HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Jeezus, I wish it would be the euro that has this scenario not the Nam YupI am skeptical for MBY...better trend this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Alright, maybe I just interpret things wrong lol. Just looks like a front end dump to a mix here...and it looks like the mix doesn't wait too long to show itself. I believe you though well that could ultimately be the outcome, who knows. but honestly, the NAM has been horrendous outside of a day this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Verbatim the NAM looks like it brushes me with sleet at the height of the event, but it's primarily a snowstorm. It would be a nice 8-12" event for us, but given the NAM's track record, I wouldn't get overly excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM is a good icing event here after a couple inches of snow on either end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 if you believe the euro, for sne, NW CT might be a good spot?...cold and seems to be a nice continual high S-7h RH there...and precip plots sort of like that zone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 YupI am skeptical for MBY...better trend this morning Yeah dave, We will need the trend to continue and start showing up on other guidance in order to curb the skepticism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 SREFs have a pretty nice inflow band that develops for wave 2, especially just north of I-90 and into sw NH. The other thing to watch too, is a mini coastal front that will probably develop. It shows up as an inv looking trough over the eastern MA coast. With a high like that, you'll likely have this feature. Probably will separate winds from 090 to maybe 060 or 050 type deal. It may enhance snow to the west of it by a fair margin and not just right along and nw of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The NAM gives me about a 3 inch shot of snow as the upper low trails through on Thursday - after the main event. The Euro had that feature also. I don't think the NAM is out on it's own with the evolution this time. It's in the ballpark with the other models on the overall handling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z NAM is actually all snow at BOS. it's actually a hair colder in the mid-levels at BOS than it is at ORH even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z NAM is actually all snow at BOS. it's actually a hair colder in the mid-levels at BOS than it is at ORH even. On my phone...which level is in general the warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On my phone...which level is in general the warmest? like near and just above 800 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z NAM is actually all snow at BOS. it's actually a hair colder in the mid-levels at BOS than it is at ORH even. Longitude FTW..LOL. I noticed on the 4KM sector on ewall that is was relatively "cool" at 850. The euro at pretty cold 850 temps up ths way too. I guess it's not surprising with the high nosing in, but it won't mean much if I'm getting 0.15" every 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Longitude FTW..LOL. I noticed on the 4KM sector on ewall that is was relatively "cool" at 850. The euro at pretty cold 850 temps up ths way too. I guess it's not surprising with the high nosing in, but it won't mean much if I'm getting 0.15" every 6 hrs the euro certainly seems like the coldest product right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Longitude FTW..LOL. I noticed on the 4KM sector on ewall that is was relatively "cool" at 850. The euro at pretty cold 850 temps up ths way too. I guess it's not surprising with the high nosing in, but it won't mean much if I'm getting 0.15" every 6 hrs That's unlikely to happen, IMO - what often happens is that the long duration, light intensity look is typically realized as distinct batches of heavier precip with lulls (or something like FZDZ) in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's unlikely to happen, IMO - what often happens is that the long duration, light intensity look is typically realized as distinct batches of heavier precip with lulls (or something like FZDZ) in between. Yeah I know...was sort of being tongue and cheek with that. But, if we do get pretty lousy rates, it's not going to stick well in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Man the GFS loves NNE for part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is still really ugly for SNE. 850 line over the MA/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 And part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Man the GFS loves NNE for part 1. Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Man the GFS loves NNE for part 1. very meh in SNE after an OK front end thump. it's virtually unchanged from 06z. it's considerably weaker and further NE with the surface HP in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 And part 2. Yeah, I don't know why we are looking at it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Blend the GFS & Euro and I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 very meh in SNE after an OK front end thump. it's virtually unchanged from 06z. it's considerably weaker and further NE with the surface HP in canada It's also flatter witht he H5 trough coming through this area. We really need that to be further south for us. The GFS is just so much further north right now. It's practically over you by Thursday morning. The euro has it south of the 40N parallel. Would think maybe a compromise is in order perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah I know...was sort of being tongue and cheek with that. But, if we do get pretty lousy rates, it's not going to stick well in this area. For sure ... know what you mean... weak rates kind of suck. My point was that - even in cases of weak isentropic lift, where you expect a fairly uniform precip shield, what happens more often than not is that precip gets organized into bands aligning with subtleties in the flow and associated VV field. I'd be getting moderately excited if I was still living in Boston now. Snow-mix-snow? Perhaps a lull waiting for the ULL? 1-3 then some junk then 3-5 seems reasonable but that is pure speculation - if I were in the shoes of an operational met, I'd say something like "odds increasing for a plowable snowfall towards the end of the week along I-90". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Man the GFS loves NNE for part 1. Looks like around .75 from CON to LEB for part 1 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Think everyone knows what to toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Think everyone knows what to toss Salad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Salad? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Think everyone knows what to toss There lunch south of here I am not buying it until we see the foreigners onboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Think everyone knows what to toss Actually dont disagree here. I want to see the Euro before thinking anyone in NNE gets a solid snow event from this. The Euro has been relatively steadfast in keeping significance qpf confined to SNE, granted its a slightly southern outlier. How did the Euro Ens look? Sorry been in class all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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