CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Canadian has def been doing that too...and as worthless as it is (esp this time frame), the NAM is starting to do it too. Its almost like they have the initial surge dampen out, and go fr a secondary surge 6 hours later that almost congeals with round 2. There's a lot of energy that is going to be to our west and really won't have enough confluence to get put through a meat grinder enough to dissipate all the good dynamics IMHO....even the pessimistic Euro trended more robust with the vortmax swinging through here eventually. That energy trending a better and holding together is why I think at some point we'll see a trend toward a more dominant period of dynamics at some point here in the next couple days....I could be wrong though. It always seems to happen that way. I was a little happier that the euro came south with the H5 trough for part 2, but imo I think we need to see more of a consolidated look to get these precip rates. Just not impressed at all right now, especially for my locale...but I'm allowing for part two to hopefully develop a little better and try to look more like the SREFs. The strung out look is good for the higher elevations like ORH, but pretty bad for coastal spots. If both systems are disorganized, then it won't be much more than a trash can topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 it appears GYX is implying around a foot up here. Too bad I'll be in Hong Kong....best storm of the winter. They say period of light, then possible period of heavy, then period of moderate. I guess I didn't get the 12" implication that you read. Seems to be a nice little snowy period incoming, though. Even way up here in the north, Rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I will say there might be one interesting thing to watch. As the first part moves out and the second part moves in, there might be one narrow, but constant weenie band formed by peristing mid level frontogenesis. You can kind of see this in the RH fields....basically it wouldn't shock me to have a persistent band of redeveloping echoes somewhere over SNE or CNE during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I guess I didn't get the 12" implication that you read. Seems to be a nice little snowy period incoming, though. Even way up here in the north, Rev. I am still not sold on it for up here, The euro barely scrapes us with any qpf in either situatiuon, GFS would be a decent hit for storm 2, GGEM was ok as well, And the nam is just good for a laugh, We will see what today brings at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I will say there might be one interesting thing to watch. As the first part moves out and the second part moves in, there might be one narrow, but constant weenie band formed by peristing mid level frontogenesis. You can kind of see this in the RH fields....basically it wouldn't shock me to have a persistent band of redeveloping echoes somewhere over SNE or CNE during this time. We're more due than most given the outside looking in for the October system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I guess I didn't get the 12" implication that you read. Seems to be a nice little snowy period incoming, though. Even way up here in the north, Rev. How does this not imply a foot for you? WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. How does this not imply a foot for over here? WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. light I assume is 2 inches. moderate I assume it 4 inches and heavy I assume is 6+ Do the math and weenie out Eric! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We're more due than most given the outside looking in for the October system. I hope guidance changes for our area because I was not impressed, but I wouldn't rule out the second part being a little more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I will say there might be one interesting thing to watch. As the first part moves out and the second part moves in, there might be one narrow, but constant weenie band formed by peristing mid level frontogenesis. You can kind of see this in the RH fields....basically it wouldn't shock me to have a persistent band of redeveloping echoes somewhere over SNE or CNE during this time. dec 19-21 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 How much QPF was the euro showing for YYZ? And did it look cold enough for all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 How much QPF was the euro showing for YYZ? And did it look cold enough for all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 dec 19-21 2008? That was a bit different, but I see what you are saying. It might not even be continuous, just maybe an area that is more prone to steadier light snows, in between systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 How much QPF was the euro showing for YYZ? And did it look cold enough for all snow? Look at Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Look at Wunderground. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Look at Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So it looks like a general 3-6" snowfall for most in southern New England. Biggest storm since October (for those outside of southern CT). Hey will take it. Then wash it away with the next system. The lets play golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 SREFs are warmer, they get the 0C line to near the pike at the height of the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 SREFs are warmer, they get the 0C line to near the pike at the height of the warming. Are the SREF's useful at this range? They've been as erratic as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Are the SREF's useful at this range? They've been as erratic as the NAM. They are ok...though they got pounded in the last event...I actually look at their qpf more than anything in this range rather than thermal profiles...it scores 2nd to the ECMWF for qpf at 72 hours which often surprises many people....SREFs used to score much worse a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Haven't been paying attention, but reading through this page, I still like my 2-5" idea from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Haven't been paying attention, but reading through this page, I still like my 2-5" idea from a few days ago. It's probably a good first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 SREFs kind of have that weenie band I was mentioning, when you loop the 6 hr QPF. It moves everything northeast by Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Models look decent for round 1 back here. Euro and GFS kind of like Scooter's idea of extra QPF to the southwest as the thing gets shunted south of us. I do think we flip over to rain/sleet/freezing rain for a time and maybe back to snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Models look decent for round 1 back here. Euro and GFS kind of like Scooter's idea of extra QPF to the southwest as the thing gets shunted south of us. I do think we flip over to rain/sleet/freezing rain for a time and maybe back to snow??? I don't think we'll ever go to zr /rain..maybe we mix in some sleet or zr dz after the first wave..but this has colder appeal written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't think we'll ever go to zr /rain..maybe we mix in some sleet or zr dz after the first wave..but this has colder appeal written all over it It actually doesn't back here. Like your typical SWFE you'll stay cold in the beginning with a thump of snow... but I do expect down here we all flip over for a period of time with lighter precip rates and some mid level warming. Every model shows it and it seems to make sense. There's some hope that we begin to cool things down as the second low pops to our south but I wouldn't count on it... I think things look better for that northeast of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't think we'll ever go to zr /rain..maybe we mix in some sleet or zr dz after the first wave..but this has colder appeal written all over it What are the time frames for event 1/2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What are the time frames for event 1/2? First one is Wed afternoon..probably mid-late afternoon into Wed nite..then it lightens up and maybe briefly ices up. round 2 may start as ice/sleet and flips quickly over to snow..later Thursday morning into Thursday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Things are trending very nicely, looks like a good event around the pike and north............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Models look decent for round 1 back here. Euro and GFS kind of like Scooter's idea of extra QPF to the southwest as the thing gets shunted south of us. I do think we flip over to rain/sleet/freezing rain for a time and maybe back to snow??? seems so much is going to be dependent on precip intensity too (depending on which set of thermal profiles you want to believe i suppose - as some are just flat out warmer aloft). the euro is plenty cold...if there's decent precip falling. i could see where it goes to light rain or drizzle or freezing drizzle (interior) or whatnot when the precip is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I can't help but look at everything and find things that can go wrong..lol. The anti winter '10-'11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 They are ok...though they got pounded in the last event...I actually look at their qpf more than anything in this range rather than thermal profiles...it scores 2nd to the ECMWF for qpf at 72 hours which often surprises many people....SREFs used to score much worse a few years ago. Didn't follow them last time but figured they may not have faired well. Like you said probably the precip signal is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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