CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GFS is hideous... NAM is awesome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 The changes were very subtle and to see that at day 4 is pretty amazing. Overall consistent modeling. Yeah, when have we seen that last? October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GGEM seems to sort of hold back round 1 more until Wed night....but its a pretty good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Nice weenie run up this way Yep, I'd hit that. But as you said earlier we stand a good chance of watching on the sidelines. Expecting SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yep, I'd hit that. But as you said earlier we stand a good chance of watching on the sidelines. Expecting SE trend. Outlier right now, We will watch the trends, SE has been the trend all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GGEM seems to sort of hold back round 1 more until Wed night....but its a pretty good thump. This time of year ..I think we'd all prefer a night time event..with warm ground and sun angle..the later in the day the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This time of year ..I think we'd all prefer a night time event..with warm ground and sun angle..the later in the day the better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't mind the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Outlier right now, We will watch the trends, SE has been the trend all season Maybe for 1 or 2 storms but I don't think there has been any trend in the models except ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't mind the Canadian. Some folks snow for 40 hours on the Canadian, Will would get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Maybe for 1 or 2 storms but I don't think there has been any trend in the models except ****. I can't count very many that came North or NW the last 24hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro was light on qpf with the snow event the other day and we know how that turned out. No reason to worry or have low expectations for this at all. Start high and lower if you have to..Look big picture and globally..not small and here and now LOL at the Weenies having high expectations on this one 4 days out. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Some folks snow for 40 hours on the Canadian, Will would get smoked. I would not mind it either, Round 2 anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 LOL at the Weenies having high expectations on this one 4 days out. Good luck with that. Congealing of synoptic setup and consistency is much better, you should real Phil's thread on the main board and learn something's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 LOL at the Weenies having high expectations on this one 4 days out. Good luck with that. How did you all ra for sne snow for you call work out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 12z GFS Ensm don't look too bad. They do warm a bit(by 96h) over southern ares so it's tough to tell what falls as frozen in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How did you all ra for sne snow for you call work out again? Everyone was calling for rain 18 hours out so what's your point? Congrats on your snow. I hope you made lots of snowmen and snow angels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Everyone was calling for rain 18 hours out so what's your point? this is part of Phil's thread on the main page and reason the excitement level and confidence level is higher for someone in our viewing area to have a decent long duration snowfall this week.The culprit is a large area of deformation that develops out in front of our synoptic low pressure system. The ECMWF shows this very well at 850 hPa on 12z Wednesday leading the precpitation moving into the northeast. The GFS also supports this general setup, with the Great Lakes region into the Northeast being located in both the right-entrance and left-exit region of two 70+ m/s jet streaks. Thus, its not surprising to see that the intial batch of precipitation moving into the area could be rather intense. What is more suprising though is that despite strong warm air advection occuring at this time period, the 850 hPa temperatures hardly budge above 0C across the majority of New York State and locations eastward. This is where the damming high really starts to become entrenched. Starting Wednesday afternoon and stretching into Friday, this high will literally not budge and inch as it remains firmly locked in place due to the amplification of a low pressure system off into the Atlantic maritimes. In fact, below zero 850 hPa temperatures will start backbuilding westward as the 850 hPa low pressure over the Great Lakes starts to fall apart in the face of strong confluence. It is only towards the end of the forecast that we see some evidence of a coastal feature show up, but I'd rather keep the details sparce on this system at this time since it is unknown if there will enough energy at 500 hPa to support cyclogenesis offshore that might ramp up precipitation totals from New York City, NY to Boston, MA. Those details should become clearer as we move into the work week in the next couple of days. One thing looks increasingly likely though. This will likely be a long duration event, with several impules that will ride along the boundary established between the strong damming high pressure over Canada and the weakening cyclone to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 lol Good luck getting snow to stick falling lightly at 35 degrees on the valley during midday in early March lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GGEM is kinda meh to me. Looks like prolonged -SN with an occasional SN burst with a rapidly weakening upper level system. It's early March too so I do agree with Kev that sun angle to some degree starts becoming a concern in the lower els during the daytime with marginal temps and relatively light/scattered precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 this is part of Phil's thread on the main page and reason the excitement level and confidence level is higher for someone in our viewing area to have a decent long duration snowfall this week. The culprit is a large area of deformation that develops out in front of our synoptic low pressure system. The ECMWF shows this very well at 850 hPa on 12z Wednesday leading the precpitation moving into the northeast. The GFS also supports this general setup, with the Great Lakes region into the Northeast being located in both the right-entrance and left-exit region of two 70+ m/s jet streaks. Thus, its not surprising to see that the intial batch of precipitation moving into the area could be rather intense. What is more suprising though is that despite strong warm air advection occuring at this time period, the 850 hPa temperatures hardly budge above 0C across the majority of New York State and locations eastward. This is where the damming high really starts to become entrenched. Starting Wednesday afternoon and stretching into Friday, this high will literally not budge and inch as it remains firmly locked in place due to the amplification of a low pressure system off into the Atlantic maritimes. In fact, below zero 850 hPa temperatures will start backbuilding westward as the 850 hPa low pressure over the Great Lakes starts to fall apart in the face of strong confluence. It is only towards the end of the forecast that we see some evidence of a coastal feature show up, but I'd rather keep the details sparce on this system at this time since it is unknown if there will enough energy at 500 hPa to support cyclogenesis offshore that might ramp up precipitation totals from New York City, NY to Boston, MA. Those details should become clearer as we move into the work week in the next couple of days. One thing looks increasingly likely though. This will likely be a long duration event, with several impules that will ride along the boundary established between the strong damming high pressure over Canada and the weakening cyclone to the west. Thanks jynx ... I'm not even concerned about snow totals right now.. I'm more convened about weather (nyuk nyuk) my flight to Myrtle beach will leave on time or not. 530 am flight out of Logan, Thursday morning. I don't want any damn snow to ruin it. Seriously though.. how much snow would it take to cancel flights? I'm not that famaliar with Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Does this look like an ice event further to the west (as in OH Valley, NY)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 DT is pretty gung ho for us with 8 to 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 DT is pretty gung ho for us with 8 to 16 Kiss o' death?*** ALERT** MARCH 1 SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR NEW ENGLAND seems increasingly Likely with large areas in that region --especially inland -- could see 8 to 16" of snow ... NYC looks like snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Does this look like an ice event further to the west (as in OH Valley, NY)? I think there could be a somewhat narrow strip of moderate to signficant ice in the NY southern tier into the Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 DT is pretty gung ho for us with 8 to 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GGEM is kinda meh to me. Looks like prolonged -SN with an occasional SN burst with a rapidly weakening upper level system. It's early March too so I do agree with Kev that sun angle to some degree starts becoming a concern in the lower els during the daytime with marginal temps and relatively light/scattered precip. GGEM does had a decent period of qpf between 00z and 06z. Most of the GEM precip falls at night anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Dare I say the 12zUkie looks just a tad better than the 12z GFS.... Confluence looks a bit stronger just N of the VT/NH/ME border. Trough out W looks a bit more E as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 New write-up from BOX is low confidence but they said they favor advisory snow on Wednesday as the gfs is still coming in line with the EURO/GGEM. They said the potential is there for more (or less if it becomes to strung out and light). At this point I'm just about positive it will snow here Wed-Thu. It's just a matter of is it a light 1-2" on the grass because it was strung out/ snowing lightly during the day....or will it be a thump with major impact 6+ like the nam tried to do at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro is really suppressed and strung out with part 1. Maybe 1-2" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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