ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro ens looks very close to op... suppressed wave 1? They look more amped witrh wave 1 IMHO....not a big solution by any means but I like it better than the OP. You can see it on the isotherms too where the 850 0C line is like 40-50 miles north of the OP at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 They look more amped witrh wave 1 IMHO....not a big solution by any means but I like it better than the OP. You can see it on the isotherms too where the 850 0C line is like 40-50 miles north of the OP at 84 hours. Not sure I really see that. Seems to me like both op and ens mean have a fairly similar (1008mb) low east of Wallops Island at 96 hours. Looks pretty dead nuts to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Latest Accuweather map, made at around 12:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 accuweather is so brazen lol anything for ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Not sure I really see that. Seems to me like both op and ens mean have a fairly similar (1008mb) low east of Wallops Island at 96 hours. Looks pretty dead nuts to me. 96 hours is during the secondary development after wave 1...I'm looking more at 84h and the isobars south of SNE...def a bit north of the OP and so are the isotherms. Not that any of this rfeally matters at 84 hours...I'm sure its going to change some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z NAM a bit juicer than the 12z through hour 72. Should be a good front end thump before a changeover. Looks like whatever strength it lost in the HP it made up for with a weaker primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 96 hours is during the secondary development after wave 1...I'm looking more at 84h and the isobars south of SNE...def a bit north of the OP and so are the isotherms. Not that any of this rfeally matters at 84 hours...I'm sure its going to change some more. Oh ok... yeah I see what you're saying for wave 1. NAM looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z NAM a bit juicer than the 12z through hour 72. Should be a good front end thump before a changeover. Looks like whatever strength it lost in the HP it made up for with a weaker primary. Looks south of 12z but still extremely juiced compared to the EC/GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 LOL. 18z nam has ~1.0" for SW CT, ~.7 for HFD, ~.3 for KTOL, and hardly nothing N of the MA/CT border. It's trending towards northern areas having to rely on part 2. Part 1 may be a CT/NY/NJ event. edit: It actually eventually gets northern areas with some decent snow, but it takes till that night...like 00z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Seems like confidence is waning some but as long as the threat is on the table it'd be silly to discount it outside 12 hrs this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 If there is any model that folks should never look at its the Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Sounds like the Euro ens imply a nice solid 3-6 snowfall with round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Oh ok... yeah I see what you're saying for wave 1. NAM looks south. If I were you I would lock in the 18z nam no questions asked and take my 9-10" and be done for the winter...too bad its the nam at 78 and will not be close most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 People hate the nam when it doesnt show snow for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 SREFs are juicy bit there's a lot of spread. Some suppressed with very little even into CT and others are quite warm and amped with a big surge of moisture. Definitely quite a bit of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 People hate the nam when it doesnt show snow for them I think its more that people hate the nam because its never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Verbatim, the NAM is a high advisory/low warning criteria snowfall for SENY/CT/RI. In reality, I would cut slash the totals by about a third and throw in a bit more mixing (to account for the NAM's QPF and cold bias), so a 2-4" snowfall before 925mb temps change everything to sleet is a plausible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z GFS looks like it has some convective feedback issues going on in the mid atlantic. Seems to develop some suspicious looking convection to our south essentially robbing the northern periphery of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I think its more that people hate the nam because its never right Its had one of the worst performances this winter that I can remember...at least for our area. Its been so bad. You cannot even really trust it at 24 hours this season...for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The Nam nailed the snowfall event in CT and RI the other day. I'd`say it along with the RGEM was the best model for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The Nam nailed the snowfall event in CT and RI the other day. I'd`say it along with the RGEM was the best model for that event. It nailed it 12 hours out woop do do. The euro nailed it 48 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its had one of the worst performances this winter that I can remember...at least for our area. Its been so bad. You cannot even really trust it at 24 hours this season...for whatever reason. Yeah Will, It has, Its been pathetic for our region as a whole, It really has been bad inside 24hrs on quite a few storms this year, They really need to take another look into this model to see where it is flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 SREFs are juicy bit there's a lot of spread. Some suppressed with very little even into CT and others are quite warm and amped with a big surge of moisture. Definitely quite a bit of spread. It may be pointless to look at the srefs 78 hours out...but every single member gets snow up to the pike. For BDL all but one has 2+ and several have 6-8". There's a decent cluster around 3-4" but like you said....there's a lot of spread. More of the spread is to the north though and no SREF members completely shut SNE out (one gives like C-1")...and most of the spread is on the high end with a few weenie solutions. Of course, it's way to far out to go into details like this but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z GFS looks like it has some convective feedback issues going on in the mid atlantic. Seems to develop some suspicious looking convection to our south essentially robbing the northern periphery of moisture. Kind of Bizzare GFS builds a miniridge in behing the shortwave. EURO pops the ridge right under the shortwave and damps it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It nailed it 12 hours out woop do do. The euro nailed it 48 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I know its the nam at 84, but can anyone comment on how is would set up for part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Is the storm next weekend a warm rainer..or a cold rain beginning as snow/mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS looks sort of blah for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Good for areas north of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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