Tropopause_Fold Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 nice euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Would be nice if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It looked like there was a little more confluence on this run too. Kind of funny that we have this trend it seems in the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Euro has been pretty consistent...so have the ensembles...they are pretty tightly clustered on the spaghetti charts for 108-120 hours out. But the time that really starts mattering is between now and about 60-72h out. If it maintains that consistency to that point, then we'd probably have something legit on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 06z GFS has a similar evolution, but it is warmer. I would think the pattern argues for more strung out and progressive, but who knows at 5 days out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 06z GFS has a similar evolution, but it is warmer. I would think the pattern argues for more strung out and progressive, but who knows at 5 days out this winter. that euro evolution would be nice. the way it ends up a bit strung out prevents a strong ESE flow. keeps the low levels nice and chilly even out here with good ENE flow. verbatim 2m stay under 40F even out on ACK with 925s like -2 to -4C. and that HP position is great as it would be a constant feed of low level dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Now that is a weenie run, only 108 hours left Scooter. Seriously just looping the 850s is beautiful albeit a fantasy loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 that euro evolution would be nice. the way it ends up a bit strung out prevents a strong ESE flow. keeps the low levels nice and chilly even out here with good ENE flow. verbatim 2m stay under 40F even out on ACK with 925s like -2 to -4C. and that HP position is great as it would be a constant feed of low level dry air. Yeah I don't mind the strung out look to limit low level taint, but you don't want lousy rates either. Eh, can't really nit pick at this stage. Hopefully we can see something, but I'm kind of jaded after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Now that is a weenie run, only 108 hours left Scooter. Seriously just looping the 850s is beautiful albeit a fantasy loop. Yeah it is fun to loop the temp contours because they just get rejected by the high pressure to our north. Hopefully the general synoptic setup stays the same with that high location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I don't mind the strung out look to limit low level taint, but you don't want lousy rates either. Eh, can't really nit pick at this stage. Hopefully we can see something, but I'm kind of jaded after this winter. ha...yeah thought about that too looking at that. could see where you'd get a bit of a split. eh, details. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Hopefully Philly gets the storm. They've had a rough 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 ha...yeah thought about that too looking at that. could see where you'd get a bit of a split. eh, details. lol. It would def be a two part event on the Euro. But at this point, just getting 1 part would be nice enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It would def be a two part event on the Euro. But at this point, just getting 1 part would be nice enough. god yeah. lol. i really still can't believe we are about to turn the calendar to march...i feel like it's still november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 god yeah. lol. i really still can't believe we are about to turn the calendar to march...i feel like it's still november. I know it. Unfortunately, I took a stroll around the yard and apparently it turned the calendar to April already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 god yeah. lol. i really still can't believe we are about to turn the calendar to march...i feel like it's still november. I wish it felt like that here...I had more snow pack days in November than in February this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah it is fun to loop the temp contours because they just get rejected by the high pressure to our north. Hopefully the general synoptic setup stays the same with that high location. The innocuous energy that clips NNE Tuesday passes into the Atlantic and blows up to become an absolute beast, setting up a roadblock, forces what was an escaping high to build back in and allow our cold dry feed to continue. It is great evolution for us to cash in on overrunning energy and also hope a consolidated system will pop. Hey at least we have something to watch heading into Kevins first all spring month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah it is fun to loop the temp contours because they just get rejected by the high pressure to our north. Hopefully the general synoptic setup stays the same with that high location. I know I'm probably shooting myself and asking for trouble saying this, but the general synoptic pattern leading up to this event should be in general a lot more predictable. We won't be dealing with phasing energy (until the last minute if the euro is to be believed) and we aren't really dealing with any southern stream interaction. In addition, the shortwave that is generating this surface cyclone is currently already located near the west coast and is a lot more amplified than the last shortwave that we tracked leading to the bomb going off the east coast generally. The last shortwave literally was a linear strung out piece of vorticity when it rounded the ridge off the west coast of the United States and there was no way any model was going to be able to handle it properly due to its lack of amplification at the time. The models can't resolve waves if the feature they are attempting to identify is barely a wave at all. I'll have a more detailed post out on my blog later today, but I'll highlight why the last storm was so uncertain, and why this upcoming system should have a lot more consistency with the general pattern. Of course being 4-5 days out a lot of mesoscale processes (Cold Air Damming, subtle shifts) will not be properly handled, but I think the consistency of the general synoptic pattern should be a lot more solid this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I know I'm probably shooting myself and asking for trouble saying this, but the general synoptic pattern leading up to this event should be in general a lot more predictable. We won't be dealing with phasing energy (until the last minute if the euro is to be believed) and we aren't really dealing with any southern stream interaction. In addition, the shortwave that is generating this surface cyclone is currently already located near the west coast and is a lot more amplified than the last shortwave that we tracked leading to the bomb going off the east coast generally. The last shortwave literally was a linear strung out piece of vorticity when it rounded the ridge off the west coast of the United States and there was no way any model was going to be able to handle it properly due to its lack of amplification at the time. The models can't resolve waves if the feature they are attempting to identify is barely a wave at all. I'll have a more detailed post out on my blog later today, but I'll highlight why the last storm was so uncertain, and why this upcoming system should have a lot more consistency with the general pattern. Of course being 4-5 days out a lot of mesoscale processes (Cold Air Damming, subtle shifts) will not be properly handled, but I think the consistency of the general synoptic pattern should be a lot more solid this go around. Well this thinking would definitely go along with what I posted about the EC ensemble spaghetti charts....the ensembles were remarkably very tightly clustered at 108-120 hours. More so than you would normally see them when dealing with a major storm system. But yeah your post does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 There is definitely some consistency to the pattern. I mean this threat has been flagged for days. But that long wave pattern can still throw us some curve balls with that deep trough in the west, confluence to our north, and then the euro phasing. I think there will be something in the northeast, question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 There is definitely some consistency to the pattern. I mean this threat has been flagged for days. But that long wave pattern can still throw us some curve balls with that deep trough in the west, confluence to our north, and then the euro phasing. I think there will be something in the northeast, question is where. Given that we are walking a tight rope with this storm...obviously small changes can mean big differences in sensible wx here. So while the storm itself is almost certain to happen (not a single model fails to have a large system going through the northeast/lakes), the nuances in the confluence and stuff would mean big differences in our winter wx prospects. The position of that high has been pretty darn consistent, so that is one big positive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 If I post that I like this storm..I feel I'll jinx it for us..so I'll do what I did yesterday..No snow south of SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 There is definitely some consistency to the pattern. I mean this threat has been flagged for days. But that long wave pattern can still throw us some curve balls with that deep trough in the west, confluence to our north, and then the euro phasing. I think there will be something in the northeast, question is where. Of course there are huge questions still considering we are 4-5 days out... but I don't think we are going to see the same sad show where we get 48-72 hours out and the models still don't have a clue where to place the surface low (like this past system). I think we should lock into a more specific solution much sooner and we should know in the next couple of days if this storm will be a big deal or not when the shortwave moves onshore... not like how it was practically already on our doorstep before the models got a clue and started converging on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Given that we are walking a tight rope with this storm...obviously small changes can mean big differences in sensible wx here. So while the storm itself is almost certain to happen (not a single model fails to have a large system going through the northeast/lakes), the nuances in the confluence and stuff would mean big differences in our winter wx prospects. The position of that high has been pretty darn consistent, so that is one big positive right now. I will say that I'm impressed how consistent this has been. It feels like we have been joking about the March 1st deal for days. Of course it doesn't mean much right now, but in this pattern...it's pretty remarkable how consistent models have been. There are events that are progged days out...maybe this is one of them? I'm 50/50 on whether or not this will be warm and wet, or suppressed and relatively dry. The flow across Canada is westerly, so I don't see a mild cutter for New England in general. It's just a progressive pattern so we'll have to hope this thing can continue to wobble east and under SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Of course there are huge questions still considering we are 4-5 days out... but I don't think we are going to see the same sad show where we get 48-72 hours out and the models still don't have a clue where to place the surface low (like this past system). I think we should lock into a more specific solution much sooner and we should know in the next couple of days if this storm will be a big deal or not when the shortwave moves onshore... not like how it was practically already on our doorstep before the models got a clue and started converging on a solution. Yeah I hear you. I know exactly what you mean. Unfortunately we've had some pretty interesting busts in the 24 hr timeframe this year. I guess that's what happens when you don't have large scale blocking features that are easily modeled like previous winters. Welcome to La Nina and +AO progressive flow I guess...lol. Shortwaves gone wild in the nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah I hear you. I know exactly what you mean. Unfortunately we've had some pretty interesting busts in the 24 hr timeframe this year. I guess that's what happens when you don't have large scale blocking features that are easily modeled like previous winters. Welcome to La Nina and +AO progressive flow I guess...lol. Guys gone wild in my wildest dreams. What does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Scooter is about as jaded as a man can get, feel horrible for him. I mean just picture walking through the streets of Dorchester, seeing a man in a trench coat, shaking his head looking down muttering to himself over and over WTF WTF WTF. When his head rises the look of a defeated man emerges, sunken eyes, pale skin. You have to feel for a person like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Scooter is about as jaded as a man can get, feel horrible for him. I mean just picture walking through the streets of Dorchester, seeing a man in a trench coat, shaking his head looking down muttering to himself over and over WTF WTF WTF. When his head rises the look of a defeated man emerges, sunken eyes, pale skin. You have to feel for a person like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Scooter is about as jaded as a man can get, feel horrible for him. I mean just picture walking through the streets of Dorchester, seeing a man in a trench coat, shaking his head looking down muttering to himself over and over WTF WTF WTF. When his head rises the look of a defeated man emerges, sunken eyes, pale skin. You have to feel for a person like that. The good thing is that we have been talking about this for days and it's still on the table. Phil has a point about the threat being modeled. As far as SNE is concerned, there are several things that we need in our favor. Hopefully we can get a front end thump anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Classic clip. Well we're heading to NYC by late morning....24 hours late thanks to the bug that both my wife and I contracted but thankfully is almost gone now. Starting to feel the 3/1 event. The modeling reminds me of the big March event in 1996. At least we won't be 57 the day before. I'm liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 box seems to thik winter may be back in the cards....the february futility snow records may be falling by the wayside...i kinda hope it all waits til March 1 for bitching rights lol that snow that i saw and walked in down in se ct yesterday was like cement! gross! bring on the deep powder :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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