weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:46 AM, Bostonseminole said: flurries for me from #1 Actually gives you like 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 am I seeing something wrong? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:48 AM, HubbDave said: Bluebird skies for part 1 We'd definitely get some precip from the coastal forming off of Southern NJ...I think this run would still be a decent hit for the ORH hills and Monadnocks but it's much more favorable for NYC metro than SNE. NAM at longer ranges should be taken with a grain of salt however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 What is the nam doing Eggs all in one basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:48 AM, CT Rain said: Blah. Meh. NAM isn't too bad for us, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sniffing cirrus on part 1, Extropolate the nam it looks we would see some light precip round 2, But, meh its the nam, Take it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Part 2 was about to go to town I think across SNE as the H5 trough approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:51 AM, nzucker said: We'd definitely get some precip from the coastal forming off of Southern NJ...I think this run would still be a decent hit for the ORH hills and Monadnocks but it's much more favorable for NYC metro than SNE. NAM at longer ranges should be taken with a grain of salt however. Longer range = 12 hours or more Yeah, part 2 looks ok, but I think eventually that will head south. Wee will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My amateur eyes must suck, but I thought the NAM looked really decent for here lol. Ryan's not feeling it though so obviously I have no idea what the hell im looking at. Looked like 6"+ to me, whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Part 2 was about to go to town I think across SNE as the H5 trough approached. Yea what's Ryan smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Part 2 was about to go to town I think across SNE as the H5 trough approached. That's what I saw. Did not look meh to me from a modeling perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, ChrisM said: My amateur eyes must suck, but I thought the NAM looked really decent for here lol. Ryan's not feeling it though so obviously I have no idea what the hell im looking at. Looked like 6"+ to me, whoops No, your eyes are reading it right. Just that map is all weenied out Last week's event was showing up 8-12" for a lot of folks with that (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I kind of hate how Plymouth only goes out to 60 HR's for the NAM with the 0z runs...Plymouth is a great place too. Would like to see 700mb VV graphics...unysis has this graphics but models don't come out on there until like 5 hours after the base time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think its comical that you can't even get the same outcome twice in a nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, Ginx said: Yea what's Ryan smoking? I don't like the look of it. The NAM is backing off part 1 after thumping it real hard. That makes me think that in another few runs it will be a sheared out POS and we'll be smokin cirrus. Wave 2 is a bit more tenuous IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nam was good for CT on round one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:55 AM, HubbDave said: No, your eyes are reading it right. Just that map is all weenied out Last week's event was showing up 8-12" for a lot of folks with that (I think) Even without that map for here anyway it looked like .5 QPF + all snow to me. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think the coastal plain has issues with bl temps, snowing in the day, unless precip rates are really good, temps are above freezing at the surface on the nam, gfs and euro. Looked like a great run to me 500 ft on up in the western and eastern hills of ct and northern rhode island, part deux looked like it was going to go boom, as 850s were beginning to crash south and east, nice spot for the lp to form as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nam keeps the troff better defined, so the second round would be a hit, unlike the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NAM is just a weird setup... certainly nothing I'd be excited for to dump 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:54 AM, Ginx said: Yea what's Ryan smoking? I think he meant part 1 which was meh. But anyways, it's the NAM so I really could care less what it shows at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:58 AM, CT Rain said: I don't like the look of it. The NAM is backing off part 1 after thumping it real hard. That makes me think that in another few runs it will be a sheared out POS and we'll be smokin cirrus. Wave 2 is a bit more tenuous IMO. Yeah it certainly is, but just talking about what it had verbatim for storm 2. It didn't look that bad, but by no means is it comforting seeing a NAM 84 hr solution...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:58 AM, ChrisM said: Even without that map for here anyway it looked like .5 QPF + all snow to me. weird It was .5+ all snow, I just don't think Ryan liked the set-up, or how long it took to get to the .5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 3:01 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah it certainly is, but just talking about what it had verbatim for storm 2. It didn't look that bad, but by no means is it comforting seeing a NAM 84 hr solution...lol. Yeah wave 2 could be good on the NAM verbatim (especially Pike on north?)... who knows though. It's the NAM. I felt more comfortable with a part 1 overproducing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Part 2 was about to go to town I think across SNE as the H5 trough approached. It's the NAM in la-la land, but there's decent mid-level frontogenesis over SNE as those upper lows approach. The 850 -10C backs in to the NH/MA border while 0C sits over CT. That ageo flow really gets cranking up here around 81/84hr. Hopefully we don't see the ULLs track through far NNE with time. For mby it concerns me if there's not enough precip up into ME with that big high up there and the ageo NE flow gushing in. I hate those storms that end in virga as low level dry air advects in from Vim Toot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:51 AM, weatherwiz said: NAM isn't too bad for us, no? Seems decent to me 1" qpf with more to come post 84h, with 850 frz line south of us for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:58 AM, litchfieldlibations said: I think the coastal plain has issues with bl temps, snowing in the day, unless precip rates are really good, temps are above freezing at the surface on the nam, gfs and euro. Looked like a great run to me 500 ft on up in the western and eastern hills of ct and northern rhode island, part deux looked like it was going to go boom, as 850s were beginning to crash south and east, nice spot for the lp to form as well. huh? All precip was after 21z and the main part was like 00z to 4-6z ish. It would definitely be dark out for most of the snowfall taking the nam verbaitm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:49 AM, weatherMA said: Actually gives you like 2". oh, heavy flurries then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 2:59 AM, CoastalWx said: I think he meant part 1 which was meh. But anyways, it's the NAM so I really could care less what it shows at 84 hrs. Or 12 for that fact, but verbatim for CT, decent and on the verge of much better. Model wavering up until nowcast time? Never expected a bomb 4-8 over 2 days works fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 On 2/27/2012 at 3:03 AM, weatherMA said: huh? All precip was after 21z and the main part was like 00z to 4-6z ish. It would definitely be dark out for most of the snowfall taking the nam verbaitm. nam has precip in here around or just before noon........?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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