ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'd like to see a 6 hour qpf bomb at some point on the Euro, but at least this run was an improvment over the uglier 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Round 2 is pretty decent for E MA...nothing crazy but like 0.40-0.45 falls for BOS and probably 2/3rds of that is Thu night so you have time of day working. Estimate for BOS... 0.20-0.25" round one Wed PM/Night 0.40-0.45" round two Thu PM/Night ___________ 0.60-0.70" total (mostly snow) Not bad, but really spread out. That's like a low impact 3-6" event over 36-48 hours with lulls in the action. EDIT: Just saw post-hour 93. With the 500 low still in NYS at that point...we get -SN/S continuing until nearly hour 114-120. That's one long duration event(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'd like to see a 6 hour qpf bomb at some point on the Euro, but at least this run was an improvment over the uglier 12z run. Looks like most of SNE 's their way to 5 or 6" between the two events. Round 1 is more of a CT special (though it's awfully close in the BL) while round 2 gives you MA guys more love I guess. It would be nice to just get it consolidated into one main storm, like you said. That's probably too much to ask in '11-'12 though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like most of SNE 's their way to 5 or 6" between the two events. Round 1 is more of a CT special (though it's awfully close in the BL) while round 2 gives you MA guys more love I guess. It would be nice to just get it consolidated into one main storm, like you said. That's probably too much to ask in '11-'12 though lol. My gut still says we might see a more robust period of qpf at some point in a 6 hour period...its not often we get strung out 36 hour events that are mostly light snow but it has happened before I guess. Either way, in this winter I think most would take a long duration high end advisory event...but hopefully we can trend toward something with a little more punch. We still may have to worry about ML temps in this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Who cares about this when you have the day 8 bomb on the ensembles. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The whole thing is still rather disorganized looking and banded. Precip rates are kind of meh and no real good inflow, CCB, or WCB with this. Pretty good screw potential. I hope we see these rates increase a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Part 2 does seem like it has a chance to become a little more organized, now that the H5 low tries to go underneath, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Overall, I think most would agree that we need to see a more consolidated batch of precip from either number 1 or 2, otherwise the whole thing will look like you just took a number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Overall, I think most would agree that we need to see a more consolidated batch of precip from either number 1 or 2, otherwise the whole thing will look like you just took a number 2. Sounds like you've got a sh*tty outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sounds like you've got a sh*tty outlook. This whole winter has been a sloppy number 2..lol. There is a good chance most of us see some snow, but it's still rather disorganized to me. I'm just not impressed by anything right now, but we have time to try and improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This whole winter has been a sloppy number 2..lol. There is a good chance most of us see some snow, but it's still rather disorganized to me. I'm just not impressed by anything right now, but we have time to try and improve. Eh, it's what you make of it. Just coming down off a major powder high. I've enjoyed this Winter despite the relative snow drought. The 006z GFS looks like it snow for 30 hrs here, is that an inverted trough sig I'm seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Eh, it's what you make of it. Just coming down off a major powder high. I've enjoyed this Winter despite the relative snow drought. The 006z GFS looks like it snow for 30 hrs here, is that an inverted trough sig I'm seeing? Yeah it's pretty good for you. Dumps right at the tail end. Euro had a similar look for you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah it's pretty good for you. Dumps right at the tail end. Euro had a similar look for you as well. The rich get richer.lol If it does in fact dump I'll get more pics for you. I know how much you and the Rev.Kev like them. Box seems fairly certain we're going to see some snow here. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday: Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I would blame my bad juju for this, except... ...everyone has had bad juju since October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nice overnight trends on the models. I think round 1 is the one that is going to drop much of the snow. I like a general 3-6 with round 1..maybe less farther north..and then we'll see what round 2 does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I would blame my bad juju for this, except... ...everyone has had bad juju since October I blame Socks. Box's AFD this AM certainly doesn't strike me as pessimistic. Works for me. REMARKABLY...THE SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS FROM THE CMC...NAM...GFS... AND ECMWF WERE ALL EXTRAORDINARILY SIMILAR. WHILE ONE CANNOT TAKE THE MAGNITUDES VERBATIM...THE TREND SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM SNOWFALLS OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN IN NW AND N CENTRAL MA AND SW NH AND MUCH LESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE HARTFORD AREA EAST TO PLYMOUTH MA AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOSTON. AGAIN...STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL. BUT THIS IS THE TYPE OF STORM THAT COULD PROMPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERNMOST PORTIONS. STAY TUNED. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 REMARKABLY...THE SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS FROM THE CMC...NAM...GFS... AND ECMWF WERE ALL EXTRAORDINARILY SIMILAR. WHILE ONE CANNOT TAKE THE MAGNITUDES VERBATIM...THE TREND SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM SNOWFALLS OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN IN NW AND N CENTRAL MA AND SW NH AND MUCH LESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE HARTFORD AREA EAST TO PLYMOUTH MA AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOSTON. AGAIN...STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL. BUT THIS IS THE TYPE OF STORM THAT COULD PROMPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERNMOST PORTIONS. STAY TUNED. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Nice overnight trends on the models. I think round 1 is the one that is going to drop much of the snow. I like a general 3-6 with round 1..maybe less farther north..and then we'll see what round 2 does Hmmmm, weenie goggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looks like a couple inches for many. My favorite line from the this morning's AFD: HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN TERMS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW STRUCTURE. Better toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Kind of worried that this will just be a slush fest here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Kind of worried that this will just be a slush fest here What? We're in a great spot for round 1..ROund 2 we'll see what happens..but the first round looks to be the biggest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS/GEFS def are still the northenr outlier for phase 2 of the storm by far...not really even close...but for round 1 its not too dissimilar than a lot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What? We're in a great spot for round 1..ROund 2 we'll see what happens..but the first round looks to be the biggest Yeah you look better for round 1. It's not saying much, but I'd rather be near CT for round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 FWIW 6z nam is robust and puts down .5 to .7 with part 1. Wave 2 seems to be less exciting but maybe .4 or so. 6z gfs on the other hand looks meh. It snows for a while but very low impact I think. I guess we'll take what we can get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Its still not going to surprise me a bit if guidance tries to bring the two phases of the storm closer together and makes one a lot more dominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Its still not going to surprise me a bit if guidance tries to bring the two phases of the storm closer together and makes one a lot more dominant I thought we are already seeing this on some guidance. Look at the SREFs for instance. They seems to like the second part. I'm sort of hoping for that, instead of a strung out mess for part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Its still not going to surprise me a bit if guidance tries to bring the two phases of the storm closer together and makes one a lot more dominant Consolidation of equivalent qpf would certainly help on accums. Long drawn out affairs really dampen that piece of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The whole thing is still rather disorganized looking and banded. Precip rates are kind of meh and no real good inflow, CCB, or WCB with this. Pretty good screw potential. I hope we see these rates increase a bit as we get closer. yeah. .7" of LE spread over 36 hours will be tough this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The srefs have decent 8" probs for eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I thought we are already seeing this on some guidance. Look at the SREFs for instance. They seems to like the second part. I'm sort of hoping for that, instead of a strung out mess for part 1. Canadian has def been doing that too...and as worthless as it is (esp this time frame), the NAM is starting to do it too. Its almost like they have the initial surge dampen out, and go fr a secondary surge 6 hours later that almost congeals with round 2. There's a lot of energy that is going to be to our west and really won't have enough confluence to get put through a meat grinder enough to dissipate all the good dynamics IMHO....even the pessimistic Euro trended more robust with the vortmax swinging through here eventually. That energy trending a better and holding together is why I think at some point we'll see a trend toward a more dominant period of dynamics at some point here in the next couple days....I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 it appears GYX is implying around a foot up here. Too bad I'll be in Hong Kong....best storm of the winter. They say period of light, then possible period of heavy, then period of moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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