CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 96 hours is time to start honing in on final solutions..We are in the Euro's wheelhouse now How has that worked out this winter? I will say the good news is that the bust potential is a bit less, but still there. Funny how people are already excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How has that worked out this winter? I will say the good news is that the bust potential is a bit less, but still there. Funny how people are already excited. Considering how every other model is again bowing down to the Euro..I think people have every right to be amped up for this one..esp now that we're under 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 lol you guys are obsessed with that picture! It's good snow karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Considering how every other model is again bowing down to the Euro..I think people have every right to be amped up for this one..esp now that we're under 4 days Salesman spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 lol you guys are obsessed with that picture! It's good snow karma Im predicting that picture will be around a while with some photoshopped changes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Im predicting that picture will be around a while with some photoshopped changes lol Yeah, most likely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Salesman spin. There are 2 categories..you're either tactical(focused on small picture and fixing current problems and worried on the here and now) or You are strategic(able to see the big picture/ think globallly/grow the business and willing to take risks) I can tell you exactly which one you fall into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 96 hours is time to start honing in on final solutions..We are in the Euro's wheelhouse now How did that work with yesterday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How did that work with yesterday's storm? No snow south of NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 I am enthusiastic in the sense that there will be something to track over the next couple of days, and hopefully longer. This might be it for the season, cuz you all known about March and April. And did any stations hit 50 yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 No snow south of NH. Bonnet hats for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Bonnet hats for everyone Just keep forecasting 50s and no snow. That helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just keep forecasting 50s and no snow. That helps And you wonder why no women post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 There are 2 categories..you're either tactical(focused on small picture and fixing current problems and worried on the here and now) or You are strategic(able to see the big picture/ think globallly/grow the business and willing to take risks) I can tell you exactly which one you fall into I would completely own you right now, you would be cleaning my executive bathroom. In all seriousness I'm sort of optimistic with this. One of the things like is the fact it has a good high. A good high means a lot if things but it also means that we may have enough confluence to keep it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I would completely own you right now, you would be cleaning my executive bathroom. In all seriousness I'm sort of optimistic with this. One of the things like is the fact it has a good high. A good high means a lot if things but it also means that we may have enough confluence to keep it south. If I were selling TP..you would be the buyer that buys the sandpaper 1 ply Scotts tissue Instead of seeing big picture and buying the squeezable Charmin triple ply with Aloe I'm not locking anything..just getting somewhat enthused and amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I would completely own you right now, you would be cleaning my executive bathroom. In all seriousness I'm sort of optimistic with this. One of the things like is the fact it has a good high. A good high means a lot if things but it also means that we may have enough confluence to keep it south. I am too. I think we could see a nice system. Especially given the 2-parter nature this has the potential to be more impressive than your typical SWFE given the potential for cashing in on bonus snows the following day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I am too. I think we could see a nice system. Especially given the 2-parter nature this has the potential to be more impressive than your typical SWFE given the potential for cashing in on bonus snows the following day **ALEET ALEET RYAN ON FOR BIG EAST COAST SNOWSTORM ALEET 12Z MODELSA SHOW SATORTM ALEET&**8* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 At 96+ hrs out, nothing is really serious in terms of snow. Just be glad a storm is modeled and go from there. It's a wise course in general. There is a bit of seasonal performance relativity to it, too. Some years, like 1995-1996, you could see it in the models some 8 days out and count on its occurrence more than 60% of the time. Some years stochastic behavior is just kept to a dull roar, other years it's not - this year is one of those years where its not. We keep getting ghost permutations that the models blow up or decay in time, meanwhile reality has had its own plan that's differed quite a bit during most of the time. But model performance really hasn't been too atrocious this year - below average, sure... What's really been our plight (across all of the U.S. for that matter) is the shear lack of events - we've hammered this, but fact remains, hard to complain about lack of snow when it's not doing anything at all. It's not like it's been raining for 2 months straight. But, that's getting off track into another discussion. Anywho, point being there are good performing years and poor ones. I'm sure much of that has to do with how patterns "fit" with a given model's native bias envelope. For example, the GFS has bested the Euro INSIDE the Euro's wheel house on a couple few occasions this winter (although Kevin ignores those so he can run with this blind faith auto-hate for American model products - again, a different discussion), but what does this winter have? It has had a very progressive nature to the flow - we find it no coincidence that the GFS has a longitudinal bias. That's just one example, but it gets the point across. In 1995-1996, the pattern was very non-stochastic in nature; high predictability in well-behaved spatial-temporal events. It's like all teleconnectors were in constructive wave interference pattern from Nov-Jan; broke for 3 weeks; then returned late the cold season. You didn't get SE ridges trying to poke up the EC when the NAO was negative; you didn't get split PNA domains with -EPO and raging -PNA cutting underneath... Nice predictable anchored long waves in the pentagonal configuration around the pole, with about 4 days spacing of individual entities in the flow. Easy times for the models. We haven't had a season like that for awhile either. Last year was a good performing winter in the results, but not so much in model performance. There was sooo much consternation in the run-up times prior to events; it sucked a lot of anticipation entertainment out of it and reduced the pre-storm euphoria. We had to wait to be pleasantly surprised. The Boxing Day storm is a great example of this. It looked good for a run or two...then so-so, then it was lost....then it sort came back, only to really get lost at 48 hours out, only to force NWS to rush out a blizzard warning with just 18 hours warning - something like that. There were a lot more systems like that, than not, last year. It was annoying. This year's kinda double trouble because not only is it below average in the model performance, it's had this weird nothing to model syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I am too. I think we could see a nice system. Especially given the 2-parter nature this has the potential to be more impressive than your typical SWFE given the potential for cashing in on bonus snows the following day I agree. Should say though: this same exact mindset led to some major busted forecasts for 2/2/2011 (Chicago blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I agree. Should say though: this same exact mindset led to some major busted forecasts for 2/2/2011 (Chicago blizzard) Well that is because some got unrealistic with the qpf from that system...people were throwing around 18-24 inch amounts which just didn't make much sense synoptically. I think for most of SNE, it was a general 8-12" snowfall with round 1 being the bigger deal on Feb 1st when it looked like round 2 might be bigger initially. Either way, we def haven't reached that point yet for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 that is a super nice CAD signature on the Euro..even BUF stays below or around freezing for that whole 2 part event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 0Z NAM at 84 hours (why am I looking) is showing it with a bit of a warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 00z GFS looks to be caving to the Euro. Confluence is stronger to the N this run compared to the 12z run. Looking at 84h so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 00z GFS looks to be caving to the Euro. Confluence is stronger to the N this run compared to the 12z run. Looking at 84h so far. Looks cold thru 96h with snows falling in MA/CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 By 102h looks like the 850 line has come up to the MA/CT/RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 00z GFS is a nice shift towards the Euro. Solid event, verbatim, for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 By 102h looks like the 850 line has come up to the MA/CT/RI border. Great run, secondary coastal. Looking good, 90 hrs left in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Break out the bonnet hats... GFS looks good Snow to a mix Wednesday and then some rain to snow and a flash freeze for Thursday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Closer baby Would like a solid region wide event But only 4.9" for Futility Boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Break out the bonnet hats... GFS looks good Snow to a mix Wednesday and then some rain to snow and a flash freeze for Thursday!!! It is heading towards Euro AKT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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