ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Seems likely we'll have an extended period of snow here. I like the GFS 18z area of enhanced precip over the SVT and the N.Berks. The Euro didn't look as bad as some in the thread made it sound. What are your plans tomorrow? If you're at the B'east I'll shoot over in the afternoon. Honestly though, head north, best snow since I left AK. Lots o'skiing incoming. I'm exhausted but it's that endorphin high kind of tired, So sweet. lets ski this week. seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS AND IF IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. Not much more needs to be said at this juncture. It looks like it's going to snow. Advisory level or better. We'll see where the flakes fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm lurking as we await clarity on suppression, strength of system 1 vs. system 2, and other details... but 1 comment: NAM, GFS, and EURO all bust futility for Boston Wed-Thurs... The boy has cried wolf oh so many times this winter, and this winter has pulled out enough no-snow miracles to be cautious. But if we do bust futility, let's see if we can get either a prolonged 1993-94-style swfe, or more impressive cyclogenesis with system 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yea heading to the Beast for some relaxed runs, not enough time for a VT run with work on Tuesday. Glad you had the chance to enjoy the best of the year. PM me your cell #. I'm going to try to get over in the afternoon. lets ski this week. seriously I'm going back to MRG/Sugarbush Thurs/Fri. I have friends that will be skiing one or the other. PM me as this is OT and I dion't want to be suspended by a trigger happy mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm lurking as we await clarity on suppression, strength of system 1 vs. system 2, and other details... but 1 comment: NAM, GFS, and EURO all bust futility for Boston Wed-Thurs... The boy has cried wolf oh so many times this winter, and this winter has pulled out enough no-snow miracles to be cautious. But if we do bust futility, let's see if we can get either a prolonged 1993-94-style swfe, or more impressive cyclogenesis with system 2. I think this is a different animal. Everybody could score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 PM me your cell #. I'm going to try to get over in the afternoon. I'm going back to MRG/Sugarbush Thurs/Fri. I have friends that will be skiing one or the other. PM me as this is OT and I dion't want to be suspended by a trigger happy mod. Ok but I have no service at BEast, maybe text will work. I will look for you I am sure I can find you thru the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hey this storm is reminding me of a winter 93-94 type event. Maybe Jerry's analog will work once around March 1st. We also had several systems that bore some resemblance to this in later February 1993, but maybe we had more negative NAO then ....not sure. That winter came to an exquisite conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Pete you must have got some of that LES yesterday over there. For one fleeting hour here (when it lifted this far north) ...it was like a blizzard. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS AND IF IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. Not much more needs to be said at this juncture. It looks like it's going to snow. Advisory level or better. We'll see where the flakes fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z GFS looks like it has some convective feedback issues going on in the mid atlantic. Seems to develop some suspicious looking convection to our south essentially robbing the northern periphery of moisture. Funny you said this (earlier at this point ...I'm behind) because I was just thinking that exact same thing about that run and this 18z for that matter. Not trying to give anything back to the snow lovers here - it just is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I know its the nam at 84, but can anyone comment on how is would set up for part 2? I could go out of my way to describe it, or ...if you pop over to PSU e-wall, the DGEX solution is a pretty good extrapolation for the NAM - whether by mere coincidence or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Pete you must have got some of that LES yesterday over there. For one fleeting hour here (when it lifted this far north) ...it was like a blizzard. Hey Rick, we picked up 2.50" yesterday and .5" . A little underwhelming but looks like we'll get another shot at something more substantial mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sfc wont be very warm in any scenario with the sfc high in that spot. I'm still waiting for the models to decide what they want to do with the energy...it seems they are kind of undecided on where to place more emphasis....last system it was certainly in round 2. Maybe it is again in this system, but it could decide to front load it a bit more which we've seen in the past with other 2 part systems or what looked like 2 part systems at 3-4 days out but turned into just a single system as we got closer....that's sort of what I'm waiting on with this one. I know what you mean. The first part could come in more robust, but then I wonder if we have ptype issues. Although if the GFS is right, it might not be bad to keep it south as it keeps the most QPF way to the north. I feel like storm 2 has a chance of being more robust, but it's just speculating at this point. This whole setup is a little sketchy to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I could go out of my way to describe it, or ...if you pop over to PSU e-wall, the DGEX solution is a pretty good extrapolation for the NAM - whether by mere coincidence or not... Oh right...I forgot about the DGEX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is even dead for a dead zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My 60-Hr work week is finally over!!! Now I can finally pay attention to weather in better detail and just in time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21z SREFs look good and north compared to 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My 60-Hr work week is finally over!!! Now I can finally pay attention to weather in better detail and just in time too I am in the middle of a three week stretch without a day off...can't wait for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This is even dead for a dead zone Here's the srefs. The mean looks good hence this nice looking snowfall map but there is still decent spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am in the middle of a three week stretch without a day off...can't wait for Friday. That's tough...that's what it was like for me from the 3rd week of November through the first week of January...only day I think I had off was Christmas. 21z SREF looks juicy enough...good probs for >.50'' of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 That's tough...that's what it was like for me from the 3rd week of November through the first week of January...only day I think I had off was Christmas. 21z SREF looks juicy enough...good probs for >.50'' of precip. I really think the isentropic lift into that cold high should give us some snows, although I'd like to see the primary track over the eastern Great Lakes rather than the Upper Midwest/Plains. We could get a much stronger thump if it came further east. Yeah I am exhausted...I have been teaching full-time during the week, and then I was on duty for last weekend for activities, and this weekend for Parents' Weekend. I had all my parent-teacher conferences which was a lot of preparation. So it's been a while without a day off. But I do have the next 4 weekends off, spring break, and still a couple sick/personal days I can take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Here's the srefs. The mean looks good hence this nice looking snowfall map but there is still decent spread. Thanks for posting that. Not sure I buy it yet, but it is a help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Here's the srefs. The mean looks good hence this nice looking snowfall map but there is still decent spread. Nice, But still a long way out on this threat, Its a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm going to be annoyed if this threat doesn't come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm going to be annoyed if this threat doesn't come to fruition At this point, it won't even phase me. I'm hoping it happens, but I know what the downfalls might be. Lets just hope the 00z runs are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I really think the isentropic lift into that cold high should give us some snows, although I'd like to see the primary track over the eastern Great Lakes rather than the Upper Midwest/Plains. We could get a much stronger thump if it came further east. Yeah I am exhausted...I have been teaching full-time during the week, and then I was on duty for last weekend for activities, and this weekend for Parents' Weekend. I had all my parent-teacher conferences which was a lot of preparation. So it's been a while without a day off. But I do have the next 4 weekends off, spring break, and still a couple sick/personal days I can take. Still time for it to track further east...models haven't exactly been that great with tracks of these systems as of late. There should be (or at leas tit looks) a great deal of isentropic lift involved so the first thump of snow could really cash some people in...could definitely see some high snow rates in that band if the lift is as strong as modeled. Just north of where the warm front stalls is going to rip for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 At this point, it won't even phase me. I'm hoping it happens, but I know what the downfalls might be. Lets just hope the 00z runs are good. I got a 2-hour taste of +SN last week so now I want to get a decent storm to track again. If we get nothing I hope you and Ray and Phil can get nothing because you guys are owed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 I just really wanted a nice SNE coastal. Not even a huge one. Just give everyone 4-8 SwFE are so fickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I got a 2-hour taste of +SN last week so now I want to get a decent storm to track again. If we get nothing I hope you and Ray and Phil can get nothing because you guys are owed something. I missed the snow fall I couldn't stay up and wait...worked Thursday from 11 AM to 9:00 PM and have to wake up at 5:30 AM Friday for work...I knew it snowed out though when my eyes opened at 4:57 AM b/c I could see it was very bright outside...even with all my blinds closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I got a 2-hour taste of +SN last week so now I want to get a decent storm to track again. If we get nothing I hope you and Ray and Phil can get nothing because you guys are owed something. This area specifically is the top screw zone of the region...lol. It happens. Who knows..maybe I'll have a derecho move through here in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This area specifically is the top screw zone of the region...lol. It happens. Who knows..maybe I'll have a derecho move through here in June. Now you're talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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