Help us Obi-One-Marchobi... You're our only hope 3/1 Fantasy

[Tropopause_Fold]

Salad?

[CoastalWx]

For sure ... know what you mean... weak rates kind of suck.

My point was that - even in cases of weak isentropic lift, where you expect a fairly uniform precip shield, what happens more often than not is that precip gets organized into bands aligning with subtleties in the flow and associated VV field.

I'd be getting moderately excited if I was still living in Boston now. Snow-mix-snow? Perhaps a lull waiting for the ULL? 1-3 then some junk then 3-5 seems reasonable but that is pure speculation - if I were in the shoes of an operational met, I'd say something like "odds increasing for a plowable snowfall towards the end of the week along I-90".

A GFS-Euro compromise would actually be pretty good here, if it happened. I guess when I look at everything, I'm not so excited right now for my area for anything greater than 3-4". It doesn't mean I'm ruling it out, I just need to see some more things lined up in our favor. The GFS solution would be awful here as it would be maybe 1-2" followed by sleet and 34F drizzle or rain with maybe a little snow at the end. There are a lot of moving parts and I would like to see a more consolidated look, either from strong WAA on the front side, or the ULL going out underneath us with a developing CCB type deal. I'm afraid I may only see a litte of both, which isn't a great outcome for this area. I'll be happy if the euro increases one or the other.

[ineedsnow]

not bad for day 3

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile GFS trying to keep euro ensemble storm alive.

[Typhoon Tip]

I know the man …personally, although the degree in depth of that personalization is eroded due to the fact that I have not talked to him in a couple years, and the frequency of our correspondences has overall diminished in time.

Anyway, my guess is that he is frustrated. He really almost doesn’t care about convection and summer weather –type events. He’s lukewarm on the tropical season. He is obsessed with winter. The tone over here is much the same. This whole futility thing is really made people that have vested …spiritually (for lack of better word) into the experience of winter DURING winter, are pretty much apoplectic at this point.

Harv’ is a talented Met though. Over the long haul he tends to be right > 50% of the time, both with his individual event calls, and his general instincts regarding patterns at large.

Frankly, the teleconnectors offer vague at best support for any action this week, and overall DEFINITELY offer 0 support for winter weather (although I haven't checked the overnight -it's been persistent the last few days). The PNA is negative and NAO is positive, and AO has gone positive. I can see where he is coming from when balancing this facet with perhaps some apoplexy, combined also with just acknowledging seasonal persistence – regardless of cause, it is what it is and I have never in my life seen so much deconstructive occurrence specifically honing the removal of the existence of snow. It’s really quite remarkable in its self…

Be that as it may, we went through 3 to 4 weeks of –AO/-EPO/+PNA/ and a powerful Phase 7-8-1 MJO translation, and got zippo, zero, nadda, nothing to show for it. So, in that same vein, perhaps we can get a storm out of nothingness, too. This event this week is clearly guided along by local spatial -scaled anomaly relative to the bigger picture, which doesn't offer much support. Perhaps then we are already in spring regardless of the calendar, because spring is the season for that sort of scenario. April 1997 ...really was a shortened wave length no-no that happened anyway. Makes sense, everything in nature is relativity -

[danstorm]

Frankly, the teleconnectors offer vague at best support for any action this week, and overall DEFINITELY offer 0 support for winter weather (although I haven't checked the overnight -it's been persistent the last few days). The PNA is negative and NAO is positive, and AO has gone positive. I can see where he is coming from when balancing this facet with perhaps some apoplexy, combined also with just acknowledging seasonal persistence – regardless of cause, it is what it is and I have never in my life seen so much deconstructive occurrence specifically honing the removal of the existence of snow. It’s really quite remarkable in its self…

You say this at least once a winter ... and in this winter, you've said it a bunch of times!

[danstorm]

I know the man …personally, although the degree in depth of that personalization is eroded due to the fact that I have not talked to him in a couple years, and the frequency of our correspondences has overall diminished in time.

Anyway, my guess is that he is frustrated. He really almost doesn’t care about convection and summer weather –type events. He’s lukewarm on the tropical season. He is obsessed with winter. The tone over here is much the same. This whole futility thing is really made people that have vested …spiritually (for lack of better word) into the experience of winter DURING winter, are pretty much apoplectic at this point.

Harv’ is a talented Met though. Over the long haul he tends to be right > 50% of the time, both with his individual event calls, and his general instincts regarding patterns at large.

Frankly, the teleconnectors offer vague at best support for any action this week, and overall DEFINITELY offer 0 support for winter weather (although I haven't checked the overnight -it's been persistent the last few days). The PNA is negative and NAO is positive, and AO has gone positive. I can see where he is coming from when balancing this facet with perhaps some apoplexy, combined also with just acknowledging seasonal persistence – regardless of cause, it is what it is and I have never in my life seen so much deconstructive occurrence specifically honing the removal of the existence of snow. It’s really quite remarkable in its self…

Be that as it may, we went through 3 to 4 weeks of –AO/-EPO/+PNA/ and a powerful Phase 7-8-1 MJO translation, and got zippo, zero, nadda, nothing to show for it. So, in that same vein, perhaps we can get a storm out of nothingness, too. This event this week is clearly guided along by local spatial -scaled anomaly relative to the bigger picture, which doesn't offer much support. Perhaps then we are already in spring regardless of the calendar, because spring is the season for that sort of scenario. April 1997 ...really was a shortened wave length no-no that happened anyway. Makes sense, everything in nature is relativity -

Goes to show that you can't view the teleconnectors in a vaccuum.

[RobbieL241]

another good CMC loop. SENY/RI/CT get pounded from Part Ihttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z ukie is kind of meh from what i can tell on the crappy plots available.

would be an OK front end thump like the GFS...has the wave further south by 12z thur with more precip over E/SE SNE but it's relatively mild. cooler than the GFS, but 850 0C line looks like it would be near the pike.

[dryslot]

another good CMC loop. SENY/RI/CT get pounded from Part Ihttp://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

And it looks like NNE would benifit from wave 2

[ineedsnow]

round 2 isnt so great mainly the pike north

another good CMC loop. SENY/RI/CT get pounded from Part Ihttp://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

[nzucker]

Looks like another screw-job in the Monadnocks...the front end dump gets too warm and then the coastal is weak from the departing ULL.

[Typhoon Tip]

Goes to show that you can't view the teleconnectors in a vaccuum.

That's certainly true - one should not, no.

Teleconnectors are not a holy grail - no. But over the longer view they do offer a landscape of favored probabilities. The reason they work the majority of time is because mass is conserved, absolutely. If the NAO domain is negative, for example, there will always be compensating sectors - no mass is lost or destroyed in the circulation system et al.

It would be unwise to believe otherwise. Teleconnectors are derived using empirical orthoganal function (EOFs, I'm sure you are aware) mathematics. They have no units. The purpose of them is to describe the character of a domain space. "-NAO" implies mass flux moving away from the NAO domain. If mass moves away, it's coming from someplace else to restore the mass that is lost.

Having described that, yeah ...the -AO/-EPO/+PNA ...robust MJO, were all favoring certain outcomes, but in the balancing of mass fields over all, they do not guarantee that restoring will favor New England. There are ways to counter-balance these domain spaces such that mass is conserved, without going the more typical route(s).

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure when he wrote it (other than today), but, as per Matt Noyes:

This winter it feels really weird (and somewhat dubious) to say this, but this snow potential for late Wednesday into Thursday actually looks pretty decent! The biggest remaining question is where does the greatest snow land? This snowfall estimate is just one of many guidance products, but all seem to agree the best chance is north of the Massachusetts Turnpike, centered on Central New England (Central/Southern NH, Southern ME, Northern MA). At least you know I won't have my feet up this week, LOL. I'll keep ya posted

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looking at the CMC, it seems like that'd benefit New England region wide. Part one delivers heavy snow to CT and then the ULL feature delivers some snow to NNE as well.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tim Kelley:

Sticking to 0 to 15, 0 Nantucket to 15 at WaWaWachusett

lol

[moneypitmike]

Tim Kelley:

Sticking to 0 to 15, 0 Nantucket to 15 at WaWaWachusett

lol

I might need to fire up the snowblower. But, the duration of this may argue for allowing it to continue is winter 2012 rest.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I might need to fire up the snowblower.  But, the duration of this may argue for allowing it to continue is winter 2012 rest.

Maybe the leafblower for long durations

[Damage In Tolland]

How did Tip turn this into his crush on Harvey?

Anyway..the GGEM looks good. Thumps 4-7 ..then we still figureout what wave 2 decides to do

[Tropopause_Fold]

How did Tip turn this into his crush on Harvey?

Anyway..the GGEM looks good. Thumps 4-7 ..then we still figureout what wave 2 decides to do

that's a funny way to say it rains.

[moneypitmike]

Maybe the leafblower for long durations

LOL. Give my mower a final spin before replacing it (that's in the alwn thread).

[CoastalWx]

Not sure when he wrote it (other than today), but, as per Matt Noyes:

This winter it feels really weird (and somewhat dubious) to say this, but this snow potential for late Wednesday into Thursday actually looks pretty decent! The biggest remaining question is where does the greatest snow land? This snowfall estimate is just one of many guidance products, but all seem to agree the best chance is north of the Massachusetts Turnpike, centered on Central New England (Central/Southern NH, Southern ME, Northern MA). At least you know I won't have my feet up this week, LOL. I'll keep ya posted

Yeah even the euro liked those areas for the second part, so I think that is a reasonable guess imo.

[dryslot]

Right now i would say wave 2 ends up north of the pike seeing that where all the guidance seems to be moving

[Damage In Tolland]

Right now i would say wave 2 ends up north of the pike seeing that where all the guidance seems to be moving

I'll be more than happy with 4-7 from round 1 and then a damaging icestorm on top with wave 2. Low level cold will be plentiful with this..just the midelevels we may have to worry about for round 2

[danstorm]

That's certainly true - one should not, no.

Teleconnectors are not a holy grail - no. But over the longer view they do offer a landscape of favored probabilities. The reason they work the majority of time is because mass is conserved, absolutely. If the NAO domain is negative, for example, there will always be compensating sectors - no mass is lost or destroyed in the circulation system et al.

It would be unwise to believe otherwise. Teleconnectors are derived using empirical orthoganal function (EOFs, I'm sure you are aware) mathematics. They have no units. The purpose of them is to describe the character of a domain space. "-NAO" implies mass flux moving away from the NAO domain. If mass moves away, it's coming from someplace else to restore the mass that is lost.

Having described that, yeah ...the -AO/-EPO/+PNA ...robust MJO, were all favoring certain outcomes, but in the balancing of mass fields over all, they do not guarantee that restoring will favor New England. There are ways to counter-balance these domain spaces such that mass is conserved, without going the more typical route(s).

I'm not sure if this is the case - wouldn't the trend of the NAO have implications on mass gain/loss throughout the domain state? It would seem to me that a steady-state -NAO would imply no mass flux.

Regarding the teleconnectors... I don't know that they ever totally aligned... the signs of them may have been in our favor but their magnitudes were nothing epic... and, the +PNA that was modeled at long lead times as we approached mid Feb seemed to dampen out ... resulting in modified cold air and essentially a continuation of the perma-torch. Then again, New England does not take up a large enough area to guarantee anything in terms of sensible weather and/or storminess (as opposed to, say, the East Coast) - sort of like saying the odds of precip on any given day will be x, whereas the odds of precip on any given hour on that day will be considerably less than x ... that's more of a temporal analogy but you get the idea.

[dryslot]

I'll be more than happy with 4-7 from round 1 and then a damaging icestorm on top with wave 2. Low level cold will be plentiful with this..just the midelevels we may have to worry about for round 2

Yeah, I would say its looks good for you with wave 1, I will take the snow, You can have the ice, Thats if this is what ends up being the outcome, In this winter we should probably know when we wake up weds and see what it is doing outside.......

[moneypitmike]

I'll be more than happy with 4-7 from round 1 and then a damaging icestorm on top with wave 2. Low level cold will be plentiful with this..just the midelevels we may have to worry about for round 2

Or--a few inches from Round 1 and little moisture in Round 2 so you don't need to worry about the temp profiles.

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there any way we can avoid the Saturday torch/south gale athon?

[TOOTH]

And it looks like NNE would benifit from wave 2

Any chance this comes north up to Sugarloaf? Im thinking of bailing on work Weds-Thurs. Thanks guys.

[OSUmetstud]

Euro at all trended warmer for WNY...it looks like we're cooked out here. LEK brought up a good point. I think the high is great...but there is almost no snowcover to the north which would help bring low-level cold air farther south. Central and WNY have gotten severe ice storms in February, March, and even April..but I'm not sure if things will work out this time.