weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 nam has precip in here around or just before noon........?? Yeah but you're in the the extreme SW corner of CT...no appreciable qpf falls as snow until after 21z for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah but you're in the the extreme SW corner of CT...no appreciable qpf falls as snow until after 21z for most of the state. ok, my point and reference was for the coastal plain.........nice run as I said for the hills of western and eastern ct, but its pointless talking about details with this much lead time, I am sure the sensible weather will be much much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Man, I wish the srefs were more accurate at this range. ever member gives ORH to BDL 2+ and some give 10-12. There is also a tight clustering around 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ehh..doesn't look too bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What is the cause of the second slug of precip? Is it when the system moves eastward? b/c the first wave is associated with the isentropic lift, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What is the cause of the second slug of precip? Is it when the system moves eastward? b/c the first wave is associated with the isentropic lift, correct? The WCB reintensifies as the ULL comes closer...good ML frontogensis...I'd rather the front running stuff get much delayed or just fizzle in favor of more consolidated stuff closer to ULL support. The true SW flow at 5h doesn't reach us until 78 hours on the NAM...before that the 5h flow is actually W or even slightly N of due west which is why between 66 and 72 hours the precip is getting shunted eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Make a classic elevation dependent late season climo infused map with and you will be spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Make a classic elevation dependent late season climo infused map with and you will be spot on violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The WCB reintensifies as the ULL comes closer...good ML frontogensis...I'd rather the front running stuff get much delayed or just fizzle in favor of more consolidated stuff closer to ULL support. The true SW flow at 5h doesn't reach us until 78 hours on the NAM...before that the 5h flow is actually W or even slightly N of due west which is why between 66 and 72 hours the precip is getting shunted eastward. Thanks. I was was wondering which had potential to be more beneficial to us, the first slug or the second slug. Not only does better ML frontogenesis arrive by 78 hours but looks like the better and stronger low level lift arrives at this time as well. Hopefully we can just turn this into one player and not two waves...I hate those two wave events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The WCB reintensifies as the ULL comes closer...good ML frontogensis...I'd rather the front running stuff get much delayed or just fizzle in favor of more consolidated stuff closer to ULL support. The true SW flow at 5h doesn't reach us until 78 hours on the NAM...before that the 5h flow is actually W or even slightly N of due west which is why between 66 and 72 hours the precip is getting shunted eastward. Yeah, also in the latest runs of the NAM, GFS, and what's depicted on the Euro, the mid level ridge axis is still to our southwest at 00z Thursday, so until that time we're under anticyclonic vorticity advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 en fuego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS vs the rest of the guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Is it really too much to ask to get one nicely organized system? This is pathetic. Stupid strung out garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 lol...lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I like the look of the ULL coming in for 78h and beyond...its a bit too warm verbatim for much snow until the back end, but I'd much rather have it look robust there than have the whole system strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 At least we can throw out the GFS...that's what Kevin would say to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I like the look of the ULL coming in for 78h and beyond...its a bit too warm verbatim for much snow until the back end, but I'd much rather have it look robust there than have the whole system strung out. Looks like most of the QPF is central/eastern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS vs the rest of the guidance right now. Maybe CMC and GFS vs. everyone else. The CMCs been more of an in-betweener for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS would satisfy my long duration storm fetish. Solid 24 hour storm. Never work out though The GFS has moved toward other guidance in a few respects ... slower with the upper low, and thus the wave becomes more amplified. More s/w ridging is able to build between the storm and the departing trough ...thus also, we don't really have our classic southwest flow situation. Definitely more emphasis starting to ride on the upper low system itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 So much for amazing model agreement. The models had better agreement on this storm 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 lol...lock it in. I'll be somewhere up here next weekend so you can lock in a good snow event this week for cne/nne. Lol at those looking at the NAM at 84 hours....the Jerry Springer of weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GEM continued its 12z trend of sort of scraping much of anything for the first event and focusing stuff back for Wed night into Thu morning...looks pretty solid for that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The Euro is all that matters really. The NAM may be closer to the Euro than the GFS though. I'm pretty dubious of the GFS ramming it into that cold high so readily. My guess is the Euro is still more south. I'll be somewhere up here next weekend so you can lock in a good snow event this week for cne/nne. Lol at those looking at the NAM at 84 hours....the Jerry Springer of weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GEM continued its 12z trend of sort of scraping much of anything for the first event and focusing stuff back for Wed night into Thu morning...looks pretty solid for that time frame. Big dumping for those of us sucking futility on cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm rooting for Jay Peak to get more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro now going the route of making the first wave more robust again, but holding it back a tad...making it later. Still not great, but it definitely increased the front wave a bit....still waiting to see what it does in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Euro now going the route of making the first wave more robust again, but holding it back a tad...making it later. Still not great, but it definitely increased the front wave a bit....still waiting to see what it does in round 2. What's the timing for round one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What's the timing for round one? Late afternoon/evening. Maybe a bit earlier for SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Round 2 is pretty decent for E MA...nothing crazy but like 0.40-0.45 falls for BOS and probably 2/3rds of that is Thu night so you have time of day working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.