Amped Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I was going to bust out the February 14 1962 and the March 22 1967 analogs, but I figured it was a little early for that, so I won't even mention them. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How does YYZ look for this event? It gives you several inches, but it's spread out considerably. The first part gives you a few inches it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It gives you several inches, but it's spread out considerably. The first part gives you a few inches it appears There's two parts? Does the second one give me more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hey guys... I posted a thread up on the main weather and discussion forum discussing why I think the model uncertainty should be less this week than the last few since we won't be plagued with split flow phasing, and the current shortwave is already pretty amplified as it comes into the United States, so it should be handled well in the modeling. This post is more or less a copy from the blog update I've made on my own website, where I've also highlighted some key features that will come into play for this system as we move into the early part of this week. It might be a bit early for an outlook map, but I think given the model consistency, it can't hurt too much to go over the general setup. Way too early to discuss accumulations though. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/local3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Great storm for Boston coming up wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 0z GFS looked warm to me for a lot of SNE, hopefully it's wrong on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like we can start forecasting some amounts today. As of now you'd have to go with a widespread 8-12 combined from both systems and if we have to up that as we get closer we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like 48-60 straight hours of snow. I am going to be in heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like 48-60 straight hours of snow. I am going to be in heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Does it not? lol 2-2.5 days of continuous snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Does it not? lol 2-2.5 days of continuous snow Dude trust me, it looks fun....lol. The second low is really starting to interest me. If that remains rather formidable and not strung out as it moves under us, it had the chance to really drop siggy snows. I do like the colder trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Phil I see you posting. If it's not propitiatory, can you drop the link to those models images you posted in your thread? I think those would be cool for people to see. I actually had that book marked, but I'm not sure where I placed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS is borderline HECS for me..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like 48-60 straight hours of snow. I am going to be in heaven Will believe it when I see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS is borderline HECS for me..lol. Bookend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Dude trust me, it looks fun....lol. The second low is really starting to interest me. If that remains rather formidable and not strung out as it moves under us, it had the chance to really drop siggy snows. I do like the colder trends. I have a feeling by the end of Thursday you are going to be over 30,00 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I have a feeling by the end of Thursday you are going to be over 30,00 posts It's a really weird storm. It's just elongated and strung out, and then the final hurrah dumps like 6-12"..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 nice euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Phil I see you posting. If it's not propitiatory, can you drop the link to those models images you posted in your thread? I think those would be cool for people to see. I actually had that book marked, but I'm not sure where I placed it. A lot of the images come from Kyle Griffin's model page. Really awesome resource because you can go back 2 weeks in time for any model field and he has d(prog)/dt maps below as well. One of the servers crashed at SUNY Albany last weekend, so there are like 3-4 missing images in the 2 week loops, but everything is running smoothly again now. Here is the main link: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 A lot of the images come from Kyle Griffin's model page. Really awesome resource because you can go back 2 weeks in time for any model field and he has d(prog)/dt maps below as well. One of the servers crashed at SUNY Albany last weekend, so there are like 3-4 missing images in the 2 week loops, but everything is running smoothly again now. Here is the main link: http://www.atmos.alb.../kgriffin/maps/ I like the d(prog)/dt the best, but it's a cool site. The SUNY ALB site has some good stuff buried in it, when you play around in the site. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 i wonder what the chcs are this thing gets squelched even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 The GFS is borderline HECS for me..lol. How many hours before you put away the flags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 i wonder what the chcs are this thing gets squelched even further south. This year? 75+% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 i wonder what the chcs are this thing gets squelched even further south. I wouldn't be shocked if it ticked south a little more, but at the same time, it might put us in a bit better into the deformation zone and higher mid level RH like the GFS shows. However, you don't want the high to cause a lot of strong low level drying which sometimes happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How many hours before you put away the flags? I would think by this time tomorrow we can evaluate further and see what we have. It's not a clear cut case with the first batch of precip WAA driven, and then the second part due to both WAA/and PVA from the 500 low. Basically the second part is more of a classic deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's a really weird storm. It's just elongated and strung out, and then the final hurrah dumps like 6-12"..lol. I'm trying to think of a good analog storm where there 2-3 waves and just continuos snows.. The only one close maybe is Feb of 2008 (I think that was the year) where it snowed almost everyday for 1 week in an otherwise crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 i wonder what the chcs are this thing gets squelched even further south. Not very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm trying to think of a good analog storm where there 2-3 waves and just continuos snows.. The only one close maybe is Feb of 2008 (I think that was the year) where it snowed almost everyday for 1 week in an otherwise crappy winter Will sent me this. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us0113.php It was kind of a pike north deal iirc, because my area in Brockton had a messy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Not very better than you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 better than you think Cryptic is never good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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