H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z GEM total snow. Hits NYC with part 1 and pike N with part 2 I believe...so you can see the nice little snow hole centered around Tolland, CT. That's like a 1/1-1/3/10 and 2/26/10 hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Part 1 sort of reminds of 2/21/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Part 1 sort of reminds of 2/21/11. I only have 1.7" written down for that, don't remember it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Disappointing set of runs today. Eh, not really, for me anyway... If one were not expecting success than the lack there of becomes entirely routine. Enduring a winter failing to get snow 30 some-odd different ways - it seems failing to snow must somehow beget failing to snow. Is there a physical cause? Who knows - probably just an unrelenting bad luck series. In the study of chaos/fractals, apparent patterns of organization will spontaneously emerge, and then decay in time, giving the illusion of order. In this case, the randomness that is the weather just pulled off the very low probability - the "negativity lottery" ha. There may have been 1% chance of a winter like this happening - fair enough probability considering that the only winter worse than this in the last 100 years was that mid 1930's Shawshanking.. Even the best hitters in Baseball have cold streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Even if the initial wave of precip is suppressed or strung out (still a big if)...I think at some point there will be a decent slug of precip moving in. That's a lot of energy still off the to west and that has to move east...its not a uber weak strung out vortmax like on 1/21 this year. That's a bomb out in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's not a bad run for this winter, but I've been getting a vibe from some in here like we were in line for a MECS. Nothing looks epic about it, but it'll still be nice to see people get some decent accums out of it. You know how it goes. Some see a 60 hr snow event and lock in a MECS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well the first batch on Wednesday is clearly heading into the crapper very similar to last time. Someone will get lucky like CT got lucky then. I see the NAM is so juicy for everyone, but it has zero credibility. In any other winter this is a mundane forgettable event. This year I guess I'll savor whatever we get....has to beat the 0.1" I got on Friday morning right. This one had never been for NNe. Always been for cne and Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I only have 1.7" written down for that, don't remember it at all. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02212011.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Theme for this winter is ...any time there are good dynamics or phasing, its gonna rain. The only way it can snow is when the system falls apart on approach, or as in last week down south - if a non phased southern stream low can throw some moisture over cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Even if the initial wave of precip is suppressed or strung out (still a big if)...I think at some point there will be a decent slug of precip moving in. That's a lot of energy still off the to west and that has to move east...its not a uber weak strung out vortmax like on 1/21 this year. That's a bomb out in the plains. As long as it can slide under us, I'll be happy. I wasnt a big fan of the euro depiction, but that doesn't mean much at 100+ hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....rm02212011.html Ugh, that's horrible. But still, 1.7" would be a win this year TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 As long as it can slide under us, I'll be happy. I wasnt a big fan of the euro depiction, but that doesn't mean much at 100+ hrs. The Vortmax that is. Having it go over Dendrites fanny isn't the best for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Pretty much, but as we get into the spring multi wave bowling ball season....we could find ourselves on on the favorable side of the rolling ball for one of them in March or April. Even if it sucks overall. http://www.erh.noaa....rm02212011.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 One bad run and the bridge jumpers are out in full force That's the thing..it's not a bad run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Even if the initial wave of precip is suppressed or strung out (still a big if)...I think at some point there will be a decent slug of precip moving in. That's a lot of energy still off the to west and that has to move east...its not a uber weak strung out vortmax like on 1/21 this year. That's a bomb out in the plains. You'd think so but ... but at some point, seeing any plausible means to annihilate snow from occurring as being a persistence in its self, regardless of "why" that is ... Put it this way, a familiar definition for insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I don't think it is too crazy then to assume this fumbles around and f* up by means of finding least probability to ensure that happens. Case in point; that storm that escaped seaward over the lower MA that was originally supposed to be a big snow bombing blizzard up this way ... That storm had 0 business exiting at that longitude during a +2 NAO anomaly. It's just an interesting year where it can't snow and it is what it is... At this point, personally I'm resolute in assuming its not going to happen, sans any reasoning why - that's part of the torture game. Not going play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's just way too early to get worked up either way. Let's the cards fall as they during the runs tonight and tomorrow and evaluate from there. That's the best advice I can think of. For now I can't find a concrete evidence to think that we will have WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 But the Euro surface low pulls off rather far south ..below the SNE BM. Hopefully some kind of decent inverted trough would ensue at least. The Vortmax that is. Having it go over Dendrites fanny isn't the best for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 You'd think so but ... but at some point, seeing any plausible means to annihilate snow from occurring as being a persistence in its self, regardless of "why" that is ... Put it this way, a familiar definition for insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I don't think it is too crazy then to assume this fumbles around and f* up by means of finding least probability to ensure that happens. Case in point; that storm that escaped seaward over the lower MA that was originally supposed to be a big snow bombing blizzard up this way ... That storm had 0 business exiting at that longitude during a +2 NAO anomaly. It's just an interesting year where it can't snow and it is what it is... At this point, personally I'm resolute in assuming its not going to happen, sans any reasoning why - that's part of the torture game. Not going play. Well its certainly good to keep expectations low...no argument there. I'm reasonably optimistic about some snow from this given the time frame...I'm not going to start expecting a big 6-10 event though until there is reason to. I think people forget just how far out 4-5 days is...we are nearing the 3 day threshold for the front end of this event...but even that is an eternity. In a year where snow is so scarce, people tend to look much further out on model guidance than is really even prudent unless they are well aware of the probabilistic nature of models in that time frame....which isn't easy for everyone because they are looking at deterministic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Uk met is a complete miss synoptically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just gonna be haves and have nots..... Someone gets between the two maxes. Unlike last time, nobody gets rain at leas...save maybe the Cape or something. Well its certainly good to keep expectations low...no argument there. I'm reasonably optimistic about some snow from this given the time frame...I'm not going to start expecting a big 6-10 event though until there is reason to. I think people forget just how far out 4-5 days is...we are nearing the 3 day threshold for the front end of this event...but even that is an eternity. In a year where snow is so scarce, people tend to look much further out on model guidance than is really even prudent unless they are well aware of the probabilistic nature of models in that time frame....which isn't easy for everyone because they are looking at deterministic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 JB says Tip had better lay low BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Battle line .. snow ice and rain, very close to NYC with southern New england prob all snow. Major trough buckles into O valley nxt wknd » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Map for Leap Storm in the plains, March in like a Lion for the northeast. MSP target city for heaviest in Plains http://pic.twitter.com/5lCyyFFu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 JB says Tip had better lay low BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Battle line .. snow ice and rain, very close to NYC with southern New england prob all snow. Major trough buckles into O valley nxt wknd » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Map for Leap Storm in the plains, March in like a Lion for the northeast. MSP target city for heaviest in Plains http://pic.twitter.com/5lCyyFFu Ive been in Jb 3-6 shade 3 times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS has really been struggling lately. It had the suppressed storm over a week ago cutting through our area. This week it tried to blast the warm front through on Friday. That model needs a major tune up. Well respected posters from other threads commenting on how bad the GFS is/has been this winter..yet many here use it, forecast from it and think it is worthwhile to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I hope the performance of the models improve during the summer when we're dealing with severe wx threats. They should though...less in the way atmospheric variables in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It doesnt snow in March anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 18z nam should be good for getting peoples hopes up again in 40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 JB says Tip had better lay low BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Battle line .. snow ice and rain, very close to NYC with southern New england prob all snow. Major trough buckles into O valley nxt wknd » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Map for Leap Storm in the plains, March in like a Lion for the northeast. MSP target city for heaviest in Plains http://pic.twitter.com/5lCyyFFu That's going to be an interesting trick considering there is 0, nadda, no teleconnector support for that. The NAO is positive, and the PNA is negative - if there is a trough in the OV it will be transient, severed from the flow, and complete coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 atleast we got the DGEX on our side lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 18z nam should be good for getting peoples hopes up again in 40 minutes. Need Another ModelIt worked out so well this past system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro ens looks very close to op... suppressed wave 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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