Logan11 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I haven't looked at the maps. But if we are comparing the 850 0C line or the 540 line, the GGEM almost always runs north of the other models even with the same surface/upper level scenarios. it's in a completely different arena. if it moves substantially toward the rest of the 12z suite, i think this one is essentially toast - outside of the higher terrain north of the pike and any front end snows that come in wed evening. the ggem would basically have this over and done with in most of SNE by 12z thur, with just some lingering garbage around thur PM. of course, in 11-12 even a couple/few inches is something i suppose. will definitely be interesting to see where the euro goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Scott, hows my flight looking outta Logan at 6 am on Thursday? Well I would think a delay is possible if there is wintry weather. That's about all you can say this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 yeah in the end this whole thing might not be all that different than what we just went through - a few inches (though more widespread i'd think) in SNE with the initial push and then more action focused further N with the "second" piece. just speculating really, but kind of has that feel in these 12z runs so far. This was time frame where models began to converge, no? Maybe even closer the event. I wasn't following too much until 36hrs out. Overall it looks somewhat similar at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 euro charts fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 euro charts fail Yeah sv not loading maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I want the H7 low to pass right over Tip's nape. Yes that would work well, I see the SV site will be no help to me with the 12z Euro, Looks like a bad initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 euro charts fail Yeah sv not loading maps PSU maps at init, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yes that would work well, I see the SV site will be no help to me with the 12z Euro, Looks like a bad initialization Euro is fine for me...looking a bit warmer through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah I could see SNE getting a decent WAA thump then NNE getting some strung out ULL crap that amounts to 2" over 24hrs as the secondary develops too late. That's what I'm worried about. Well that could be, I do like that fact that wave 2 seems to have shifted further north for our area but will have to wait to see if that becomes the trend or its just another model shift as we could see this still go back and forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro is fine for me...looking a bit warmer through 48. Do you use SV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro looks like it's doing what we speculated on...it's a little more north with part 1 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's nice to see the vort when it comes through on the NAM slides just under SNE and it closes off for a short period of time...the GFS doesn't exactly slide it exactly south of SNE but it's only a tad further north than the NAM is but it's not closed off. Both NAM/GFS though do have some solid VV's though so some great lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro is fine for me...looking a bit warmer through 48. That tells me this is going to shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Do you use SV? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going to be a great series of events for ski country. NH school kids on vacation must be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 LOL, euro is actually pretty good for SNE eastern areas. A small vortmax rips out and redevelops a low south fo ACK and enhances QPF at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 No What do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 No lol, I have it out to hr 78 with no graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Basically look at the 00z solution. See how it was suppressed south? Euro takes that and moves it a bit north, but still way south of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Basically look at the 00z solution. See how it was suppressed south? Euro takes that and moves it a bit north, but still way south of GFS. Good, as always all the other guidance will cave towards the Euro with an ultimate compromise somewhere on the Euro side of the aggregate mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's definitely a little north with the H5 vortmax in the Great lakes, so mid level taint makes it into CT and part 2 might not be good down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 LOL, euro is actually pretty good for SNE eastern areas. A small vortmax rips out and redevelops a low south fo ACK and enhances QPF at hr 72. Somehow I get the feeling we could be looking at an eastern MA special here...there are several signals that are pointing to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Basically look at the 00z solution. See how it was suppressed south? Euro takes that and moves it a bit north, but still way south of GFS. in the process of collapsing once again to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Good, as always all the other guidance will cave towards the Euro with an ultimate compromise somewhere on the Euro side of the aggregate mean. Well it might compromise because other features came north on the euro for part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Part 2 is more for NNE, but lighter snows into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's definitely a little north with the H5 vortmax in the Great lakes, so mid level taint makes it into CT and part 2 might not be good down here. Part 1 still look good for here, part 2 sloppy? Basically the gist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 AWT..GFS and Amerigarbage once again bowing down to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Part 2 is more for NNE, but lighter snows into SNE. I was not far off at 0z, So when you said a little north i thought it would be better here plus its was warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NNE has continuous light snows the whole time, in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Well it might compromise because other features came north on the euro for part 1. I think with this system at this range it's going to be more right, IE colder in the sense that all of CNE/NNE does well, probably into SNH/VT and maybe not all that far from Will. I expect little of consequence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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