HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Taint/BL issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 these are interesting runs, the GFS and Euro, because it shows that a transient blocking event (discussed earlier) can be just as important as having static more textbook broad-based forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Taint/BL issues? Double snow day this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Double snow day this week? Don't go therr senior dude...lolI just want it in the air, on the ground, and on the trailsSure beats temp talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't go therr senior dude...lolI just want it in the air, on the ground, and on the trailsSure beats temp talk Indeed, the snow day thing is just a bonus. I almost would of rather had it this week so I would have more time to track it. I'll be kind of busy this week but a snow day will be a nice break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here it is Watch out for convection robbing the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Dang, 8-10"...I'd take half that and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's getting there. Best run yet it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This run still has work to do for the I-90 south crown and coastal areas. Great hit for Will and esp NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GEFS are very similar to the op, maybe a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yeah I'd like it to tick south a bit and hit Boston with the heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It's getting there. Best run yet it seems. Yea. Nice setup, just counting the runs down. If Mondays 12 Z is good, have to lock in then. High terrain VT is going to get crushed in the next 14 days with system after system. Funny how Nina just pooped up. Lol on the long term GFS cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Again the key thing to watch is how consistent the models will be over the next 3-4 days. We are only seeing gradual shifts northward and southward, not the huge run to run discontinuity we were seeing with the system last week. I'm working on a blog update to my website, but looking at a d(prog)/dt map will really highlight how much more stable this solution is in comparison to the model uncertainty last week. We still have a long way to go, but its certainly a positive sign to see model convergence already starting to occur at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yea. Nice setup, just counting the runs down. If Mondays 12 Z is good, have to lock in then. High terrain VT is going to get crushed in the next 14 days with system after system. Funny how Nina just pooped up. Lol on the long term GFS cold though. Well that's great about no man's land, but hopefully we get something down this way. We'll need a more srly solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GEFS are very similar to the op, maybe a hair south. Great news, now the 3 day wait. Would love a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well that's great about no man's land, but hopefully we get something down this way. We'll need a more srly solution here. Don't be a hater. I will take pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Again the key thing to watch is how consistent the models will be over the next 3-4 days. We are only seeing gradual shifts northward and southward, not the huge run to run discontinuity we were seeing with the system last week. I'm working on a blog update to my website, but looking at a d(prog)/dt map will really highlight how much more stable this solution is in comparison to the model uncertainty last week. We still have a long way to go, but its certainly a positive sign to see model convergence already starting to occur at this time frame. Last week was just awful...actually the last few weeks with such a messy flow. This time, no srn stream ULL and the flow in Canada with that Rex looking block, I don't think we'll have to deal with s/w's trying to phase with this storm and muck up guidance. It's almost like bowling. Mother nature will throw us the ball (ULL) and we just got make sure it stays straight and not wobble up or down so that it's a strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Canadian looks pretty good too. Maybe a hair dryer with the first round, but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just looked at qpf for GGEM from 12z...very nice stripe of like 30mm (~1 to 1.2") all snow on a line along the pike. Haven't seen 0z yet but that's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro steady as a rock...a slight shift south for part 2 but given part 2 is in the 114-126 time range, small shifts are pretty irrelevant at this point. I think overall it was a shade stronger with the confluence this run which IMHO is probably better than seeing this go back warmer at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro steady as a rock...a slight shift south for part 2 but given part 2 is in the 114-126 time range, small shifts are pretty irrelevant at this point. I think overall it was a shade stronger with the confluence this run which IMHO is probably better than seeing this go back warmer at this time range. Part 1 is kind of strung out, but part 2 I thought looked a bit better. The only thing I don't really admire is the inv trough look that part 2 has. I think that's just how it may be if the confluence forces the ULL to get squished and force that inv trough look. I still worry about the strung out look to this whole thing. Hopefully part 2 won't dismantle and end up looking formidable as it passes under SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I can't complain about the shift south, however. Better surface cold, but it's a fine line with this. 700 fields look good with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Part 1 is kind of strung out, but part 2 I thought looked a bit better. The only thing I don't really admire is the inv trough look that part 2 has. I think that's just how it may be if the confluence forces the ULL to get squished and force that inv trough look. I still worry about the strung out look to this whole thing. Hopefully part 2 won't dismantle and end up looking formidable as it passes under SNE. I would have liked to see a bit more qpf from part 1 verbatim but at this time range its probably no use in nitpicking...the overall idea of this system has stayed the same for the most part and I'm sure we'll see a lot more subtle shifts in either direction coming up. Part 2 def has a higher ceiling though given that the ULL energy will have a chance to take an ideal track underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I joked about 5 days ago of having confluence help us out, and looks like it may happen..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Gfs only had like .3 here for part 1...does the euro at least have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its nice that part 1 never dryslots us even if its a yad strung out verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Gfs only had like .3 here for part 1...does the euro at least have that? Thats about what it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How does YYZ look for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I would have liked to see a bit more qpf from part 1 verbatim but at this time range its probably no use in nitpicking...the overall idea of this system has stayed the same for the most part and I'm sure we'll see a lot more subtle shifts in either direction coming up. Part 2 def has a higher ceiling though given that the ULL energy will have a chance to take an ideal track underneath us. Yeah I know it's nitpicking, but just one of the downfalls of these types of situations. But it's a catch 22. A more wound up system and less confluence brings the whole thing overhead like the 12z GFS. It's a long duration deal too with maybe a little OES type deal in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That's a -8C to -11C pocket at 850mb near the MA coast on the euro. That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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