z to 00z from west to east, much slower than the euro. I thought it looked warmer. But i'll defer to a met. The primary is stronger in the lakes, so the mid levels get torched further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like a good thump of WAA snow for most of CT/RI/MA with a changeover by 0z-6z Thursday south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Wednesday Night...Snow. Heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 80 percent. Thursday...Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. Me too, but it still feels like an eternity until it begins with the way this winter has been What does heavy snow accumulation stand for in numerical terms? Any idea, I'd think like 3-5 or maybe 4-8 My guess is 6+ Might as well throw the AFD in with this, LOL, I like how they toss in a caution flag .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW A SIGNFICANT WAA OVERUNNING SNOW EVENT FOR THE FA WED NIGHT AND THURS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THURS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM A RATHER CLASSIC SETUP OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE N THAT WILL BE NOSING SWD ACROSS MAINE SUPPLING LO LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE ALOFT MID LEVEL WAA AND SIG UVV OCCURS. BOTH BNDRY LYR AND TEMPS ALFT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE QPF TOTALS OF OVER 1 INCH OF WATER EQ. POSSIBLE. ITS RATHER INTERESTING THE UPPER TROF TRIGGERS A COASTAL LOW TO DVLP ALG/OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW FAR N THE HVIER QPF MAKES IT INTO OUR FA. THE FLY IN THE OINMENT...AS THERE IS ALWAYS ONE...IS THE LATEST EURO MODEL IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS THE UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NWD TO BRING GENERAOUS SNOWS TO ALL OF OUR FA. OF NOTE WILL BE TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SINCE THE NNELY LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE ARCTIC HIGHH TO THE N WILL PREVAIL. ALSO WITH THE LOW STAYING TO OUR S ANY WAA OVER XTRM SERN NH WILL BE SHORTLIVED...SO AT THIS POINT ONLY A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SERN NH THURS AFTN. ALSO...IN THESE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EVENTS ITS ALWAYS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR ALL AREAS RECEVING DECENT QPF...THE PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE OCEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Always enjoy these forecast .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Awesome. Where can I take some basic met classes so I can understand what the heck you guys are talking about? Its killing me. I'm trying though. Its like learning a new language. I knew that ivy league piece of paper they gave me was worthless. All I know is that I am a huge . Sorry to bother you all. And a huge thanks. You guys are all fantastic. Way cooler than oral surgery by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Wednesday Night...Snow. Heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 80 percent. Thursday...Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. Me too, but it still feels like an eternity until it begins with the way this winter has been What does heavy snow accumulation stand for in numerical terms? Any idea, I'd think like 3-5 or maybe 4-8 Always enjoy these forecast .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 19. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. love GYX's zone forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I thought it looked warmer. But i'll defer to a met. The primary is stronger in the lakes, so the mid levels get torched further north. Yeah its warmer...looks like mix line briefly gets N of the pike...maybe to route 2 though? Looks like .75+ all snow for N MA pre-changeover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM is pretty for NNE and CNE after 9z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Long duration weenie run here on the Nam, But its the Nam....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I was just going to post their forecast disco as well but you beat me to it. Like they say not sure how far north the moisture reaches into the FA but I suppose this is one situation(I think the first this year) that me being further south might be a plus if indeed the coastal does rob some of the moisture. At any rate it's looking decent at least for those of us further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My guess is 6+ Might as well throw the AFD in with this, LOL, I like how they toss in a caution flag .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW A SIGNFICANT WAA OVERUNNING SNOW EVENT FOR THE FA WED NIGHT AND THURS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THURS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM A RATHER CLASSIC SETUP OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE N THAT WILL BE NOSING SWD ACROSS MAINE SUPPLING LO LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE ALOFT MID LEVEL WAA AND SIG UVV OCCURS. BOTH BNDRY LYR AND TEMPS ALFT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE QPF TOTALS OF OVER 1 INCH OF WATER EQ. POSSIBLE. ITS RATHER INTERESTING THE UPPER TROF TRIGGERS A COASTAL LOW TO DVLP ALG/OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW FAR N THE HVIER QPF MAKES IT INTO OUR FA. THE FLY IN THE OINMENT...AS THERE IS ALWAYS ONE...IS THE LATEST EURO MODEL IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS THE UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NWD TO BRING GENERAOUS SNOWS TO ALL OF OUR FA. OF NOTE WILL BE TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SINCE THE NNELY LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE ARCTIC HIGHH TO THE N WILL PREVAIL. ALSO WITH THE LOW STAYING TO OUR S ANY WAA OVER XTRM SERN NH WILL BE SHORTLIVED...SO AT THIS POINT ONLY A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SERN NH THURS AFTN. ALSO...IN THESE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EVENTS ITS ALWAYS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR ALL AREAS RECEVING DECENT QPF...THE PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE OCEAN. How do you get to the zfp? I only know about the P+C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah its warmer...looks like mix line briefly gets N of the pike...maybe to route 2 though? Looks like .75+ all snow for N MA pre-changeover though. .75"+ for alot of New England, mostly snow for areas north of NW mass to Portsmouth, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM is pretty for NNE and CNE after 9z Thursday. Looks like the 850 line crashes south and its cold enough for snow N of the pike in SNE too? This run verbatim is awesome, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Long duration weenie run here on the Nam, But its the Nam....lol Too bad...looks like a solid 8-12" in the N. Berks, S. greens, and Monads with 6-10" for much of NNE and the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Awesome. Where can I take some basic met classes so I can understand what the heck you guys are talking about? Its killing me. I'm trying though. Its like learning a new language. I knew that ivy league piece of paper they gave me was worthless. All I know is that I am a huge . Sorry to bother you all. And a huge thanks. You guys are all fantastic. Way cooler than oral surgery by far. Well just paying attention here will teach you a lot, It's just a matter of time depending on how much you spend on here. I think LSC in Vermont offers online courses, and maybe someone(ctsnowstorm?) who goes there can PM you some info regarding it as it's a bit OT for this thread. Myself included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My guess is 6+ Might as well throw the AFD in with this, LOL, I like how they toss in a caution flag .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BOTH NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW A SIGNFICANT WAA OVERUNNING SNOW EVENT FOR THE FA WED NIGHT AND THURS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THURS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM A RATHER CLASSIC SETUP OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES TO THE N THAT WILL BE NOSING SWD ACROSS MAINE SUPPLING LO LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE ALOFT MID LEVEL WAA AND SIG UVV OCCURS. BOTH BNDRY LYR AND TEMPS ALFT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE QPF TOTALS OF OVER 1 INCH OF WATER EQ. POSSIBLE. ITS RATHER INTERESTING THE UPPER TROF TRIGGERS A COASTAL LOW TO DVLP ALG/OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THIS WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW FAR N THE HVIER QPF MAKES IT INTO OUR FA. THE FLY IN THE OINMENT...AS THERE IS ALWAYS ONE...IS THE LATEST EURO MODEL IS STILL A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT NOW APPEARS THE UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NWD TO BRING GENERAOUS SNOWS TO ALL OF OUR FA. OF NOTE WILL BE TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SINCE THE NNELY LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE ARCTIC HIGHH TO THE N WILL PREVAIL. ALSO WITH THE LOW STAYING TO OUR S ANY WAA OVER XTRM SERN NH WILL BE SHORTLIVED...SO AT THIS POINT ONLY A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SERN NH THURS AFTN. ALSO...IN THESE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EVENTS ITS ALWAYS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR ALL AREAS RECEVING DECENT QPF...THE PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE OCEAN. Just read that ... they seem pretty much balls to the wall for this. Even the caveat wasn't that ominous. I didn't see the Euro but from what I read it ticked north, so let's keep that going and we'll work on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Socks won't be complaining about a Monadnock screw zone this run. Looks like 14-16" this run for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's some nice frontogenesis across CNE on the NAM around 66hr. -12C in C NH and 0C at the MA/CT border. What a weenie band that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Things look good for a good 2-4 kinda deal down here Wednesday afternoon and evening. I'm not at all enthused about part 2 but I feel good about something from the first thump here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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