CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is snow to an icy mix south of the pike... snow holds on north. Ray probably does ok for wave 1. But a sloppy solution down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS looks like a lot of 32 degree rain here lol...wonter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Nice hit for the Monadnocks at 84 on the 18z GFS but we've played this game before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Solution definitely has a wintry appeal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 biggest storm since october and had to wait until march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Solution definitely has a wintry appeal lol Does this look good to you for here? Maybe my amateur eyes are missing something. Looked like a 1-3 to mix to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Solution definitely has a wintry appeal lol works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Does this look good to you for here? Maybe my amateur eyes are missing something. GFS is like a couple inches of snow to sleet/freezing rain then back to an inch or two of snow. Just sort of gross. Question is whether the front thump overperforms. If it does then we could have a bigger type of event before we transition to something icy. NAM was balls cold in low levels even after mid level warmth comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS looks sort of blah for wave 1 Why are you looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Why are you looking? Looking at what? Which model should we be using now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is like a couple inches of snow to sleet/freezing rain then back to an inch or two of snow. Just sort of gross. Question is whether the front thump overperforms. If it does then we could have a bigger type of event before we transition to something icy. NAM was balls cold in low levels even after mid level warmth comes north. Sfc wont be very warm in any scenario with the sfc high in that spot. I'm still waiting for the models to decide what they want to do with the energy...it seems they are kind of undecided on where to place more emphasis....last system it was certainly in round 2. Maybe it is again in this system, but it could decide to front load it a bit more which we've seen in the past with other 2 part systems or what looked like 2 part systems at 3-4 days out but turned into just a single system as we got closer....that's sort of what I'm waiting on with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Why are you looking? Just a thought....but maybe cuz he forecasts for a living? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Sfc wont be very warm in any scenario with the sfc high in that spot. I'm still waiting for the models to decide what they want to do with the energy...it seems they are kind of undecided on where to place more emphasis....last system it was certainly in round 2. Maybe it is again in this system, but it could decide to front load it a bit more which we've seen in the past with other 2 part systems or what looked like 2 part systems at 3-4 days out but turned into just a single system as we got closer....that's sort of what I'm waiting on with this one. Yeah I think ice will be the ultimate solution in some areas with a strong damming signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looking at what? Which model should we be using now? GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I just hope the mlvl warmth doesn't arrive too quickly and we get mostly sleet or freezing rain crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS What's wrong with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Sfc wont be very warm in any scenario with the sfc high in that spot. I'm still waiting for the models to decide what they want to do with the energy...it seems they are kind of undecided on where to place more emphasis....last system it was certainly in round 2. Maybe it is again in this system, but it could decide to front load it a bit more which we've seen in the past with other 2 part systems or what looked like 2 part systems at 3-4 days out but turned into just a single system as we got closer....that's sort of what I'm waiting on with this one. Looks like it gon snow and for an extended period. It makes sense that the SWFE is stronger but it also makes perfect sense a secondary transfer from the primary ignites a decent circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 What's wrong with the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Haven't been paying attention to the next one... so it is going to snow again? Maybe we are turning the corner up here like we did in 2007 now that there's over 20" in the yard. That Monday night clipper looks nice on the 18z GFS with some orographic assist. Then Wed-Thurs looks snowy for everyone. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like it gon snow and for an extended period. It makes sense that the SWFE is stronger but it also makes perfect sense a secondary transfer from the primary ignites a decent circulation. Yeah I'm feeling pretty good about a period of accumulating snow at this point. I'd rather need a slight bump in robustness at this stage of the game in a SWFE than the other way around. We'll see how it trends in the next 36 hours...but we've seen us get fooled by some of these trends before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'll be excited when Will, Scott and Ryan are all on board for a 4"+ snowfall even down in CT. Otherwise, I'm saying screw school for a day or two and going north to wherever the snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yeah I'm feeling pretty good about a period of accumulating snow at this point. I'd rather need a slight bump in robustness at this stage of the game in a SWFE than the other way around. We'll see how it trends in the next 36 hours...but we've seen us get fooled by some of these trends before. Having an overachiever down here the other morning followed by an overachiever QPF rain event gives me hope with this much colder high in place that things break our way this time. Still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS Ensm mean looks pretty solid for majority of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS Ensm mean looks pretty solid for majority of SNE. Yea looks nice, cold and QPF nearing an inch. It gon snow Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.TWO MAIN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME SNOW TO THE REGION WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS/TIMING AND DURATION REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK. THE KEY IS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HOW MUCH SUPPRESSION RESULTS FROM IT. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE...AS IT SUPPRESSES THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE SNOW GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH ITS AN OUTLIER...BASED ON A STRONG HIGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND ITS TRACK RECORD LEANED IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE OTHER GUIDANCE. SO BASICALLY...WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY/S ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES WED/WED NIGHT. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE REGION ON THU. AGAIN...ITS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH IT FORMS. LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT DID FACTOR IN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SETUP WHICH USUALLY FAVORS OUR EASTERN ZONES TO GET THE MOST PRECIPITATION...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. ALL IN ALL...ODDS FAVOR MOST OF THE REGION EVENTUALLY SEEING SOME SNOW FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO EVEN SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS WE FEEL THE GFS THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. kev wrote the aftn afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 kev wrote the aftn afd. If Ray had written it, he would have correctly said the inverted trough typically favors much hype but no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yea looks nice, cold and QPF nearing an inch. It gon snow Robert. Seems likely we'll have an extended period of snow here. I like the GFS 18z area of enhanced precip over the SVT and the N.Berks. The Euro didn't look as bad as some in the thread made it sound. What are your plans tomorrow? If you're at the B'east I'll shoot over in the afternoon. Honestly though, head north, best snow since I left AK. Lots o'skiing incoming. I'm exhausted but it's that endorphin high kind of tired, So sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 kev wrote the aftn afd. Nah--only if it said "we tossed all the other models since they're crap--esp. the GFS" could you make that claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 kev wrote the aftn afd. ALL IN ALL...ODDS FAVOR MOST OF THE REGION EVENTUALLY SEEING SOME SNOW FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO EVEN SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS WE FEEL THE GFS THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. The most important statement in the the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Seems likely we'll have an extended period of snow here. I like the GFS 18z area of enhanced precip over the SVT and the N.Berks. The Euro didn't look as bad as some in the thread made it sound. What are your plans tomorrow? If you're at the B'east I'll shoot over in the afternoon. Honestly though, head north, best snow since I left AK. Lots o'skiing incoming. I'm exhausted but it's that endorphin high kind of tired, So sweet. Yea heading to the Beast for some relaxed runs, not enough time for a VT run with work on Tuesday. Glad you had the chance to enjoy the best of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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